Havelse vs Ingolstadt Prediction: Away win 49% (31 Oct 2026)

3. Liga31 October 2026

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HavelseCounter-attacks & crosses

IngolstadtPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ingolstadt (49%)

1 · Havelse 29%X 22%49% Ingolstadt · 2

29%

22%

49%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Havelse vs Ingolstadt (3. Liga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Havelse win 29%, draw 22%, Ingolstadt win 49%. Expected goals (xG): Havelse 1.25, Ingolstadt 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Havelse or draw 51%, Ingolstadt or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Havelse – Ingolstadt

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: In this clash, Ingolstadt's well-drilled possession game meets Havelse's defensive frailties. The visitors have a clear edge in form and expected goals, illustrated by their superior points tally (14 to Havelse's 6) and xPoints (13.1 to 9.9). Ingolstadt's ability to control possession could well dictate the flow of the game, exposing Havelse's leaky defense that concedes 2.2 xGA per match.

Havelse, relying on counter attacks and crosses, will need to be exceptionally clinical to overcome Ingolstadt’s disciplined backline. The hosts generate only 1.0 xG per match, suggesting that their attacking efforts may fall short against Ingolstadt, who allow just 1.8 xGA. Despite the modest attacking output from both sides, the model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities rather than attacking prowess.

The head-to-head record between these teams is sparse, so current form and expected goals carry more weight. Ingolstadt's balanced approach gives them a significant upper hand, reflected in a model probability of 49% for an away victory, compared to 29% for Havelse. A 1-2 or 0-1 scoreline in favor of the visitors seems likely, with Ingolstadt's structured play poised to exploit Havelse's defensive lapses.

While nothing is certain, this appears to be a prudent play for those who favor a cautious, well-supported bet. As always, betting responsibly is key, but the numbers suggest that siding with Ingolstadt could indeed pay the bills.

Havelse

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #18xP/match #18Points #20

Key players

Robin VelascoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
Kwasi Okyere WriedtFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
Alexander GuiddirFxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Ingolstadt

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #14xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Simon LorenzCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Yannick DeichmannRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
Georgios AntzoulasCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Havelse – Ingolstadt

Predicted score matrix

Ingolstadt →

Havelse →

0–06.1%

0–18.9%

0–27.4%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.3%

1–06.8%

1–111.9%

1–29.3%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.5%

2–17.2%

2–25.8%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.9%

3–13.0%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,25–1,61

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ingolstadt to win49%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ingolstadt to win49%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Lars Lokotsch to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Kwasi Okyere Wriedt to score25%
Johann Berger to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Havelse

Ingolstadt

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Havelse (13–23)

Ingolstadt (13–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Havelse

Ingolstadt

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Havelse

Ingolstadt

The teams in numbers

Performance	Havelse	Ingolstadt
Points	6	14
xPoints	9.9	13.1
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	2.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.29

Playing style	Havelse	Ingolstadt
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.35
xT per match	0.91	1
xTA per match	1.8	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	18	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.26
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	18	16
Pass completion %	0.73	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.65
Passes per match	299	267
Passes against per match	387	375
Switches of play per match	19.4	17.7
Long balls per match	31	33

Set pieces	Havelse	Ingolstadt
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.06
Corners per match	3.5	4.1
Corners against per match	5.3	6.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.61

Other	Havelse	Ingolstadt
Throw-in control	0.71	0.74

The goalkeepers	Omer Hanin (Havelse)	David Klein (Ingolstadt)
Saves	30	42
Save %	67%	74%
xG prevented	44%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Havelse

Fixtures, form & tips

Ingolstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Havelse vs Ingolstadt according to our model?

The model gives Ingolstadt a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Havelse 29%, draw 22%, Ingolstadt 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Havelse vs Ingolstadt?

The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Havelse and 1.61 for Ingolstadt, 2.86 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Havelse or draw (1X) 51%, Ingolstadt or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.