Liga MXEstadio Universitario, Monterrey20°3,6 mm13 km/h

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    Tigres UANLTigres UANLPossession control
    2–0
    AtlanteAtlanteLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Tigres UANL (71%)

    Tigres UANL – Atlante · Liga MX

    1 · Tigres UANL 71%X 17%12% Atlante · 2

    Analysis: Tigres UANL – Atlante

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Tigres UANL and Atlante have faced off only three times since 2023, making their head-to-head record a minor factor compared to current form and expected goals. With Tigres playing at home, they have a substantial edge, winning 64% of their matches in front of their crowd historically. Meanwhile, Atlante's low defensive setup might struggle against the hosts' possession-heavy game, which is designed to dismantle teams that sit deep.

    Despite a slightly better point tally this season, Atlante's underlying numbers suggest vulnerability. Their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 1.8 per match, substantially higher compared to Tigres' 1.3, indicating defensive frailties. On the other hand, Tigres' expected goals (xG) of 1.6 per match outshine Atlante's 1.0, emphasizing their offensive potential. These figures align with Tigres' favorable model probabilities, which give them a 71% chance of victory, suggesting they should dominate the encounter.

    The expected goals tally points to a likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of the hosts, with the model indicating a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals. The predicted light rain might slightly temper goal-scoring conditions, but the effect is already factored into the analysis. A defensive Atlante is unlikely to find much joy against Tigres' organized attack, and their direct style may struggle to exploit opportunities effectively.

    For bettors seeking value, the home win odds of 1.48 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 5% edge over the model's evaluation. Given the high probability of a Tigres triumph, this betting line stands out as a profitable angle.

    Tigres UANLTigres UANL
    Form LLDLL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #9xP/match #8Points #16
    Key players
    • Fernando GorriaranCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.72 · xT 0.23
    • Diego LainezRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
    AtlanteAtlante
    Form LDWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #14xP/match #10Points #13
    Key players
    • Eugenio PizzutoRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
    • Jhojan JulioFxG 0.33 · xT 0.22
    • Luis Fernando Puente PradoFxG 0.24 · xT -0.10
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Tigres UANL 71% · Draw 17% · Atlante 12%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - TigresBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,75fair 4,88-3 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - AtlanteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 22,22fair 36,01-38 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Tigres UANL – Atlante

    Predicted score matrix

    Atlante →
    Tigres UANL →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.0%
    0–13.6%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–010.2%
    1–18.9%
    1–23.6%
    1–31.0%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–011.7%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.7%
    3–17.2%
    3–23.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–08.2%
    4+–16.8%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-09%
    Expected goals
    2,23–0,82
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.25
    Over 2,559%
    @1.70EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Tigres UANL to win71%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Tigres UANL to win71%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Ángel Martín Correa Martínez to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Ángel Martín Correa Martínez to score28%
    • Juan Nicolás Carrera Zarzar to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.55PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.50BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.50NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tigres UANLX2 · Atlante
    Betsafe
    EV+ 5%
    1.48    		4.056.30
    Betsson
    EV+ 7%
    1.50    		4.155.40
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    1.50    		4.155.40
    Paddy Power1.304.757.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    1.55    		4.595.60

    Odds updated 22 Aug, 00:30

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Atlante win since 20 August — the odds have shortened from 6.17 to 5.60 (−9%).

    1+7 %
    66 %61 %

    1.45 → 1.55

    X-5 %
    23 %18 %

    4.83 → 4.59

    2-9 %
    19 %14 %

    6.17 → 5.60

    Over 2,50 %
    58 %53 %

    1.69 → 1.70

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Tigres UANL win 64% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tigres UANL
    Atlante
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tigres UANL (6–10)
    Atlante (5–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tigres UANL
    Fernando Gorriaran: 164 passningar, xT 0.25GorriaranRômulo Zanre Zwarg: 161 passningar, xT 0.15ZwargJesus Garza: 151 passningar, xT 0.12GarzaJuan Brunetta: 142 passningar, xT 0.61BrunettaJoaquim Henrique Pereira Silva: 140 passningar, xT 0.48SilvaCésar Nahuel Araújo Vilches: 122 passningar, xT 0.22VilchesDiego Lainez: 114 passningar, xT 0.52LainezNahuel Guzman: 81 passningar, xT 0.11GuzmanVladimir Lorona: 77 passningar, xT -0.04LoronaDiego Alexander Sánchez Guevara: 46 passningar, xT 0.42GuevaraFrancisco Manuel Reyes Maldonado: 42 passningar, xT 0.07Maldonado
    Atlante
    Walter Portales: 93 passningar, xT 0.65PortalesEugenio Pizzuto: 92 passningar, xT 0.15PizzutoNico Carrera: 91 passningar, xT 0.18CarreraOscar Jimenez: 82 passningar, xT 0.03JimenezEduardo Tercero: 76 passningar, xT 0.1TerceroLuis Ángel Calzadilla Santillán: 62 passningar, xT 0.13SantillánLuis Sanchez: 56 passningar, xT 0.07SanchezJhojan Julio: 55 passningar, xT 0.52JulioMartín Alejandro Fernández Figueira: 52 passningar, xT 0.02FigueiraEdgar Saúl Jiménez Sánchez: 40 passningar, xT 0.29SánchezLuis Fernando Puente Prado: 34 passningar, xT -0.34Prado
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tigres UANL
    Fernando Gorriaran: 164 passningar, xT 0.25GorriaranRômulo Zanre Zwarg: 161 passningar, xT 0.15ZwargJesus Garza: 151 passningar, xT 0.12GarzaJuan Brunetta: 142 passningar, xT 0.61BrunettaJoaquim Henrique Pereira Silva: 140 passningar, xT 0.48SilvaCésar Nahuel Araújo Vilches: 122 passningar, xT 0.22VilchesDiego Lainez: 114 passningar, xT 0.52LainezNahuel Guzman: 81 passningar, xT 0.11GuzmanVladimir Lorona: 77 passningar, xT -0.04LoronaDiego Alexander Sánchez Guevara: 46 passningar, xT 0.42GuevaraFrancisco Manuel Reyes Maldonado: 42 passningar, xT 0.07Maldonado
    Atlante
    Walter Portales: 93 passningar, xT 0.65PortalesEugenio Pizzuto: 92 passningar, xT 0.15PizzutoNico Carrera: 91 passningar, xT 0.18CarreraOscar Jimenez: 82 passningar, xT 0.03JimenezEduardo Tercero: 76 passningar, xT 0.1TerceroLuis Ángel Calzadilla Santillán: 62 passningar, xT 0.13SantillánLuis Sanchez: 56 passningar, xT 0.07SanchezJhojan Julio: 55 passningar, xT 0.52JulioMartín Alejandro Fernández Figueira: 52 passningar, xT 0.02FigueiraEdgar Saúl Jiménez Sánchez: 40 passningar, xT 0.29SánchezLuis Fernando Puente Prado: 34 passningar, xT -0.34Prado

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTigres UANLAtlante
    Points15
    xPoints5.45.2
    xG per match1.61
    xGA per match1.31.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.11
    Playing styleTigres UANLAtlante
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.630.39
    xT per match10.75
    xTA per match0.691.3
    Won balls, offensive half3127
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.230.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.28
    Entries into the box per match178
    Entries into the box against813
    Pass completion %0.760.63
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.64
    Passes per match335211
    Passes against per match306381
    Switches of play per match27.815.4
    Long balls per match2926
    Set piecesTigres UANLAtlante
    xG from free kicks0.010
    Corners per match9.85
    Corners against per match38.4
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.76
    OtherTigres UANLAtlante
    Throw-in control0.560.63
    The goalkeepersNahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL)Oscar Jimenez (Atlante)
    Saves1019
    Save %50%79%
    xG prevented22%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Tigres UANL
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Atlante
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tigres UANL vs Atlante according to our model?

    The model gives Tigres UANL a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tigres UANL 71%, draw 17%, Atlante 12%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.