Ingolstadt vs Duisburg: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

3. Liga24 October 20268°27 km/h

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IngolstadtPossession control

2–1

DuisburgLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Duisburg (53%)

1 · Ingolstadt 22%X 24%53% Duisburg · 2

22%

24%

53%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ingolstadt vs Duisburg (3. Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Ingolstadt win 22%, draw 24%, Duisburg win 53%. Expected goals (xG): Ingolstadt 1.11, Duisburg 1.88. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Ingolstadt or draw 47%, Duisburg or draw 78%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Ingolstadt – Duisburg

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Two matches don't tell the full story, but Duisburg holds a slight edge in their head-to-head with Ingolstadt since 2024, with one draw and a win. More telling, however, is Duisburg's recent form. They remain unbeaten in their last five league outings, a clear signal of their momentum. Meanwhile, Ingolstadt's possession-oriented style faces a tough test against the visitors' low defence and direct play. Duisburg has found the net in 11 straight league matches, underscoring their attacking consistency.

The numbers heavily favor the visitors. Duisburg boasts superior xG and xGA figures, averaging 2.2 expected goals per game compared to the hosts' 1.3, while keeping their expected goals against lower at 1.2 versus Ingolstadt's 1.8. These metrics align with the model, which leans towards a Duisburg victory with a 53% probability. The most likely scoreline, a tight 1-1 or a 1-2, suggests a competitive encounter but still edges towards a Duisburg triumph.

Further supporting a higher goal count is the model's projection for over 2.5 goals at 57%, alongside both teams scoring at the same rate. Despite Ingolstadt's ability to control possession, Duisburg's efficient direct approach should see them pierce the hosts' defense at least once. With an expected goals tally of 1.88 for the visitors, they are well-positioned to capitalize on their chances.

The sharpest angle here is betting on Duisburg to win at odds of 2.02, available with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model's valuation gives this bet an 8% edge, marking it as a standout opportunity given the disparities in form and underlying metrics. Duisburg's unbeaten streak and scoring reliability make them the value play in this clash.

Ingolstadt

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #14xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Simon LorenzCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Yannick DeichmannRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
Georgios AntzoulasCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14

Duisburg

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #8xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.08
Conor NoßRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
Peter RemmertFxG 0.97 · xT 0.05

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ingolstadt 22% · Draw 24% · Duisburg 53%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MSV DuisburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,34fair 5,73-7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC Ingolstadt 04Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,57fair 16,35-54 %

Miss

Match prediction: Ingolstadt – Duisburg

Predicted score matrix

Duisburg →

Ingolstadt →

0–05.3%

0–19.1%

0–28.9%

0–35.6%

0–4+4.0%

1–05.3%

1–110.8%

1–29.9%

1–36.2%

1–4+4.5%

2–03.1%

2–15.8%

2–25.5%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.1%

3–12.2%

3–22.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,11–1,88

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.25

Over 2,557%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Duisburg to win53%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Duisburg to win53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score26%
Rasim Bulić to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Duisburg53% probability@2.15LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
2 · Duisburg53% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
2 · Duisburg53% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ingolstadt	X	2 · Duisburg
Betsafe	3.05	3.40	EV+ 13% 2.12
LeoVegas	2.95	3.45	EV+ 15% 2.15
Nordicbet	3.05	3.40	EV+ 13% 2.12
Pinnacle	3.16	3.69	EV+ 14% 2.14

Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.16

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.68 → 3.69

2+4 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ingolstadt 0Draw 1Duisburg 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

Key facts

MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
MSV Duisburg have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ingolstadt

Duisburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ingolstadt (13–15)

Duisburg (27–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

Duisburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ingolstadt

Duisburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ingolstadt	Duisburg
Points	14	25
xPoints	13.1	19.3
xG per match	1.3	2.2
xGA per match	1.8	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.26

Playing style	Ingolstadt	Duisburg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.48
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.69	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.72
Passes per match	267	336
Passes against per match	375	404
Switches of play per match	17.7	19.4
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	Ingolstadt	Duisburg
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.08
Corners per match	4.1	5.9
Corners against per match	6.8	3.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.5

Other	Ingolstadt	Duisburg
Throw-in control	0.74	0.73

The goalkeepers	David Klein (Ingolstadt)	Maximilian Braune (Duisburg)
Saves	42	36
Save %	74%	80%
xG prevented	48%	70%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ingolstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Duisburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ingolstadt vs Duisburg according to our model?

The model gives Duisburg a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ingolstadt 22%, draw 24%, Duisburg 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Ingolstadt vs Duisburg?

The model expects 1.11 goals (xG) for Ingolstadt and 1.88 for Duisburg, 2.99 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Ingolstadt or draw (1X) 47%, Duisburg or draw (X2) 78% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.