Nantes vs Clermont Prediction: Home win 59% (30 Oct 2026)

Ligue 230 October 2026Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes10°12 km/h

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NantesPossession & high press

ClermontPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nantes (59%)Best value by the model: 2 · Clermont @ 7.00 (+13 %)

1 · Nantes 59%X 25%16% Clermont · 2

59%

25%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nantes vs Clermont (Ligue 2, Friday, 30 October 2026): Nantes win 59%, draw 25%, Clermont win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Nantes 1.71, Clermont 0.90. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Nantes or draw 84%, Clermont or draw 41%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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Analysis: Nantes – Clermont

Erik Lindberg · 25 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: With a solid 59% chance of securing victory, Nantes emerges as the clear favorite against Clermont, as indicated by the model. The numbers lean heavily toward the hosts, with expected goals showing a sizable advantage: 1.71 for Nantes compared to Clermont's 0.90. Recent performances back this up, with Nantes outperforming Clermont in both xPoints and xG metrics. The hosts showcase a more effective balance between offensive potency and defensive resilience, allowing only 0.92 xGA per match, a notable contrast to the visitors' 1.6.

Though the model's probabilities paint a picture of a controlled display, the most likely outcomes suggest a narrow affair. Both the 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines hold a 12% likelihood, indicating a slim margin where Nantes’ defensive stability might just edge out Clermont's efforts. The underwhelming 48% chance for over 2.5 goals reflects an expected cautious approach on both ends, aligning with the tactical profiles of possession and high press from Nantes and possession control from Clermont.

While Nantes’ form and metrics suggest a victory, the value bet emerges in the draw at odds of 4.3 with LeoVegas. The model rates this outcome at 25%, giving a 6% edge — a tempting prospect given the narrow predicted scorelines and the inherent uncertainty in football. However, bettors eyeing high-risk returns might also consider Clermont's away win, offered at odds of 6.4 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, albeit with a smaller 3% edge.

In essence, a pragmatic lens points to a disciplined Nantes win, likely a 1-0 finish. Yet, for those willing to entertain variance, the draw offers a tantalizing value angle, underscoring the nuanced balance of risk and reward in this matchup.

Nantes

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #4xP/match #8Points #15

Key players

Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
Johann Théo Tom LepenantCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Saidou SowCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Clermont

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #15xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Nantes – Clermont

Predicted score matrix

Clermont →

Nantes →

0–07.7%

0–16.3%

0–23.0%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.2%

1–111.7%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.7%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.1%

3–15.5%

3–22.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.8%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,71–0,90

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.08EV+7%

Over 2,548%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nantes to win59%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nantes to win59%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Bahmed Deuff to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Bahmed Deuff to score29%
Ethan Kena Kabeya to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Clermont16% probability@7.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Clermont16% probability@7.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
2 · Clermont16% probability@6.75LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nantes	X	2 · Clermont
Betsafe	1.39	EV+ 6% 4.30	EV+ 13% 7.00
LeoVegas	1.40	EV+ 9% 4.40	EV+ 9% 6.75
Nordicbet	1.39	EV+ 6% 4.30	EV+ 13% 7.00

Odds updated 26 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.67 (−6%).

1-3 %

67 %62 %

1.44 → 1.40

X+2 %

24 %19 %

4.30 → 4.40

2+8 %

17 %12 %

6.25 → 6.75

Over 2,5-6 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.67

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nantes

Clermont

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nantes (11–17)

Clermont (9–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nantes

Clermont

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nantes

Clermont

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nantes	Clermont
Points	8	7
xPoints	14	10.2
xG per match	1.3	0.82
xGA per match	0.92	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.35

Playing style	Nantes	Clermont
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.59	0.39
xT per match	1.3	0.9
xTA per match	0.73	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	28	20
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.19
Entries into the box per match	14	9
Entries into the box against	8	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	381	422
Passes against per match	318	403
Switches of play per match	26.5	29.8
Long balls per match	37	34

Set pieces	Nantes	Clermont
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.01
Corners per match	5.6	4.5
Corners against per match	4.2	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.53

Other	Nantes	Clermont
Throw-in control	0.75	0.74

The goalkeepers	Maxime Dupé (Nantes)	Theo Guivarch (Clermont)
Saves	13	28
Save %	52%	68%
xG prevented	46%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nantes

Fixtures, form & tips

Clermont

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nantes vs Clermont according to our model?

The model gives Nantes a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 59%, draw 25%, Clermont 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Nantes vs Clermont?

The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Nantes and 0.90 for Clermont, 2.61 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Nantes or draw (1X) 84%, Clermont or draw (X2) 41% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.