01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Waldhof Mannheim to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
3. Liga15°0,1 mm6 km/h
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Waldhof MannheimCounter-attacks & crosses0–3
IngolstadtLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Waldhof Mannheim (52%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.10 (+35 %)
Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt · 3. Liga
1 · Waldhof Mannheim 52%X 25%23% Ingolstadt · 2
52%
25%
23%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt (3. Liga, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Waldhof Mannheim win 52%, draw 25%, Ingolstadt win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Waldhof Mannheim 1.67, Ingolstadt 0.92. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Waldhof Mannheim or draw 77%, Ingolstadt or draw 48%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of contrasting styles awaits as Waldhof Mannheim prepares to host Ingolstadt in the 3. Liga. While the hosts lean on counter-attacks and crosses, Ingolstadt will likely sit deep and rely on direct plays, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Despite the visitors’ stubborn defensive approach, Mannheim's sharper form and attacking stats suggest they have the upper hand.
Waldhof Mannheim holds a slight edge with 10 points compared to Ingolstadt’s 8, driven by a more robust expected goals (xG) profile. The hosts average 1.4 xG per match, while Ingolstadt lags behind at 1.2. Moreover, Mannheim boasts a better defensive record, with an xGA of 1.1 against Ingolstadt’s more porous 1.7. The model leans towards a home victory with a 52% probability, underlining Mannheim's advantage in expected goals and points metrics.
It's notable, however, that in their limited head-to-head history since 2024, Mannheim has yet to secure a win, drawing two and losing two against Ingolstadt. But this small sample size should weigh less than the current form, particularly given Mannheim's clear statistical advantages. Most likely scorelines like 1-0 and 2-0 reflect the hosts' edge and Ingolstadt’s potential struggles to break through.
For those looking at the betting angles, the market seems to underestimate lower-scoring outcomes. The odds for under 1.5 goals at 5.3 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer substantial value, with the model indicating a 41% edge. Additionally, under 2.5 goals at 2.58 with Betsafe presents a 34% edge. Considering the tactical setups and low-scoring likelihood, these options merit attention in a fixture that could see Mannheim edging out Ingolstadt in a tight affair.
Waldhof MannheimForm LLWLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #4xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Lovis BierschenkLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.24
- Favour Jidechi OkekeRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
- Julian UlbrichtLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.00
IngolstadtForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #19xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Obed Chidindu UgonduFxG 0.74 · xT 0.01
- Simon LorenzCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
- Nishan Matthew VelupillayLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.02
Final score
0 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Waldhof Mannheim 52% · Draw 25% · Ingolstadt 23%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SV Waldhof MannheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,50fair 7,65-41 %
MissMatchresultat - FC Ingolstadt 04Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,17fair 24,85-71 %
MissMatch prediction: Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt
Predicted score matrix
Ingolstadt →
Waldhof Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–16.5%
0–23.2%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.2%
1–111.8%
1–25.3%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.6%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.8%
3–15.4%
3–22.5%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.6%
4+–13.3%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,67–0,92
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.52EV+31%
Over 2,548%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Waldhof Mannheim to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Lovis Bierschenk to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Lars Lokotsch to score19%
- Georgios Antzoulas to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.527% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
- Under 1.527% probability@5.10NordicbetEV+35%reference odds
- Under 1.527% probability@5.00LeoVegasEV+33%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Waldhof Mannheim | X | 2 · Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.95 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.95 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 1.93 | 4.02 | 3.45 |
Odds updated 14 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-4 %
50 %45 %
2.02 → 1.93
X+4 %
26 %21 %
3.87 → 4.02
2+10 %
31 %26 %
3.13 → 3.45
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesWaldhof Mannheim 0Draw 2Ingolstadt 2
Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Waldhof Mannheim
Ingolstadt
Waldhof Mannheim (11–10)
Ingolstadt (7–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Waldhof Mannheim
Ingolstadt
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Waldhof Mannheim
Ingolstadt
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Waldhof Mannheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 8 |
| xPoints | 10.5 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Waldhof Mannheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 345 | 256 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 410 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.1 | 17.8 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Waldhof Mannheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 7.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| Other | Waldhof Mannheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Thijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis (Waldhof Mannheim) | David Klein (Ingolstadt) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 28 |
| Save % | 74% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
- Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- Havelse – Wurzburger Kickers13 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- Saarbrücken – Duisburg13 October 2026
- Hansa Rostock – Meppen13 October 2026
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt according to our model?
The model gives Waldhof Mannheim a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waldhof Mannheim 52%, draw 25%, Ingolstadt 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Waldhof Mannheim and 0.92 for Ingolstadt, 2.59 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Waldhof Mannheim or draw (1X) 77%, Ingolstadt or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.