01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rot-Weiss Essen to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
3. Liga11°9,8 mm43 km/h
Läs på svenska
Rot-Weiss EssenPossession control1–0
Jahn RegensburgLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen (58%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.76 (+4 %)
Rot-Weiss Essen vs Jahn Regensburg · 3. Liga
1 · Rot-Weiss Essen 58%X 22%20% Jahn Regensburg · 2
58%
22%
20%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Jahn Regensburg (3. Liga, Friday, 23 October 2026): Rot-Weiss Essen win 58%, draw 22%, Jahn Regensburg win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Rot-Weiss Essen 2.08, Jahn Regensburg 1.18. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Rot-Weiss Essen or draw 80%, Jahn Regensburg or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Rot-Weiss Essen – Jahn Regensburg
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rot-Weiss Essen’s possession-based control style is set to dictate the tempo against Jahn Regensburg’s low defensive line and direct counter-attacks. In this matchup, the hosts’ refined approach is likely to overwhelm the visitors, reflected by the model giving Essen a 58% probability of victory. A glance at the home side's expected goals tally, at 2.08, suggests they will have little trouble finding the back of the net, especially when compared to Regensburg's 1.18.
The modest sample size of two head-to-head encounters since 2024 show Essen with a perfect record against the visitors, which adds a psychological edge but is not as weighty as current form and underlying metrics. Essen's 58% home win rate across their all-time home matches (43 played) underpins their status as favorites, a pattern further supported by their superior xPoints (16.0 to Regensburg's 14.0) and a more effective xG (1.8 compared to Regensburg’s 1.5).
The model's projections suggest a likely scoreline of 2-1 or 2-0, with a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals. Although the rain could suppress scoring, the expected goals reflect this factor, indicating it's unlikely to derail Essen's attacking momentum completely. Jahn Regensburg's defensive vulnerability, conceding 1.5 xGA per match, elevates the chances of the hosts exploiting any lapses at the back.
Bettors will find value in backing the home side, with multiple bookmakers (Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet) offering odds of 1.75. The model rates this at 58%, providing a 2% edge. Given the statistical backing and expected gameplay dynamics, Essen on the moneyline stands as the sensible, well-grounded bet to pay the bills.
Rot-Weiss EssenForm WDDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #1xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Lucas BrummeLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.22
- Jose Enrique Rios AlonsoCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
- Marek JanssenFxG 0.42 · xT 0.15
Jahn RegensburgForm LDWDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #3xP/match #11Points #18
Key players
- Oscar SchönfelderLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
- Lucas HermesFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
- Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.18
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen 58% · Draw 22% · Jahn Regensburg 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Rot-Weiss EssenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,89fair 4,71-17 %
MissMatchresultat - Jahn RegensburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,84fair 14,73-40 %
MissMatch prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen – Jahn Regensburg
Predicted score matrix
Jahn Regensburg →
Rot-Weiss Essen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–14.2%
0–22.7%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–07.7%
1–19.7%
1–25.6%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.3%
2–19.8%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–05.7%
3–16.8%
3–24.0%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–15.7%
4+–23.4%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,08–1,18
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.65
Over 2,563%
@1.43
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rot-Weiss Essen to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Semir Telalović to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Semir Telalović to score38%
- Sascha Hingerl to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.559% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen58% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen58% probability@1.72LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen | X | 2 · Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 1.72 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 0% 1.72 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 1.72 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.36 | 4.09 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
59 %54 %
1.63 → 1.71
X0 %
24 %19 %
4.34 → 4.36
2-5 %
24 %19 %
4.30 → 4.09
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRot-Weiss Essen 2Draw 0Jahn Regensburg 0
Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- Rot-Weiss Essen win 58% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rot-Weiss Essen
Jahn Regensburg
Rot-Weiss Essen (18–13)
Jahn Regensburg (20–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rot-Weiss Essen
Jahn Regensburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rot-Weiss Essen
Jahn Regensburg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rot-Weiss Essen | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 10 |
| xPoints | 16 | 14 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Rot-Weiss Essen | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 354 | 363 |
| Passes against per match | 307 | 419 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.5 | 23.8 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Rot-Weiss Essen | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| Other | Rot-Weiss Essen | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen) | Hannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 20 |
| Save % | 64% | 51% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rot-Weiss Essen vs Jahn Regensburg according to our model?
The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rot-Weiss Essen 58%, draw 22%, Jahn Regensburg 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rot-Weiss Essen vs Jahn Regensburg?
The model expects 2.08 goals (xG) for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.18 for Jahn Regensburg, 3.26 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (1X) 80%, Jahn Regensburg or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 78%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.