01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Verl to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
3. Liga12°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
VerlPossession control2–2
Jahn RegensburgLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Verl (52%)
Verl vs Jahn Regensburg · 3. Liga
1 · Verl 52%X 24%24% Jahn Regensburg · 2
52%
24%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Verl vs Jahn Regensburg (3. Liga, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Verl win 52%, draw 24%, Jahn Regensburg win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Verl 2.04, Jahn Regensburg 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Verl or draw 76%, Jahn Regensburg or draw 48%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Verl – Jahn Regensburg
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Two matches into their head-to-head history, and Jahn Regensburg hold a perfect record against Verl. However, with a sample this small, the visitors' past wins offer little predictive power against the backdrop of current form and statistical expectations. The hosts come into this clash with a solid scoring run, having netted in their last eight league outings. This indicates they possess the offensive capability to challenge Jahn's defense.
The model's numbers favor Verl with a 52% chance of winning, which aligns with their recent form advantage, having amassed 10 points to Jahn's 5. Despite this, the expected goals tell a nuanced story. Jahn Regensburg have a slight edge in xG per match at 1.4 compared to Verl's 1.2, suggesting that the visitors could pose a threat with their direct playing style. Yet, Verl's ability to control possession might neutralize some of these offensive tendencies.
Statistically, the game leans towards goals. With a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% probability of both teams finding the net, an open match feels likely. While Verl's xGA is marginally better than Regensburg's, neither side boasts a particularly strong defensive record, setting the stage for potential scoring opportunities on both ends.
The standout betting angle here is the value on Verl's win at odds 2.05 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model's 52% win probability for the hosts offers a 7% edge, making it a tempting proposition for those seeking a value play. While risk always looms in betting, the numbers suggest that backing Verl in this context could be worthwhile.
VerlForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #14xP/match #20Points #11
Key players
- André LeipoldLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
- Tim HeikeFxG 0.42 · xT 0.01
- Fabian WessigCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Jahn RegensburgForm LLDLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #20xT #5xP/match #15Points #19
Key players
- Lucas HermesFxG 0.40 · xT 0.09
- Erik MajetschakFxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
- Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.21
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Verl 52% · Draw 24% · Jahn Regensburg 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SC VerlBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,46fair 4,71-5 %
MissMatchresultat - Jahn RegensburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,46fair 10,16-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Verl – Jahn Regensburg
Predicted score matrix
Jahn Regensburg →
Verl →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.5%
0–14.2%
0–23.1%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–06.3%
1–19.5%
1–26.4%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.7%
2–19.4%
2–26.5%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–04.6%
3–16.3%
3–24.4%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–15.2%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.7%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-19%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
2,04–1,39
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@3.00EV+0%
Over 2,567%
@1.37
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Verl to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Tim Heike to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Tim Heike to score37%
- Adrian Markus Fein to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Verl52% probability@2.24PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Verl52% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Verl52% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Verl | X | 2 · Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 13% 2.18 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 13% 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 13% 2.18 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 7% 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 17% 2.24 | 4.05 | 2.76 |
Odds updated 14 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Jahn Regensburg win since 12 October — the odds have shortened from 3.01 to 2.76 (−8%).
1+9 %
46 %41 %
2.05 → 2.24
X+2 %
26 %21 %
3.98 → 4.05
2-8 %
35 %30 %
3.01 → 2.76
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVerl 0Draw 0Jahn Regensburg 2
Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- Verl have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Verl
Jahn Regensburg
Verl (10–13)
Jahn Regensburg (13–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Verl
Jahn Regensburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Verl
Jahn Regensburg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Verl | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 5 |
| xPoints | 6.9 | 8.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Verl | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 418 | 321 |
| Passes against per match | 262 | 397 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 22.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Verl | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| Other | Verl | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Timo Schlieck (Verl) | Hannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 15 |
| Save % | 68% | 47% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 29% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
- Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- Havelse – Wurzburger Kickers13 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- Saarbrücken – Duisburg13 October 2026
- Hansa Rostock – Meppen13 October 2026
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Verl vs Jahn Regensburg according to our model?
The model gives Verl a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Verl 52%, draw 24%, Jahn Regensburg 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Verl vs Jahn Regensburg?
The model expects 2.04 goals (xG) for Verl and 1.39 for Jahn Regensburg, 3.43 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Verl or draw (1X) 76%, Jahn Regensburg or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.