Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Köln Prediction: Home win 38% (25 Oct 2026)

3. Liga25 October 202610°19,6 mm39 km/h

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Preussen MünsterPossession control

Fortuna KölnPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Preussen Münster (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.61 (+9 %)

1 · Preussen Münster 38%X 30%32% Fortuna Köln · 2

38%

30%

32%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Köln (3. Liga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Preussen Münster win 38%, draw 30%, Fortuna Köln win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Preussen Münster 1.35, Fortuna Köln 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Preussen Münster or draw 68%, Fortuna Köln or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Preussen Münster – Fortuna Köln

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Recent form and expected goals show both sides with a balanced approach. The hosts hold a slight edge in points but trail in expected points, hinting at some overperformance.

Münster's strength lies in their possession control, a style mirrored by the visitors, Fortuna. This matchup may well turn into a tactical battle for midfield dominance. Despite Münster's marginal lead in xG per match at 1.2 over Fortuna's 1.1, they also concede more, averaging 1.6 xGA compared to the visitors’ 1.4. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, and with rain likely to suppress free-flowing football, a high-scoring outcome seems less probable.

The model sees slight value in backing Münster, giving them a 38% chance of winning, while the most probable scoreline sits at 1-1, occurring 13% of the time. A narrow 1-0 victory for the home side is next at 10%, underscoring the fine margins at play. The probability for over 2.5 goals is below average at 48%, reinforcing the cautious outlook on a goal-fest.

For bettors, there's value in the under markets here. LeoVegas offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.952, with the model suggesting a modest 1% edge as it calculates a 52% likelihood of this outcome. If you prefer a bit more security, the under 3.5 market also presents a 1% edge at odds of 1.364, rated by the model at 74%. The numbers point toward a low-scoring draw or a narrow win, making these under bets particularly appealing.

Preussen Münster

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #20xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Torge PaetowCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Ryan JohanssonFxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
Felix HiglFxG 0.28 · xT 0.07

Fortuna Köln

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #16xP/match #13Points #19

Key players

Bennit BrögerFxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
David Kamm Al-AzzaweCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
Romeo AigbekaenLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Preussen Münster – Fortuna Köln

Predicted score matrix

Fortuna Köln →

Preussen Münster →

0–07.8%

0–18.9%

0–25.8%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.7%

1–112.9%

1–27.8%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.8%

2–18.5%

2–25.3%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.1%

3–13.8%

3–22.4%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,35–1,24

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.04EV+1%

Over 2,548%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Preussen Münster or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Preussen Münster or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Marvin Schulz to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Marvin Schulz to score29%
David Kamm Al-Azzawe to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
2 · Fortuna Köln32% probability@3.30PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Preussen Münster	X	2 · Fortuna Köln
LeoVegas	2.15	3.30	3.00
Pinnacle	2.11	EV+ 9% 3.61	EV+ 4% 3.30

Odds updated 25 Oct, 08:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

47 %42 %

2.13 → 2.11

X+6 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.61

2+5 %

32 %27 %

3.14 → 3.30

Over 2,5-1 %

55 %50 %

1.80 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Köln

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Preussen Münster (18–21)

Fortuna Köln (8–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Köln

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Köln

The teams in numbers

Performance	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Köln
Points	12	10
xPoints	12.5	13.7
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.24

Playing style	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Köln
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.36
Field tilt	0.39	0.38
xT per match	0.65	0.93
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.65
Passes per match	290	280
Passes against per match	368	404
Switches of play per match	17	24.2
Long balls per match	31	38

Set pieces	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Köln
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	3.6	4.1
Corners against per match	4.7	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.58

Other	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Köln
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Morten Jens Behrens (Preussen Münster)	Lennart Winkler (Fortuna Köln)
Saves	21	35
Save %	50%	78%
xG prevented	24%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Preussen Münster

Fixtures, form & tips

Fortuna Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Köln according to our model?

The model gives Preussen Münster a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preussen Münster 38%, draw 30%, Fortuna Köln 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Köln?

The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Preussen Münster and 1.24 for Fortuna Köln, 2.59 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Preussen Münster or draw (1X) 68%, Fortuna Köln or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.