01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nantes to win53%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Ligue 2Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes12°24 km/h
Läs på svenska
NantesPossession control2–3
DunkerquePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Nantes (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+16 %)
Nantes vs Dunkerque · Ligue 2
1 · Nantes 53%X 28%20% Dunkerque · 2
53%
28%
20%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nantes vs Dunkerque (Ligue 2, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Nantes win 53%, draw 28%, Dunkerque win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Nantes 1.59, Dunkerque 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Nantes or draw 80%, Dunkerque or draw 47%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: Nantes – Dunkerque
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record is sparse between Nantes and Dunkerque, making it a less significant factor compared to their current form and underlying numbers. Nantes enter this match with a slight edge based on their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics. They average 1.4 xG per match, notably higher than Dunkerque's 1.1, while also maintaining a solid defensive record with an xGA of 0.85 compared to Dunkerque's 1.5. This suggests a balanced approach favoring the hosts, with an ability to control games through possession and a tactically disciplined defense.
The probabilities and likely scorelines indicate a narrow tilt towards Nantes. The model gives the hosts a 53% chance of winning, with a 12% likelihood of a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 victory. Dunkerque's high press might challenge Nantes, but the latter's possession-oriented style could neutralize this by controlling the game's pace and limiting Dunkerque's attacking opportunities.
Despite both teams' potential to find the net (with a 49% chance for both teams to score), the match leans towards a low-scoring affair. The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 47% for over, suggesting that a tight match is more probable. Dunkerque's tendency to press might leave them vulnerable at the back, yet Nantes' defensive solidity underlines their capacity to withstand these pressures.
For those looking at the betting landscape, there's a clear value opportunity in the under 2.5 goals market. With Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offering odds of 1.98, and the model rating this outcome at 53%, there's a 6% edge to exploit. This aligns well with the analytical expectation of a restrained match, where defenses may just have the upper hand over attacks.
NantesForm DWLWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #4xP/match #6Points #13
Key players
- Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
- Lucas PerrinCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Tylel TatiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
DunkerqueForm LDWLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #12xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Opa SangantéCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Allan LinguetRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Final score
2 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Nantes 53% · Draw 28% · Dunkerque 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DunkerqueBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 16,26fair 22,51-28 %
HitMatchresultat - NantesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,73fair 8,34-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Nantes – Dunkerque
Predicted score matrix
Dunkerque →
Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–17.2%
0–23.6%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.1%
1–112.3%
1–25.7%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.5%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.2%
3–15.0%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,59–0,96
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
@2.18EV+11%
Over 2,547%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nantes to win53%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Thomas Robinet to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Thomas Robinet to score29%
- Opa Sanganté to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.553% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@4.17PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.553% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nantes | X | 2 · Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.58 | EV+ 7% 3.85 | 4.90 |
| LeoVegas | 1.58 | EV+ 11% 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.58 | EV+ 7% 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | EV+ 15% 4.17 | EV+ 3% 5.27 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:37
Odds movement
1-3 %
60 %55 %
1.67 → 1.62
X+7 %
26 %21 %
3.88 → 4.17
2+9 %
21 %16 %
4.85 → 5.27
Over 2,5-2 %
58 %53 %
1.76 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nantes
Dunkerque
Nantes (9–13)
Dunkerque (10–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nantes
Dunkerque
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nantes
Dunkerque
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nantes | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPoints | 11.5 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Nantes | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 395 | 358 |
| Passes against per match | 298 | 382 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.1 | 42.3 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 47 |
| Set pieces | Nantes | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| Other | Nantes | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Maxime Dupé (Nantes) | Mohamet Airam Ramos Wade (Dunkerque) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 20 |
| Save % | 52% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nantes vs Dunkerque according to our model?
The model gives Nantes a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 53%, draw 28%, Dunkerque 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Nantes vs Dunkerque?
The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Nantes and 0.96 for Dunkerque, 2.54 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Nantes or draw (1X) 80%, Dunkerque or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.