01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Duisburg to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
3. Liga9°0,4 mm9 km/h
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DuisburgLow block & directvs
VfB Stuttgart IIPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Duisburg (66%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 3.40 (+5 %)
Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II · 3. Liga
1 · Duisburg 66%X 19%15% VfB Stuttgart II · 2
66%
19%
15%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II (3. Liga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Duisburg win 66%, draw 19%, VfB Stuttgart II win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Duisburg 2.47, VfB Stuttgart II 1.21. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Duisburg or draw 85%, VfB Stuttgart II or draw 34%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Duisburg – VfB Stuttgart II
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The over 2.5 goals market is heated, with a 71% chance suggesting a higher-scoring affair. This aligns with the expectation that both teams have a 64% likelihood to find the net. However, Duisburg’s direct, high-scoring approach and Stuttgart II’s inefficiency in front of goal will likely cap the visitors' scoring. The 2-1 prediction feels solid, with Duisburg's firepower holding sway.
MSV Duisburg's attack, which has kept the scoreboard ticking in 11 consecutive matches, is expected to test the resolve of VfB Stuttgart II's defense. With an expected goals tally of 2.47 for the hosts, Duisburg’s penchant for finding the net seems likely to continue. The home side's unbeaten run in the last five league fixtures underpins their consistency, a quality Stuttgart II's possession-heavy style might struggle to counter.
The model favors Duisburg heavily with a 66% win probability, implying a clear edge. Despite Stuttgart II's attempts at controlling play through possession, their xG of 0.92 per match reflects a struggle to convert dominance into chances. This points to a potentially frustrating evening for the visitors, who have only accumulated 14 points compared to Duisburg’s 25. The numbers also show a marked difference in xPoints and xGA, strengthening the case for Duisburg as the more robust unit.
Given Duisburg's historical home performance—winning 75% of their matches—and their clean sweep in the small head-to-head sample, the scales tip further. Although just two past encounters, they suggest Duisburg knows how to manage these fixtures. The most probable scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 hint at a match where the hosts dictate terms, likely edging past Stuttgart II with a clinical display.
DuisburgForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #8xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.08
- Conor NoßRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
- Peter RemmertFxG 0.97 · xT 0.05
VfB Stuttgart IIForm LDDWW
League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #19xP/match #20Points #7
Key players
- Alexander GroissCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Nicolas SessaCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
- Lauri Lukas PennaRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Duisburg – VfB Stuttgart II
Predicted score matrix
VfB Stuttgart II →
Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.7%
0–12.8%
0–21.8%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–06.0%
1–17.8%
1–24.5%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–07.7%
2–19.3%
2–25.6%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–06.4%
3–17.7%
3–24.6%
3–31.9%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–07.1%
4+–18.5%
4+–25.2%
4+–32.1%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-18%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.3-06%
Expected goals
2,47–1,21
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,70
19%
217%
321%
419%
5+31%
Under 2,529%
@2.62
Over 2,571%
@1.44EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Duisburg to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals71%
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals71%
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score34%
- Alexander Groiß to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.531% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Over 4.531% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Over 3.550% probability@2.09PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Duisburg | X | 2 · VfB Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.77 | 5.59 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Duisburg win since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 1.56 to 1.45 (−7%).
1-7 %
66 %56 %
1.56 → 1.45
X+10 %
25 %15 %
4.34 → 4.77
2+23 %
23 %13 %
4.54 → 5.59
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDuisburg 2Draw 0VfB Stuttgart II 0
Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- MSV Duisburg have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- MSV Duisburg win 75% of their home matches all-time (24 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Duisburg
VfB Stuttgart II
Duisburg (27–12)
VfB Stuttgart II (17–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Duisburg
VfB Stuttgart II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Duisburg
VfB Stuttgart II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Duisburg | VfB Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 14 |
| xPoints | 19.3 | 7.6 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 0.92 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.46 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Duisburg | VfB Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 336 | 391 |
| Passes against per match | 404 | 294 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.4 | 23.1 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Duisburg | VfB Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.2 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.62 |
| Other | Duisburg | VfB Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Maximilian Braune (Duisburg) | Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 32 |
| Save % | 80% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Verl – Wehen Wiesbaden31 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Hansa Rostock31 October 2026
- Hoffenheim II – Viktoria Köln31 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Rot-Weiss Essen1 November 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Preussen Münster1 November 2026
- Saarbrücken – Waldhof Mannheim1 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?
The model gives Duisburg a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Duisburg 66%, draw 19%, VfB Stuttgart II 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II?
The model expects 2.47 goals (xG) for Duisburg and 1.21 for VfB Stuttgart II, 3.68 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Duisburg or draw (1X) 85%, VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.