01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viktoria Köln to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
3. Liga10°10,4 mm27 km/h
Läs på svenska
Viktoria KölnPossession control3–1
VerlPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Köln (53%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.93 (+8 %)
Viktoria Köln vs Verl · 3. Liga
1 · Viktoria Köln 53%X 23%24% Verl · 2
53%
23%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viktoria Köln vs Verl (3. Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Viktoria Köln win 53%, draw 23%, Verl win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Viktoria Köln 1.92, Verl 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Viktoria Köln or draw 76%, Verl or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Viktoria Köln – Verl
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Viktoria Köln's unbeaten run of six league matches stands as a testament to their recent form and consistency. As they prepare to host Verl, the stats and probabilities give the hosts a clear edge, with a 53% chance of victory and a substantial points lead in the standings. The expected goals metric reinforces this dominance, with Viktoria Köln predicted to net 1.92 goals, significantly ahead of Verl's 1.47. The visitors, however, bring scoring confidence of their own, having found the net in 11 straight league outings.
Despite this, the small head-to-head sample of just four matches since 2024 gives Verl a slight historical edge. Yet, Viktoria Köln's playing style and overall xG superiority suggest they might turn the tide. Both sides favor possession control, but it's the hosts who are truly capitalizing on their opportunities, as highlighted by their superior xPoints of 15.4 to Verl's 9.0.
With rain expected, goal-scoring conditions may be less than ideal, factoring into the likelihood of a tighter affair. The model heavily favors the under 3.5 goals market, presenting a 6% value edge at odds of 1.88 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. Between cautious defenses and calculated attacks, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome.
Viktoria KölnForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #15xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Tobias EisenhuthCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Niklas CastelleLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.06
- Niklas SwiderCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
VerlForm DWDDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #13xP/match #19Points #14
Key players
- Niko KijewskiLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Nick SeidelCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Noah KonigCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Viktoria Köln 53% · Draw 23% · Verl 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SC VerlBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,12fair 8,98-10 %
MissMatchresultat - Viktoria Köln 1904Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,38fair 5,19-35 %
HitMatch prediction: Viktoria Köln – Verl
Predicted score matrix
Verl →
Viktoria Köln →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–14.7%
0–23.6%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–06.2%
1–19.8%
1–27.0%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.2%
2–19.1%
2–26.7%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–04.0%
3–15.9%
3–24.3%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–14.4%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.6%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.2-06%
Expected goals
1,92–1,47
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
419%
5+25%
Under 2,534%
@3.00EV+3%
Over 2,566%
@1.33
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viktoria Köln to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- David Otto to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- David Otto to score28%
- Joshua Chima Eze to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.556% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- X · Draw23% probability@4.54PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- Under 3.556% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Köln | X | 2 · Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | EV+ 6% 4.54 | 4.20 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
60 %55 %
1.68 → 1.67
X+5 %
23 %18 %
4.34 → 4.54
2+9 %
25 %20 %
3.84 → 4.20
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesViktoria Köln 1Draw 1Verl 2
Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- Viktoria Koln are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- Verl have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viktoria Köln
Verl
Viktoria Köln (27–14)
Verl (15–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viktoria Köln
Verl
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viktoria Köln
Verl
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Köln | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 12 |
| xPoints | 15.4 | 9 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Köln | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 486 | 464 |
| Passes against per match | 295 | 266 |
| Switches of play per match | 17 | 30.9 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Köln | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Other | Viktoria Köln | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Arne Schulz (Viktoria Köln) | Timo Schlieck (Verl) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 35 |
| Save % | 63% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Rot-Weiss Essen – Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart II – Alemannia Aachen24 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Duisburg24 October 2026
- Meppen – Wurzburger Kickers24 October 2026
- Hansa Rostock – Fortuna Düsseldorf24 October 2026
- Wehen Wiesbaden – Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 October 2026
- Havelse – Saarbrücken25 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Hoffenheim II25 October 2026
- Preussen Münster – Fortuna Köln25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Köln vs Verl according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Köln a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Köln 53%, draw 23%, Verl 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Viktoria Köln vs Verl?
The model expects 1.92 goals (xG) for Viktoria Köln and 1.47 for Verl, 3.39 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Viktoria Köln or draw (1X) 76%, Verl or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.