Alemannia Aachen vs Preussen Münster Prediction: Home win 54% (1 Nov 2026)

3. Liga1 November 20268°1,0 mm7 km/h

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Alemannia AachenLow block & direct

Preussen MünsterPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Alemannia Aachen (54%)

1 · Alemannia Aachen 54%X 23%23% Preussen Münster · 2

54%

23%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Alemannia Aachen vs Preussen Münster (3. Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Alemannia Aachen win 54%, draw 23%, Preussen Münster win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Alemannia Aachen 1.89, Preussen Münster 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Alemannia Aachen or draw 77%, Preussen Münster or draw 46%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Alemannia Aachen – Preussen Münster

Sofia Andersson · 23 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: With Alemannia Aachen poised to meet Preussen Münster, the numbers reveal a clash of contrasting styles. Aachen's tendency for low defensive setups coupled with direct attacks will test Münster's possession-heavy approach. The model sees Aachen as favourites with a 54% chance of victory, and it's easy to see why. Their edge in both points and expected points underscores a more consistent season so far.

The likelihood of a tight affair is reflected in the most probable scorelines, with 1-1 and 2-1 both sitting at 10%. However, Aachen's expected goals (1.89) suggest they might edge past Münster's 1.31 xG. This leans towards a 2-1 win for the hosts, especially considering their ability to convert chances. The 62% probability for over 2.5 goals aligns with an open game, though Münster's ball control might temper this unless Aachen can break effectively.

Aachen's slight superiority in xG per match (1.6 vs. Münster's 1.2) and marginally better xGA (1.5 vs. 1.6) suggest a nuanced advantage. Their direct play could exploit gaps if Münster overcommits to possession. With both teams likely to find the net (62% probability), the balance may tip in Aachen's favour if their directness proves effective while Münster holds the ball.

For bettors, the value lies in backing Aachen's win at odds of 54% implied, which might not be fully reflected in bookmaker prices. Coupling this with an over 2.5 goals bet seems the sharpest angle, given the expected dynamics. The numbers hint at a 2-1 result for Aachen, positioning their directness as the potential match-winner.

Alemannia Aachen

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #12xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Lukas ScepanikRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
Matti WagnerLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.21
Mehdi LouneCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.13

Preussen Münster

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #20xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Torge PaetowCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Ryan JohanssonFxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
Felix HiglFxG 0.28 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Alemannia Aachen – Preussen Münster

Predicted score matrix

Preussen Münster →

Alemannia Aachen →

0–04.4%

0–15.1%

0–23.5%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.4%

1–110.4%

1–26.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.5%

2–26.2%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.6%

3–16.0%

3–23.9%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.3%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.1-07%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,89–1,31

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Alemannia Aachen to win54%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Alemannia Aachen to win54%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Georg Ermolaev to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Marvin Schulz to score22%
Danilo Wiebe to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alemannia Aachen

Preussen Münster

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alemannia Aachen (15–16)

Preussen Münster (18–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alemannia Aachen

Preussen Münster

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alemannia Aachen

Preussen Münster

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alemannia Aachen	Preussen Münster
Points	14	12
xPoints	15.1	12.5
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.22

Playing style	Alemannia Aachen	Preussen Münster
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.26
Field tilt	0.57	0.39
xT per match	1	0.65
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.72	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.68
Passes per match	322	290
Passes against per match	324	368
Switches of play per match	16.9	17
Long balls per match	26	31

Set pieces	Alemannia Aachen	Preussen Münster
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.05
Corners per match	4.8	3.6
Corners against per match	3.4	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.66

Other	Alemannia Aachen	Preussen Münster
Throw-in control	0.74	0.74

The goalkeepers	Stefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen)	Morten Jens Behrens (Preussen Münster)
Saves	16	21
Save %	67%	50%
xG prevented	64%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alemannia Aachen

Fixtures, form & tips

Preussen Münster

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alemannia Aachen vs Preussen Münster according to our model?

The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alemannia Aachen 54%, draw 23%, Preussen Münster 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Alemannia Aachen vs Preussen Münster?

The model expects 1.89 goals (xG) for Alemannia Aachen and 1.31 for Preussen Münster, 3.20 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Alemannia Aachen or draw (1X) 77%, Preussen Münster or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.