Rodez vs Dunkerque Prediction: Home win 51% (30 Oct 2026)

Ligue 230 October 2026Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez8°7 km/h

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RodezPossession & high press

DunkerquePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rodez (51%)

1 · Rodez 51%X 24%25% Dunkerque · 2

51%

24%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rodez vs Dunkerque (Ligue 2, Friday, 30 October 2026): Rodez win 51%, draw 24%, Dunkerque win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Rodez 1.85, Dunkerque 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Rodez or draw 75%, Dunkerque or draw 49%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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Analysis: Rodez – Dunkerque

Anna Karlsson · 25 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Rodez's high-press style might just hold the key to this matchup against Dunkerque. Despite trailing Dunkerque by two points in the standings, the hosts boast a favorable model probability of 51% to win. This edge is rooted in their expected goals (xG) tally, which stands at a notable 1.85 compared to Dunkerque's 1.01. It's a matchup of contrasting strengths: Rodez's aggressive tactics versus Dunkerque's poised possession control.

The head-to-head record between these sides, albeit small with only four encounters, shows an even split with one win apiece and two draws. While these meetings offer insights, they weigh less than the current form and expected goals. Rodez's slight advantage in xG per match (1.3 versus 1.2) suggests that they might find a way past Dunkerque's defense, even as the visitors hold a marginally better defensive record with 1.6 xGA per match.

Model predictions lean towards a tight affair, with scorelines like 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 all highly probable. Yet, the expected goals suggest Rodez could edge it, potentially 2-1. The over/under 2.5 goals market is particularly intriguing: despite a 55% chance of surpassing this mark, there's value in backing the under. With LeoVegas offering odds of 2.4 and the model assessing the true probability at 45%, there's a notable 9% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet present similar value at odds of 2.38 for the under.

In essence, while Rodez seems primed to clinch a narrow victory, the real opportunity lies in the under 2.5 goals market. Given the tactical clash and model insights, it’s a bet worth considering for those looking to capitalize on an edge in the numbers.

Rodez

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #2xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Raphaël LipinskiCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Loni LaurentCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

Dunkerque

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #12xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Gaëtan RobailFxG 0.35 · xT 0.17
Allan LinguetRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Opa SangantéCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Rodez – Dunkerque

Predicted score matrix

Dunkerque →

Rodez →

0–06.0%

0–15.4%

0–22.9%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.2%

1–111.0%

1–25.4%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.8%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.0%

3–16.1%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.3%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,85–1,01

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.30EV+3%

Over 2,555%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rodez to win51%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rodez to win51%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Mathis Touho to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Mathis Touho to score28%
Bram Lagae to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Rodez51% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Rodez51% probability@2.15NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
1 · Rodez51% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rodez	X	2 · Dunkerque
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 2.15	3.40	3.00
LeoVegas	EV+ 9% 2.12	3.45	3.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 2.15	3.40	3.00

Odds updated 26 Oct, 14:35

Odds movement

1+3 %

46 %41 %

2.05 → 2.12

X-5 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.45

2-2 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 3.00

Over 2,5+2 %

63 %58 %

1.52 → 1.55

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rodez 1Draw 2Dunkerque 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rodez

Dunkerque

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rodez (16–22)

Dunkerque (14–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rodez

Dunkerque

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rodez

Dunkerque

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rodez	Dunkerque
Points	10	12
xPoints	12.7	12.4
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.3

Playing style	Rodez	Dunkerque
Build-up efficiency	0.38	0.31
Field tilt	0.47	0.44
xT per match	1.3	1
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.2
Entries into the box per match	14	9
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.73
Passes per match	302	356
Passes against per match	408	380
Switches of play per match	27.1	41.6
Long balls per match	32	46

Set pieces	Rodez	Dunkerque
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.05
Corners per match	6.4	4.8
Corners against per match	4.7	5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.63

Other	Rodez	Dunkerque
Throw-in control	0.81	0.72

The goalkeepers	Lucas Margueron (Rodez)	Mohamet Airam Ramos Wade (Dunkerque)
Saves	12	30
Save %	52%	75%
xG prevented	20%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rodez

Fixtures, form & tips

Dunkerque

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rodez vs Dunkerque according to our model?

The model gives Rodez a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rodez 51%, draw 24%, Dunkerque 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Rodez vs Dunkerque?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Rodez and 1.01 for Dunkerque, 2.87 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Rodez or draw (1X) 75%, Dunkerque or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.