3. Liga13°7 km/h

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    Wehen WiesbadenWehen WiesbadenPossession & high press
    3–0
    Alemannia AachenAlemannia AachenPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Alemannia Aachen (52%)

    Wehen Wiesbaden vs Alemannia Aachen · 3. Liga

    1 · Wehen Wiesbaden 24%X 24%52% Alemannia Aachen · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wehen Wiesbaden vs Alemannia Aachen (3. Liga, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Wehen Wiesbaden win 24%, draw 24%, Alemannia Aachen win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Wehen Wiesbaden 1.22, Alemannia Aachen 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Wehen Wiesbaden or draw 48%, Alemannia Aachen or draw 76%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Alemannia Aachen's commanding 52% likelihood to take all three points stands out as the defining narrative going into their clash with Wehen Wiesbaden. The visitors' tactical approach, anchored in possession control, has been both effective and efficient this season, reflected in their superior points tally of 11 compared to the hosts' 5. Wehen, despite their high-pressing game, has struggled to convert possession into tangible results, which might leave them vulnerable against an Aachen side comfortable in dictating play.

    The head-to-head record, albeit small with only four matches, slightly favors Aachen with two wins to Wiesbaden's one. However, the more telling story lies in the expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics. Aachen's average xG per match sits at 1.6, suggesting they are adept at creating quality chances, whereas Wehen's higher xGA of 1.6 exposes their defensive frailties. This discrepancy in both offensive and defensive efficiencies underpins the model's lean towards Aachen.

    While the over 2.5 goals probability is at 54%, indicating moderate confidence in a high-scoring encounter, the under 2.5 presents a slight edge at 2.22 odds with Betsafe, albeit marginal at 46% probability. Given both teams' tendency to control possession, the actual flow of the match may lean towards fewer scoring opportunities than the raw numbers suggest.

    For those eyeing value, the away win at odds of 2.55 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet is particularly tempting. The model's 52% rating on an Aachen victory offers a significant 32% edge, making it a standout option. The blend of possession prowess from Aachen and Wehen's defensive vulnerabilities points towards a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of the visitors. With these dynamics at play, an Aachen win seems the most pragmatic bet.

    Wehen WiesbadenWehen Wiesbaden
    Form DDLWL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #6xP/match #17Points #20
    Key players
    • Jakob LewaldCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
    • Ben NinkRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
    • Justin JanitzekCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
    Alemannia AachenAlemannia Aachen
    Form LWDLW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #10xP/match #4Points #6
    Key players
    • Jonas OehmichenCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.28
    • Louis KosterFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
    • Lukas ScepanikRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Wehen Wiesbaden 24% · Draw 24% · Alemannia Aachen 52%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Alemannia AachenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,19fair 7,28-1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Wehen WiesbadenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,12fair 13,02-53 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen

    Predicted score matrix

    Alemannia Aachen →
    Wehen Wiesbaden →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–19.1%
    0–27.7%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+2.5%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–111.9%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.1%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.0%
    2–25.7%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.8%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–12.8%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,63
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.50EV+15%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.66

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Alemannia Aachen to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Alemannia Aachen to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Mika Schröers to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Mika Schröers to score22%
    • Danilo Wiebe to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Alemannia Aachen52% probability@2.83PinnacleEV+47%reference odds
    • 2 · Alemannia Aachen52% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
    • 2 · Alemannia Aachen52% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+41%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Wehen WiesbadenX2 · Alemannia Aachen
    Betsafe2.323.40
    EV+ 41%
    2.72
    LeoVegas2.303.40
    EV+ 40%
    2.70
    Nordicbet2.323.40
    EV+ 41%
    2.72
    Paddy Power2.603.60
    EV+ 14%
    2.20
    Pinnacle2.313.73
    EV+ 47%
    2.83

    Odds updated 14 Oct, 10:12

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    42 %37 %

    2.41 → 2.31

    X+2 %
    28 %23 %

    3.67 → 3.73

    2+11 %
    37 %32 %

    2.54 → 2.83

    Over 2,5+2 %
    60 %55 %

    1.62 → 1.66

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Wehen Wiesbaden 1Draw 1Alemannia Aachen 2
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Alemannia Aachen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wehen Wiesbaden (5–13)
    Alemannia Aachen (11–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Justin Janitzek: 260 passningar, xT 0.37JanitzekJordy Gillekens: 204 passningar, xT 0.3GillekensBen Nink: 157 passningar, xT 0.73NinkFabian Greilinger: 148 passningar, xT 1.24GreilingerMax Julian Brandt: 136 passningar, xT 0.13BrandtFlorian Stritzel: 117 passningar, xT 0.3StritzelTarik Gozusirin: 116 passningar, xT 0.35GozusirinGino Fechner: 94 passningar, xT 0.66FechnerRoberto Massimo: 64 passningar, xT 0.17MassimoRaul Carlos Vasko Caldaroska Paula: 53 passningar, xT 0.25PaulaMoritz Flotho: 46 passningar, xT -0.13Flotho
    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 286 passningar, xT 0.49BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 225 passningar, xT 0.73KialaMehdi Loune: 181 passningar, xT 0.62LouneMatti Wagner: 167 passningar, xT 0.87WagnerDanilo Wiebe: 145 passningar, xT 0.19WiebeJonas Oehmichen: 133 passningar, xT 0.44OehmichenGideon Jung: 132 passningar, xT 0.19JungStefan Bajić: 121 passningar, xT 0.17BajićLukas Scepanik: 116 passningar, xT 0.8ScepanikMika Schroers: 67 passningar, xT 0.35SchroersKacper Kościerski: 58 passningar, xT 0.17Kościerski
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Justin Janitzek: 260 passningar, xT 0.37JanitzekJordy Gillekens: 204 passningar, xT 0.3GillekensBen Nink: 157 passningar, xT 0.73NinkFabian Greilinger: 148 passningar, xT 1.24GreilingerMax Julian Brandt: 136 passningar, xT 0.13BrandtFlorian Stritzel: 117 passningar, xT 0.3StritzelTarik Gozusirin: 116 passningar, xT 0.35GozusirinGino Fechner: 94 passningar, xT 0.66FechnerRoberto Massimo: 64 passningar, xT 0.17MassimoRaul Carlos Vasko Caldaroska Paula: 53 passningar, xT 0.25PaulaMoritz Flotho: 46 passningar, xT -0.13Flotho
    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 286 passningar, xT 0.49BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 225 passningar, xT 0.73KialaMehdi Loune: 181 passningar, xT 0.62LouneMatti Wagner: 167 passningar, xT 0.87WagnerDanilo Wiebe: 145 passningar, xT 0.19WiebeJonas Oehmichen: 133 passningar, xT 0.44OehmichenGideon Jung: 132 passningar, xT 0.19JungStefan Bajić: 121 passningar, xT 0.17BajićLukas Scepanik: 116 passningar, xT 0.8ScepanikMika Schroers: 67 passningar, xT 0.35SchroersKacper Kościerski: 58 passningar, xT 0.17Kościerski

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWehen WiesbadenAlemannia Aachen
    Points511
    xPoints811.7
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match1.61.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.19
    Playing styleWehen WiesbadenAlemannia Aachen
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.540.61
    xT per match1.21.1
    xTA per match0.891
    Won balls, offensive half2225
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.31
    Entries into the box per match1312
    Entries into the box against1213
    Pass completion %0.770.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.68
    Passes per match349338
    Passes against per match354294
    Switches of play per match18.616.1
    Long balls per match3625
    Set piecesWehen WiesbadenAlemannia Aachen
    xG from free kicks0.090.14
    Corners per match4.24.7
    Corners against per match6.32.8
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.55
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.45
    OtherWehen WiesbadenAlemannia Aachen
    Throw-in control0.750.72
    The goalkeepersFlorian Stritzel (Wehen Wiesbaden)Stefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen)
    Saves1916
    Save %59%67%
    xG prevented31%64%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Wehen Wiesbaden
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Alemannia Aachen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wehen Wiesbaden vs Alemannia Aachen according to our model?

    The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wehen Wiesbaden 24%, draw 24%, Alemannia Aachen 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Wehen Wiesbaden vs Alemannia Aachen?

    The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Wehen Wiesbaden and 1.63 for Alemannia Aachen, 2.85 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Wehen Wiesbaden or draw (1X) 48%, Alemannia Aachen or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 76%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.