01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Laval to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval10°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
LavalPossession controlvs
BoulognePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Laval (47%)
Laval vs Boulogne · Ligue 2
1 · Laval 47%X 27%26% Boulogne · 2
47%
27%
26%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Laval vs Boulogne (Ligue 2, Friday, 30 October 2026): Laval win 47%, draw 27%, Boulogne win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Laval 1.42, Boulogne 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Laval or draw 74%, Boulogne or draw 53%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Laval – Boulogne
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Laval's mastery of possession has been a key factor in their recent performances, and it could once again be the decisive element as they face Boulogne. Laval's expected goals per match sit at a robust 1.5, a testament to their ability to generate scoring opportunities, even if their actual points tally tells a more modest story. Despite having fewer points than Boulogne, Laval has been far more effective in the underlying metrics. This discrepancy between expected performance and actual results suggests that the hosts have been somewhat unlucky and could be poised to convert their dominance into a tangible victory.
The head-to-head record between these sides is limited to just two games, with Laval claiming victory in both encounters. While this small sample size suggests a psychological edge for the hosts, it doesn't weigh as heavily as the more comprehensive data on season form and expected goals. What stands out is Laval's ability to score, supported by their possession control style, which might just have the edge over Boulogne's similar setup.
Boulogne, for their part, have been efficient in translating their chances into points, as evidenced by their current lead in the standings. Their defensive numbers, with an expected goals against of 1.1 per match, show a certain resilience at the back. However, their offensive output of just 0.91 xG per match raises concerns about their ability to consistently threaten Laval's defense. This could be a significant factor, especially given Laval's need to capitalize on their superior xPoints (12.6 compared to Boulogne's 11.9).
With the model probabilities favoring Laval at 47%, and a most likely scoreline tipping towards a 1-1 or 1-0 outcome, the hosts appear to have a slight upper hand. The expected goals figures suggest a match on the lower-scoring side, aligning with the under 2.5 goals probability of 55%. The model's lean toward Laval, combined with their superior underlying performance metrics, points to the hosts as the stronger side in this matchup.
LavalForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #6xP/match #13Points #18
Key players
- William BiandaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
- Sam SannaCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
- Mathis HoudayerCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.14
BoulogneForm DDLDW
League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #16xP/match #10Points #14
Key players
- Abdel HbouchFxG 0.31 · xT 0.11
- Julien BoyerLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
- Theo BruscoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Laval – Boulogne
Predicted score matrix
Boulogne →
Laval →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–18.5%
0–24.7%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.4%
1–113.0%
1–26.7%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.4%
2–18.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.0%
3–14.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.0-19%
Expected goals
1,42–1,07
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.68
Over 2,545%
@2.10
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Laval to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Ethan Clavreul to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Ethan Clavreul to score28%
- Nolan Binet to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Laval47% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Laval47% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Laval47% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Laval | X | 2 · Boulogne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 15% 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 15% 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 15% 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Boulogne win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 3.15 to 2.75 (−13%).
1+11 %
42 %37 %
2.20 → 2.45
X-2 %
32 %27 %
3.15 → 3.10
2-13 %
34 %29 %
3.15 → 2.75
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLaval 2Draw 0Boulogne 0
Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Laval
Boulogne
Laval (13–21)
Boulogne (6–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Laval
Boulogne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Laval
Boulogne
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Laval | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 9 |
| xPoints | 12.6 | 11.9 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.91 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Laval | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 301 |
| Passes against per match | 313 | 401 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.5 | 10.6 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Laval | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.36 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.7 |
| Other | Laval | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Mamadou Samassa (Laval) | Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 25 |
| Save % | 62% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Laval vs Boulogne according to our model?
The model gives Laval a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laval 47%, draw 27%, Boulogne 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Laval vs Boulogne?
The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Laval and 1.07 for Boulogne, 2.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Laval or draw (1X) 74%, Boulogne or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.