Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock Prediction: Away win 38% (31 Oct 2026)

3. Liga31 October 20267°13 km/h

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Jahn RegensburgLow block & direct

Hansa RostockPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Hansa Rostock (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Jahn Regensburg @ 2.96 (+7 %)

1 · Jahn Regensburg 36%X 25%38% Hansa Rostock · 2

36%

25%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock (3. Liga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Jahn Regensburg win 36%, draw 25%, Hansa Rostock win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Jahn Regensburg 1.61, Hansa Rostock 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Jahn Regensburg or draw 62%, Hansa Rostock or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Jahn Regensburg – Hansa Rostock

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

In this matchup, the narrow margins are the story. FC Hansa Rostock holds a slight edge in several key metrics, with a razor-thin advantage in both points and expected points. The model leans towards the visitors with a 38% chance of victory, compared to Jahn Regensburg's 36%. The hosts' low-defense, direct style contrasts with Rostock's possession-focused approach, setting up an intriguing tactical battle.

The head-to-head record since 2024 is split evenly, with each side winning one of the two meetings, so neither team can claim a historical edge; this small sample can't overshadow Rostock's current form. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, though, with Regensburg at 1.61 and Rostock at 1.46. This indicates a high probability of goals, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score. However, the tactical discrepancy might suppress the attacking flow, potentially keeping the scorelines more conservative.

The numbers point to a marginal Hansa Rostock victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, with 2-1 close behind at 9%. With the odds reflecting this balance, bettors might find value in backing Rostock, particularly with select bookmakers offering odds that suggest a profitable edge.

Jahn Regensburg

Form LDWDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #3xP/match #11Points #18

Key players

Oscar SchönfelderLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Lucas HermesFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.18

Hansa Rostock

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #10xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Florian CarstensCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Lukas WallnerCBxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
Bernie LennemannRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Jahn Regensburg – Hansa Rostock

Predicted score matrix

Hansa Rostock →

Jahn Regensburg →

0–05.0%

0–16.5%

0–25.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.1%

1–111.2%

1–28.0%

1–33.9%

1–4+2.0%

2–06.0%

2–18.8%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.2%

3–14.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,61–1,46

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.38

Over 2,559%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hansa Rostock or draw (X2)59%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hansa Rostock or draw (X2)59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Benno Johannes Dietze to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Nassim Boujellab to score23%
Marco Schuster to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Jahn Regensburg36% probability@2.96PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
1 · Jahn Regensburg36% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · Jahn Regensburg36% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jahn Regensburg	X	2 · Hansa Rostock
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 2.90	3.60	2.12
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 2.90	3.60	2.12
Pinnacle	EV+ 7% 2.96	3.74	2.15

Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59

Odds movement

1+2 %

34 %29 %

2.89 → 2.96

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.72 → 3.74

2-2 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.15

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jahn Regensburg 1Draw 0Hansa Rostock 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jahn Regensburg

Hansa Rostock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jahn Regensburg (20–19)

Hansa Rostock (17–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jahn Regensburg

Hansa Rostock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jahn Regensburg

Hansa Rostock

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jahn Regensburg	Hansa Rostock
Points	10	15
xPoints	14	14.6
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.26

Playing style	Jahn Regensburg	Hansa Rostock
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.5	0.53
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.22
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	363	340
Passes against per match	419	347
Switches of play per match	23.8	26.3
Long balls per match	33	38

Set pieces	Jahn Regensburg	Hansa Rostock
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	3.9	5.5
Corners against per match	4.3	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.57

Other	Jahn Regensburg	Hansa Rostock
Throw-in control	0.74	0.82

The goalkeepers	Hannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg)	Luca Unbehaun (Hansa Rostock)
Saves	20	32
Save %	51%	63%
xG prevented	30%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jahn Regensburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Hansa Rostock

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock according to our model?

The model gives Hansa Rostock a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jahn Regensburg 36%, draw 25%, Hansa Rostock 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?

The model expects 1.61 goals (xG) for Jahn Regensburg and 1.46 for Hansa Rostock, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Jahn Regensburg or draw (1X) 62%, Hansa Rostock or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.