Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II Prediction: Home win 49% (25 Oct 2026)

3. Liga25 October 202611°9,7 mm22 km/h

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Waldhof MannheimCounter-attacks & crosses

Hoffenheim IIPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Waldhof Mannheim (49%)

1 · Waldhof Mannheim 49%X 24%28% Hoffenheim II · 2

49%

24%

28%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II (3. Liga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Waldhof Mannheim win 49%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim II win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Waldhof Mannheim 1.89, Hoffenheim II 1.52. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Waldhof Mannheim or draw 72%, Hoffenheim II or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Waldhof Mannheim – Hoffenheim II

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

49%: that's the crucial number as Waldhof Mannheim prepares to host Hoffenheim II. The model favors the home side just barely, despite the visitors’ advantage in points and expected goals per match. Hoffenheim II’s slight edge in xG, averaging 1.9 per game compared to Mannheim's 1.4, highlights their attacking potency. Yet, the hosts boast a marginally better defense, with xGA at 1.2 against the visitors' 1.3.

The head-to-head record is thin, with just two past encounters, making current form and expected goals more telling. While Hoffenheim II leads in points and xPoints, the model still leans towards Mannheim, possibly influenced by their counter-attacking style that could exploit Hoffenheim II’s possession-focused approach. The rain forecast might dampen attacking opportunities, yet the over 2.5 goals probability remains high at 66%. It's a tantalizing mix of defensive resilience versus offensive flair.

For those scrutinizing the betting landscape, there’s intriguing value on the home side. Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 2.18 on a Mannheim victory, revealing a 6% edge according to the model's 49% win probability. With these odds, a tight 2-1 win for the hosts seems a tempting prospect.

Waldhof Mannheim

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #3xT #5xP/match #12Points #11

Key players

Favour Jidechi OkekeRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.26
Moritz Malik PolteCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Maximilian ThalhammerCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.11

Hoffenheim II

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Valentin LassigCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Natnael AbrahaRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Klaus GjasulaCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Waldhof Mannheim – Hoffenheim II

Predicted score matrix

Hoffenheim II →

Waldhof Mannheim →

0–03.6%

0–14.8%

0–23.8%

0–31.9%

0–4+1.0%

1–06.0%

1–19.8%

1–27.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.9%

2–19.0%

2–26.8%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.7%

3–15.7%

3–24.3%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.7%

4+–14.1%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,89–1,52

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.58

Over 2,566%

@1.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Waldhof Mannheim to win49%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Waldhof Mannheim to win49%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Maximilian Thalhammer to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Maximilian Thalhammer to score26%
Luis Engelns to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Waldhof Mannheim49% probability@2.30PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
1 · Waldhof Mannheim49% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
1 · Waldhof Mannheim49% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Waldhof Mannheim	X	2 · Hoffenheim II
Betsafe	EV+ 8% 2.22	3.60	2.72
LeoVegas	EV+ 7% 2.20	3.60	2.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 8% 2.22	3.60	2.72
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 2.30	3.92	2.74

Odds updated 25 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1+7 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.30

X-1 %

26 %21 %

3.97 → 3.92

2-3 %

36 %31 %

2.82 → 2.74

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Waldhof Mannheim 0Draw 1Hoffenheim II 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Waldhof Mannheim

Hoffenheim II

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Waldhof Mannheim (16–16)

Hoffenheim II (20–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Waldhof Mannheim

Hoffenheim II

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Waldhof Mannheim

Hoffenheim II

The teams in numbers

Performance	Waldhof Mannheim	Hoffenheim II
Points	13	16
xPoints	14	15.4
xG per match	1.4	1.9
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.27

Playing style	Waldhof Mannheim	Hoffenheim II
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.53	0.58
xT per match	1.3	1.3
xTA per match	0.88	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	25
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	17
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	336	369
Passes against per match	315	277
Switches of play per match	25.8	22.1
Long balls per match	39	41

Set pieces	Waldhof Mannheim	Hoffenheim II
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	4.6	4.8
Corners against per match	5.4	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.56

Other	Waldhof Mannheim	Hoffenheim II
Throw-in control	0.72	0.77

The goalkeepers	Thijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis (Waldhof Mannheim)	Lúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (Hoffenheim II)
Saves	26	25
Save %	68%	69%
xG prevented	61%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Waldhof Mannheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Hoffenheim II

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II according to our model?

The model gives Waldhof Mannheim a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waldhof Mannheim 49%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim II 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II?

The model expects 1.89 goals (xG) for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.52 for Hoffenheim II, 3.41 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Waldhof Mannheim or draw (1X) 72%, Hoffenheim II or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.