Serie BStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno13°9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    AscoliAscoliPossession & high press
    vs
    SampdoriaSampdoriaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Ascoli (47%)

    Ascoli vs Sampdoria · Serie B

    1 · Ascoli 47%X 25%27% Sampdoria · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ascoli vs Sampdoria (Serie B, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Ascoli win 47%, draw 25%, Sampdoria win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Ascoli 1.49, Sampdoria 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Ascoli or draw 73%, Sampdoria or draw 53%. Prediction updated Monday, 19 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Ascoli – Sampdoria

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Ascoli's 47% win probability against Sampdoria sets the tone for this Serie B clash. The hosts are slightly favored, thanks to their superior xPoints and recent performance, with 12 points compared to the visitors' 4. Both teams favor high possession and pressing, which suggests a battle for midfield dominance. However, the most likely outcome, according to model predictions, is a 1-1 draw (13%), closely followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts (11%).

    Despite the similar tactical approaches, Ascoli has an edge in expected goals (1.49 to Sampdoria's 1.11), hinting at slightly more attacking potency. Yet, Sampdoria's defensive numbers (xGA 1.1 per match) could keep the game tight, leaning towards a low-scoring affair. The probability for over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, indicating no strong lean towards either over or under.

    For bettors, assessing the value is crucial. The model leans towards a marginal home win for Ascoli, supported by stronger metrics, while the 1-1 draw remains a prominent possibility, fueled by both teams' similar styles and tight defensive setups.

    AscoliAscoli
    Form WLWDD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #12xP/match #8Points #6
    Key players
    • Abdoul Razack GuiébréLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    • Marcos CuradoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
    • Nicholas RizzoCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
    SampdoriaSampdoria
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #4xP/match #10Points #20
    Key players
    • Mattia VitiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
    • Lorenzo InsigneLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
    • Liam HendersonCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: Ascoli – Sampdoria

    Predicted score matrix

    Sampdoria →
    Ascoli →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.8%
    0–17.9%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–112.6%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.3%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–14.6%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,49–1,11
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    –
    Over 2,548%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ascoli to win47%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ascoli to win47%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Don Bolsius to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Don Bolsius to score24%
    • Salvatore Esposito to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ascoli47% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Ascoli47% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Ascoli47% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AscoliX2 · Sampdoria
    Betsafe
    EV+ 7%
    2.25    		3.252.95
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 7%
    2.25    		3.302.95
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    2.25    		3.252.95

    Odds updated 20 Oct, 21:38

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ascoli
    Sampdoria
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ascoli (8–5)
    Sampdoria (7–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ascoli
    Marcos Curado: 311 passningar, xT 0.39CuradoSamuele Damiani: 271 passningar, xT 0.18DamianiNicholas Rizzo: 267 passningar, xT 0.42RizzoGiovanni Corradini: 181 passningar, xT 0.72CorradiniTommaso Milanese: 177 passningar, xT 0.08MilaneseAbdoul Razack Guiébré: 168 passningar, xT 0.25GuiébréSamuele Vitale: 158 passningar, xT 0.1VitaleSimone D'Uffizi: 112 passningar, xT 0.35D'UffiziAndrea Oliveri: 107 passningar, xT 0.17OliveriAndrea Silipo: 74 passningar, xT 0.26SilipoGennaro Acampora: 53 passningar, xT 0.09Acampora
    Sampdoria
    Antoine Makoumbou: 224 passningar, xT 0.31MakoumbouFilippo Delli Carri: 217 passningar, xT 0.64CarriManuel Cicconi: 173 passningar, xT 0.79CicconiStefan Gartenmann: 169 passningar, xT 0.18GartenmannAlessandro Di Pardo: 165 passningar, xT 0.92PardoPeter Vindahl Jensen: 149 passningar, xT 0.35JensenLorenzo Insigne: 144 passningar, xT 0.29InsigneLiam Henderson: 126 passningar, xT 0.67HendersonYari Verschaeren: 122 passningar, xT 0.02VerschaerenLuca Ravanelli: 60 passningar, xT 0.04RavanelliTjas Begic: 54 passningar, xT 0.48Begic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ascoli
    Marcos Curado: 311 passningar, xT 0.39CuradoSamuele Damiani: 271 passningar, xT 0.18DamianiNicholas Rizzo: 267 passningar, xT 0.42RizzoGiovanni Corradini: 181 passningar, xT 0.72CorradiniTommaso Milanese: 177 passningar, xT 0.08MilaneseAbdoul Razack Guiébré: 168 passningar, xT 0.25GuiébréSamuele Vitale: 158 passningar, xT 0.1VitaleSimone D'Uffizi: 112 passningar, xT 0.35D'UffiziAndrea Oliveri: 107 passningar, xT 0.17OliveriAndrea Silipo: 74 passningar, xT 0.26SilipoGennaro Acampora: 53 passningar, xT 0.09Acampora
    Sampdoria
    Antoine Makoumbou: 224 passningar, xT 0.31MakoumbouFilippo Delli Carri: 217 passningar, xT 0.64CarriManuel Cicconi: 173 passningar, xT 0.79CicconiStefan Gartenmann: 169 passningar, xT 0.18GartenmannAlessandro Di Pardo: 165 passningar, xT 0.92PardoPeter Vindahl Jensen: 149 passningar, xT 0.35JensenLorenzo Insigne: 144 passningar, xT 0.29InsigneLiam Henderson: 126 passningar, xT 0.67HendersonYari Verschaeren: 122 passningar, xT 0.02VerschaerenLuca Ravanelli: 60 passningar, xT 0.04RavanelliTjas Begic: 54 passningar, xT 0.48Begic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAscoliSampdoria
    Points124
    xPoints109.9
    xG per match1.61.4
    xGA per match1.31.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.21
    Playing styleAscoliSampdoria
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.680.64
    xT per match0.931.1
    xTA per match0.730.78
    Won balls, offensive half2830
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.340.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.24
    Entries into the box per match1316
    Entries into the box against1110
    Pass completion %0.810.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.7
    Passes per match422372
    Passes against per match238372
    Switches of play per match26.323.3
    Long balls per match3026
    Set piecesAscoliSampdoria
    xG from free kicks0.040.04
    Corners per match6.36.2
    Corners against per match4.73.3
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.61
    OtherAscoliSampdoria
    Throw-in control0.70.78
    The goalkeepersSamuele Vitale (Ascoli)Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria)
    Saves1915
    Save %79%52%
    xG prevented65%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ascoli
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sampdoria
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ascoli vs Sampdoria according to our model?

    The model gives Ascoli a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ascoli 47%, draw 25%, Sampdoria 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Ascoli vs Sampdoria?

    The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Ascoli and 1.11 for Sampdoria, 2.60 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Ascoli or draw (1X) 73%, Sampdoria or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.