01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Red Star or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 2Stade Bauer, Saint-Ouen
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Red StarPossession controlvs
NancyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Red Star (44%)
Red Star vs Nancy · Ligue 2
1 · Red Star 44%X 29%28% Nancy · 2
44%
29%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Red Star vs Nancy (Ligue 2, Monday, 2 November 2026): Red Star win 44%, draw 29%, Nancy win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Red Star 1.41, Nancy 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Red Star or draw 72%, Nancy or draw 56%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Red Star – Nancy
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Nancy's impressive four-game winning streak contrasts sharply with the model's preference for the hosts, who hold a 44% probability of victory against the visitors' 28%. Although Nancy edges Red Star in points and expected points, the model leans towards a home win, underlining the subtle balance in play. Red Star's previous victory in their only head-to-head match since 2023 is a slender data point and carries limited weight compared to current form and xG metrics.
The expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Red Star's 1.41 overshadowing Nancy's 1.15 marginally. Both teams are possession-oriented, which might lead to a midfield battle, but Nancy's superior defensive metrics (0.83 xGA vs. Red Star's 0.98) could prove crucial. The most probable scorelines hover around narrow margins—1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 11%—implying limited goal differences and a high chance of a closely contested affair.
The under 2.5 goals appears slightly more probable, with a 53% chance, than the over. Given the model's lean and Nancy's recent form, an assessment might find value in backing Red Star at odds around 2.25 if available, particularly given their slight edge on their home ground.
Red StarForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #7xP/match #4Points #6
Key players
- Samuel RenelCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
- Dylan DurivauxCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
NancyForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Brandon BokangouFxG 0.63 · xT 0.03
- Enzo TacafredLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
- Yannis NahounouCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Red Star – Nancy
Predicted score matrix
Nancy →
Red Star →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–18.5%
0–25.1%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.5%
1–112.9%
1–27.2%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.7%
2–18.9%
2–25.1%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.2%
3–22.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,15
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.73
Over 2,547%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Red Star or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Cheick Mory Konate to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Cheick Mory Konate to score22%
- Nehemiah Fernandez-Veliz to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Red Star | X | 2 · Nancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.20 | 3.15 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.20 | 3.15 | 3.10 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
44 %39 %
2.18 → 2.20
X+2 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.25
20 %
32 %27 %
3.05 → 3.05
Over 2,5+2 %
49 %44 %
1.95 → 2.00
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesRed Star 1Draw 0Nancy 0
Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Nancy come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Red Star
Nancy
Red Star (12–10)
Nancy (12–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Red Star
Nancy
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Red Star
Nancy
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Red Star | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 19 |
| xPoints | 14 | 16.7 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Red Star | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 386 | 413 |
| Passes against per match | 318 | 326 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.4 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Red Star | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.6 |
| Other | Red Star | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) | Enzo Basilio (Nancy) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 20 |
| Save % | 71% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Red Star vs Nancy according to our model?
The model gives Red Star a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star 44%, draw 29%, Nancy 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Red Star vs Nancy?
The model expects 1.41 goals (xG) for Red Star and 1.15 for Nancy, 2.56 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Red Star or draw (1X) 72%, Nancy or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.