Havelse vs Saarbrücken Prediction: Away win 67% (25 Oct 2026)

3. Liga25 October 2026

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HavelseCounter-attacks & crosses

SaarbrückenPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Saarbrücken (67%)

1 · Havelse 17%X 16%67% Saarbrücken · 2

17%

16%

67%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Havelse vs Saarbrücken (3. Liga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Havelse win 17%, draw 16%, Saarbrücken win 67%. Expected goals (xG): Havelse 1.10, Saarbrücken 2.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Havelse or draw 33%, Saarbrücken or draw 83%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Havelse – Saarbrücken

Sofia Andersson · 23 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Saarbrücken's dominance is the clear narrative here. With a 67% model probability favoring the visitors, they're poised to control this match. The hosts will likely rely on their counter-attacking strategy, hoping to exploit any gaps left by Saarbrücken's possession-heavy approach. However, the numbers suggest this could be an uphill battle for Havelse, who are struggling with an xGA of 2.2 compared to Saarbrücken's more robust 1.8.

Despite a promising 58% chance for both teams finding the net, Saarbrücken's superior expected goals (2.04 to Havelse's 1.10) and their better xPoints tally highlight a potentially decisive edge. The visitors should leverage their offensive quality to break down Havelse's defenses. While the model's most likely scorelines are tight at 1-1 and 1-2, Saarbrücken's potential to pull away is evident, with a 0-2 result also looming.

The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 61%, suggesting a match with decent scoring opportunities. Yet, the betting value emerges elsewhere. Despite the high goal prediction, the odds for under 2.5 at 2.75 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offer an 8% edge. This undercuts the expectation of a goal-heavy fixture, highlighting a tactical play where one side may not fully capitalize on their chances.

Ultimately, a 1-2 victory for the visitors feels most aligned with the data. But it's the under 2.5 goals bet at compelling odds that steals the spotlight for value hunters, challenging the conventional narrative of a high-scoring encounter.

Havelse

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #18xP/match #18Points #20

Key players

Robin VelascoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
Kwasi Okyere WriedtFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
Alexander GuiddirFxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Saarbrücken

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #16xT #9xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Patrick SontheimerCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Kai BrunkerFxG 0.52 · xT 0.04
Florian PickRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Havelse – Saarbrücken

Predicted score matrix

Saarbrücken →

Havelse →

0–04.6%

0–18.6%

0–29.0%

0–36.2%

0–4+5.0%

1–04.5%

1–110.0%

1–29.9%

1–36.7%

1–4+5.5%

2–02.6%

2–15.3%

2–25.4%

2–33.7%

2–4+3.0%

3–01.0%

3–11.9%

3–22.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-29%
4.0-19%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,10–2,04

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.72EV+7%

Over 2,561%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Saarbrücken to win67%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Saarbrücken to win67%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Christian Kühlwetter to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Christian Kühlwetter to score27%
Patrick Sontheimer to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Saarbrücken67% probability@1.63PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
2 · Saarbrücken67% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · Saarbrücken67% probability@1.62LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Havelse	X	2 · Saarbrücken
Betsafe	4.20	4.15	EV+ 9% 1.62
LeoVegas	4.20	4.10	EV+ 9% 1.62
Nordicbet	4.20	4.15	EV+ 9% 1.62
Pinnacle	4.52	4.47	EV+ 10% 1.63

Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

23 %18 %

4.41 → 4.52

X+2 %

23 %18 %

4.37 → 4.47

2+1 %

61 %56 %

1.61 → 1.63

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Havelse

Saarbrücken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Havelse (13–23)

Saarbrücken (24–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Havelse

Saarbrücken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Havelse

Saarbrücken

The teams in numbers

Performance	Havelse	Saarbrücken
Points	6	17
xPoints	9.9	14.8
xG per match	1	1.9
xGA per match	2.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.29

Playing style	Havelse	Saarbrücken
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.32
Field tilt	0.35	0.53
xT per match	0.91	1.1
xTA per match	1.8	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	18	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	14
Entries into the box against	18	14
Pass completion %	0.73	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.69
Passes per match	299	350
Passes against per match	387	336
Switches of play per match	19.4	32.4
Long balls per match	31	43

Set pieces	Havelse	Saarbrücken
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.19
Corners per match	3.5	6.5
Corners against per match	5.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.67

Other	Havelse	Saarbrücken
Throw-in control	0.71	0.76

The goalkeepers	Omer Hanin (Havelse)	Matteo Bignetti (Saarbrücken)
Saves	30	32
Save %	67%	70%
xG prevented	44%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Havelse

Fixtures, form & tips

Saarbrücken

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Havelse vs Saarbrücken according to our model?

The model gives Saarbrücken a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Havelse 17%, draw 16%, Saarbrücken 67%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Havelse vs Saarbrücken?

The model expects 1.10 goals (xG) for Havelse and 2.04 for Saarbrücken, 3.14 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Havelse or draw (1X) 33%, Saarbrücken or draw (X2) 83% and no draw (12) 84%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.