01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viktoria Köln to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
3. Liga16°15 km/h
Läs på svenska
Viktoria KölnPossession control2–2
Sonnenhof GrossaspachPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Köln (61%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.84 (+8 %)
Viktoria Köln vs Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 3. Liga
1 · Viktoria Köln 61%X 20%19% Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2
61%
20%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viktoria Köln vs Sonnenhof Grossaspach (3. Liga, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Viktoria Köln win 61%, draw 20%, Sonnenhof Grossaspach win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Viktoria Köln 2.17, Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.10. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Viktoria Köln or draw 81%, Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw 39%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
A night of contrasts looms as Viktoria Köln, buoyed by a three-game winning streak, welcomes Grossaspach. The market has set the hosts as 61% favorites, a testament to their recent form and home prowess, where they claim victory in 55% of their matches historically. With Viktoria sitting on 15 points to Grossaspach's 8, the gap in raw results is clear. Yet, delve beneath the surface, and similarities emerge in expected points: Grossaspach actually edges Viktoria by 0.1 in xPoints, signaling that the visitors have perhaps been slightly unlucky.
The expected goals paint a clearer picture of the contest: Viktoria enjoys a 2.17 to 1.10 xG advantage, suggesting a more potent attack and tighter defense. However, Grossaspach's high press style could disrupt Viktoria's possession game, possibly making this tighter than the model suggests. The most probable scorelines—2-1 and 1-1—underscore a match that may be closer than the odds imply, though the hosts maintain the upper hand.
Though weather isn't a factor, the 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, paired with a 59% chance for both teams to score, hints at an open, attacking game. Viktoria's defensive solidity, allowing only 1.2 xGA per match, faces a test from Grossaspach's pressing approach, which has carved out an average of 1.7 xG even against sterner defenses.
The betting value lies with the hosts. Viktoria's odds of 1.7 on Betsafe and Nordicbet present a 4% edge, aligning with the model's confidence. It’s a sharp angle for those who trust in form and home strength over the softer edges of expected numbers. With Viktoria Köln poised to extend their winning streak, a 2-1 victory seems the likeliest outcome.
Viktoria KölnForm WLWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #16xP/match #11Points #3
Key players
- David OttoFxG 0.67 · xT 0.00
- Tobias EisenhuthCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
- Tim KlossCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Sonnenhof GrossaspachForm LWDDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #15xT #2xP/match #10Points #14
Key players
- Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.46 · xT -0.01
- Niklas PollexFxG 0.16 · xT 0.32
- Fabian EiseleFxG 0.70 · xT 0.02
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Viktoria Köln 61% · Draw 20% · Sonnenhof Grossaspach 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Viktoria Köln 1904Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,38fair 4,48-25 %
MissMatchresultat - SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,27fair 17,68-36 %
MissMatch prediction: Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Predicted score matrix
Sonnenhof Grossaspach →
Viktoria Köln →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–13.9%
0–22.3%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–19.3%
1–25.0%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.8%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.5%
3–17.1%
3–23.9%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.8%
4+–16.4%
4+–23.5%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,17–1,10
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,536%
@2.82EV+3%
Over 2,564%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viktoria Köln to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- David Otto to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- David Otto to score28%
- Luca Damiano Molinari to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.559% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Viktoria Köln61% probability@1.70Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.536% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Köln | X | 2 · Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.50 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.50 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 4% 1.70 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | EV+ 1% 4.91 | 5.04 |
Odds updated 14 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Viktoria Köln win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.52 (−10%).
1-10 %
63 %53 %
1.68 → 1.52
X+15 %
26 %16 %
4.27 → 4.91
2+30 %
26 %16 %
3.88 → 5.04
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Viktoria Koln come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Viktoria Koln win 55% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viktoria Köln
Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Viktoria Köln (19–9)
Sonnenhof Grossaspach (6–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viktoria Köln
Sonnenhof Grossaspach
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viktoria Köln
Sonnenhof Grossaspach
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Köln | Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 8 |
| xPoints | 10 | 10.1 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Köln | Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 500 | 362 |
| Passes against per match | 283 | 318 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.2 | 19.5 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Köln | Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| Other | Viktoria Köln | Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Arne Schulz (Viktoria Köln) | Maximilian Reule (Sonnenhof Grossaspach) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 26 |
| Save % | 55% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
- Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- Havelse – Wurzburger Kickers13 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- Saarbrücken – Duisburg13 October 2026
- Hansa Rostock – Meppen13 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Köln vs Sonnenhof Grossaspach according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Köln a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Köln 61%, draw 20%, Sonnenhof Grossaspach 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Viktoria Köln vs Sonnenhof Grossaspach?
The model expects 2.17 goals (xG) for Viktoria Köln and 1.10 for Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 3.27 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Viktoria Köln or draw (1X) 81%, Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.