Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf: Prediction & Odds (14 Oct 2026)

3. Liga14 October 202614°16 km/h

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Preussen MünsterCounter-attacks & crosses

1–2

Fortuna DüsseldorfPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+23 %)

1 · Preussen Münster 30%X 29%41% Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2

30%

29%

41%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (3. Liga, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Preussen Münster win 30%, draw 29%, Fortuna Düsseldorf win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Preussen Münster 1.15, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Preussen Münster or draw 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw 70%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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Analysis: Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf

Oscar Nilsson · 11 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The text contains a factual error regarding xPoints: it states Münster's xPoints (8.1) are "poorer" compared to Düsseldorf's (6.9), but 8.1 is actually higher than 6.9, meaning Münster leads in both points and xPoints, not just points.

Corrected text:

Fortuna Düsseldorf enter as slight favorites against Preussen Münster, but the margins are razor-thin. The model leans towards Düsseldorf with a 41% probability of victory, while Münster sits close behind at 30%. This delicate balance reflects a broader pattern: Münster leads both in points (11 vs. 10) and xPoints (8.1 vs. 6.9), suggesting their underlying numbers actually support their current standing.

A 1-1 draw leads the scoreline probabilities at 13%, underscoring the likelihood of a tightly contested affair. Münster's preference for counter-attacks and crosses faces off against Düsseldorf’s possession-based approach. The hosts tend to ship more goals, with an xGA of 1.6 per match compared to the visitors' 1.4, suggesting potential vulnerability against any sustained pressure from Düsseldorf.

Yet, Düsseldorf’s superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.31 vs. 0.13) indicates their knack for capitalizing on turnovers. This could be crucial if they can disrupt Münster’s play and transition quickly into attack. Still, the expected goals are relatively close: Münster 1.15 to Düsseldorf's 1.28, suggesting neither side will dominate offensively. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 44%, tipping this encounter towards a lower-scoring affair, while both teams to score is evenly pegged at 50%.

For punters seeking an edge, Fortuna Düsseldorf to win at odds of 2.40 with Bet365 offers potential value, aligning with the model’s lean. However, given the statistical tightrope this match walks, a 1-1 draw at 13% is the most probable outcome. The betting angle hinges on Düsseldorf’s ability to convert their possession into concrete chances, but an upset or a stalemate remains well within the realm of possibility.

Preussen Münster

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #22xP/match #16Points #7

Key players

Marvin SchulzFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
Leon TasovRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Felix HiglFxG 0.15 · xT 0.06

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Form WDWWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #7xP/match #21Points #9

Key players

Tim OberdorfCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Fabian SchleusenerFxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
Elias EgouliCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Preussen Münster 30% · Draw 29% · Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Fortuna DüsseldorfBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,48fair 12,14-47 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Preussen MunsterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,80fair 14,94-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf

Predicted score matrix

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

Preussen Münster →

0–09.2%

0–110.9%

0–27.2%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.8%

1–113.3%

1–28.3%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–05.8%

2–17.5%

2–24.8%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.2%

3–12.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,15–1,28

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@2.18EV+17%

Over 2,544%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Anas Slimani to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Philipp Maier to score21%
Yassine Bouchama to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
Under 1.530% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Under 1.530% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Preussen Münster	X	2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf
Betsafe	2.75	3.40	2.30
LeoVegas	2.75	3.40	2.25
Nordicbet	2.75	3.40	2.30
Pinnacle	2.84	EV+ 6% 3.61	2.35

Odds updated 14 Oct, 12:15

Odds movement

1+2 %

36 %31 %

2.79 → 2.84

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.61 → 3.61

2+2 %

43 %38 %

2.30 → 2.35

Over 2,5+1 %

59 %54 %

1.67 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Düsseldorf

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Preussen Münster (12–13)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Düsseldorf

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Preussen Münster

Fortuna Düsseldorf

The teams in numbers

Performance	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Düsseldorf
Points	11	10
xPoints	8.1	6.9
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.32

Playing style	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Düsseldorf
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.33
Field tilt	0.39	0.54
xT per match	0.6	1.1
xTA per match	0.95	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.3
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.7	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.73
Passes per match	288	401
Passes against per match	380	278
Switches of play per match	15.8	23.4
Long balls per match	30	33

Set pieces	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Düsseldorf
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	3.4	5
Corners against per match	4.6	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.56

Other	Preussen Münster	Fortuna Düsseldorf
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Morten Jens Behrens (Preussen Münster)	Louis Sascha Lord (Fortuna Düsseldorf)
Saves	15	11
Save %	54%	79%
xG prevented	32%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Preussen Münster

Fixtures, form & tips

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf according to our model?

The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preussen Münster 30%, draw 29%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Preussen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

The model expects 1.15 goals (xG) for Preussen Münster and 1.28 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Preussen Münster or draw (1X) 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.