Cesena vs Empoli Prediction: Home win 44% (27 Oct 2026)

Serie B27 October 2026Orogel Stadium Dino Manuzzi, Cesena12°7 km/h

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CesenaLow block & direct

EmpoliLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Cesena (44%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+0 %)

1 · Cesena 44%X 29%27% Empoli · 2

44%

29%

27%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cesena vs Empoli (Serie B, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Cesena win 44%, draw 29%, Empoli win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Cesena 1.57, Empoli 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Cesena or draw 73%, Empoli or draw 56%. Prediction updated Monday, 19 October 2026.

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Analysis: Cesena – Empoli

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Cesena face Empoli with an interesting edge: their defensive setup pairs well against a similarly direct yet less robust Empoli side. This encounter is likely to be defined by Cesena's ability to impose their slightly superior defensive discipline. The hosts have the advantage in expected goals against (1.1 compared to Empoli's 1.7), which suggests a tighter control at the back.

With only two head-to-head encounters since 2023, the historical rivalry offers little insight, especially as neither team could gain dominance, sharing a draw and a win for Empoli. The more telling numbers are Cesena's slight leads in both points (8 to Empoli's 7) and xPoints (10.2 versus 8.5). These suggest a marginal but meaningful edge for the home side.

In terms of goal production, Cesena's expected goals per match (1.0) slightly outweigh Empoli's (0.89), highlighting a modest offensive advantage. The likelihood of both teams scoring is over 50% but only barely tilts the scale towards an over 2.5 goals scenario at 50%. The model suggests a cautious 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 victory for Cesena as very plausible outcomes.

The sharpest angle for bettors might lie in the outright market. With the model favoring Cesena at 44% versus Empoli's 27%, the odds could reveal value in a Cesena win. If bookmakers are overpricing Empoli based on their head-to-head edge, punters could find Cesena's win odds attractive, particularly around the 44% probability mark. As always, the numbers, not the narratives, should guide decisions.

Cesena

Form DDDLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #18xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Andrea CiofiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Dimitri BisoliRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Empoli

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #20xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Edoardo SaporitiFxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.24 · xT -0.01
Gerard YepesCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Cesena – Empoli

Predicted score matrix

Empoli →

Cesena →

0–07.1%

0–17.3%

0–24.3%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.3%

1–112.3%

1–26.7%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.4%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.4%

3–14.9%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,57–1,12

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

–

Over 2,550%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)73%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Cristian Shpendi to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Lars Joseph Ceesay to score22%
Gerard Yepes Laut to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cesena	X	2 · Empoli
Betsafe	2.08	3.30	3.25
LeoVegas	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	3.20
Nordicbet	2.08	3.30	3.25

Odds updated 20 Oct, 21:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cesena 0Draw 1Empoli 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cesena

Empoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cesena (8–9)

Empoli (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cesena

Empoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cesena

Empoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cesena	Empoli
Points	8	7
xPoints	10.2	8.5
xG per match	1	0.89
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.21

Playing style	Cesena	Empoli
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.4	0.3
xT per match	0.65	0.44
xTA per match	0.79	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.69
Passes per match	336	317
Passes against per match	418	444
Switches of play per match	26.3	23.4
Long balls per match	33	31

Set pieces	Cesena	Empoli
xG from free kicks	0.06	0
Corners per match	4.4	4
Corners against per match	6	3.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.3

Other	Cesena	Empoli
Throw-in control	0.76	0.73

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)
Saves	24	31
Save %	73%	76%
xG prevented	66%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Empoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cesena vs Empoli according to our model?

The model gives Cesena a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cesena 44%, draw 29%, Empoli 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Cesena vs Empoli?

The model expects 1.57 goals (xG) for Cesena and 1.12 for Empoli, 2.69 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Cesena or draw (1X) 73%, Empoli or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.