01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Metz to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ligue 2Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz9°9 km/h
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MetzPossession controlvs
PauPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Metz (46%)
Metz vs Pau · Ligue 2
1 · Metz 46%X 26%28% Pau · 2
46%
26%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Metz vs Pau (Ligue 2, Friday, 30 October 2026): Metz win 46%, draw 26%, Pau win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Metz 1.59, Pau 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Metz or draw 72%, Pau or draw 54%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.
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Analysis: Metz – Pau
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Pau FC rides a wave of momentum into this clash with Metz, boasting four consecutive wins. This streak contrasts with the hosts' reliance on a traditionally strong home record. Metz claims victory in 59% of their home games historically, but recent form and underlying numbers hint at vulnerabilities. Pau's sharp high press and possession style could disrupt Metz's control-oriented approach, potentially tipping the balance in favor of the visitors.
The metrics reveal a tight contest. While the model leans towards a Metz victory at 46%, Pau's superior points tally and xPoints (17 compared to Metz's 11) suggest a team performing above expectations. The expected goals (xG) figures also offer insight: Pau slightly edges Metz with 1.5 xG per match to 1.4, while defensively, Metz concedes more with 1.6 xGA compared to Pau's 1.1. This defensive edge for Pau, combined with their current form, could be pivotal.
Goals are likely on the agenda, with the probability for over 2.5 goals set at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. Despite Metz's strong home form historically, the expected goals of 1.59 for Metz and 1.46 for Pau indicate a balanced attacking threat from both sides. The most probable scorelines predict a 1-1 draw at 11%, followed by a 2-1 win for Metz at 9% and a 1-2 result favoring Pau at 8%. These figures suggest a potential for a narrow margin outcome.
For those eyeing the betting angle, the over 2.5 goals market presents value. Priced at odds of 1.727 with LeoVegas, this bet offers a 2% edge according to the model. Similarly, Betsafe and Nordicbet list it at 1.72, offering a 1% edge. Given the attacking styles and form, this angle aligns well with the numbers.
MetzForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #16xT #3xP/match #17Points #8
Key players
- Jessy DeminguetCDMxG 0.16 · xT 0.30
- Jean RuizCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.61 · xT 0.01
PauForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #8xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Babacar LeyeFxG 0.60 · xT -0.05
- Anthony BriançonCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
- Jessy BenetCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Metz – Pau
Predicted score matrix
Pau →
Metz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–16.6%
0–25.0%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.3%
1–28.0%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.8%
2–26.4%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.6%
3–23.4%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,59–1,46
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.08
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Metz to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Pape Moussa Fall to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Pape Moussa Fall to score35%
- Believe Munongo to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Metz | X | 2 · Pau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
48 %43 %
1.98 → 2.00
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.35 → 3.45
2-4 %
31 %26 %
3.50 → 3.35
Over 2,5-3 %
57 %52 %
1.73 → 1.68
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Pau FC come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Metz win 59% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Metz
Pau
Metz (16–14)
Pau (13–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Metz
Pau
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Metz
Pau
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Metz | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 17 |
| xPoints | 11 | 17 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Metz | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 391 | 362 |
| Passes against per match | 362 | 391 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.3 | 36.4 |
| Long balls per match | 53 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Metz | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.2 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Other | Metz | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) | Brice Maubleu (Pau) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 33 |
| Save % | 76% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Metz vs Pau according to our model?
The model gives Metz a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 46%, draw 26%, Pau 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Metz vs Pau?
The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Metz and 1.46 for Pau, 3.05 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Metz or draw (1X) 72%, Pau or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.