Wisła Płock vs KS Cracovia: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa13 September 202613°7 km/h

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Wisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses

3–1

KS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · KS Cracovia (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+37 %)

1 · Wisła Płock 32%X 26%42% KS Cracovia · 2

32%

26%

42%

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Analysis: Wisła Płock – KS Cracovia

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

KS Cracovia's tactical discipline could be the key tomorrow. With their inclination towards counter-attacking and a reliance on crossing, they mirror Wisła Płock’s style, setting up an intriguing tactical battle. However, Cracovia's defensive solidity stands out — it's a critical difference that could tip the scales in their favor. Their xGA of 1.3 per match, compared to Wisła Płock’s 1.9, suggests a resilience in the back line that their hosts might struggle to breach.

Despite the small head-to-head sample, which shows Wisła Płock unbeaten in their last two meetings, the broader form hints at an edge for Cracovia. They lead both in actual points (8 vs. 5) and xPoints (9.8 vs. 7.6). These stats suggest that Cracovia has been more effective in converting underlying performance into results. The model backs this up, giving the visitors a 42% chance of victory, and positioning them well to exploit Wisła Płock's defensive vulnerabilities.

While the most likely scoreline seems to be a 1-1 draw, with a 12% probability, other outcomes favor Cracovia. The odds for a 1-2 or 0-1 Cracovia victory are 9%, consistent with the expected goals prediction: Wisła Płock 1.28, Cracovia 1.64. This points to a closely contested match, yet the visitors have the upper hand in defensive organization, which could make all the difference.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies with Cracovia's away win priced at 2.72. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering these odds, and the model rating Cracovia's chances at 42%, there's a 14% edge that savvy punters might find compelling. The 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and 58% chance of both teams scoring hint at action on the scoreboard, but with Cracovia's defensive record, their ability to edge ahead stands out as the smartest play.

Wisła Płock

Form DLLLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #15xP/match #14Points #16

Key players

Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Jorge JimenezFxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
Žan RogeljRBxG 0.16 · xT 0.06

KS Cracovia

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #5xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.34
Mateusz Andrzej KlichCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
Amir Al AmmariCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Final score

3 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wisła Płock 32% · Draw 26% · KS Cracovia 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Cracovia KrakowBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,99fair 7,14+26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Wisla PlockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,19fair 11,62-30 %

Hit

Match prediction: Wisła Płock – KS Cracovia

Predicted score matrix

KS Cracovia →

Wisła Płock →

0–05.7%

0–18.5%

0–27.2%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.3%

1–06.6%

1–111.7%

1–29.3%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.4%

2–17.3%

2–25.9%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.9%

3–01.9%

3–13.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,28–1,64

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.93

Over 2,556%

@2.10EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ajdin Hasić to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ajdin Hasić to score29%
Amir Fouad Aboud Al Ammari to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.517% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+37%reference odds
Over 3.533% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+34%reference odds
Over 2.556% probability@2.10Paddy PowerEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wisła Płock	X	2 · KS Cracovia
Betsafe	2.45	3.20	EV+ 14% 2.72
Betsson	2.45	3.20	EV+ 14% 2.72
Nordicbet	2.45	3.20	EV+ 14% 2.72
Paddy Power	2.50	3.10	EV+ 5% 2.50
Pinnacle	2.58	3.42	EV+ 15% 2.76

Odds updated 13 Sept, 07:00

Odds movement

1-5 %

39 %34 %

2.73 → 2.58

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.37 → 3.42

2+9 %

38 %33 %

2.53 → 2.76

Over 2,5+1 %

53 %48 %

1.90 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 13/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wisła Płock 1Draw 1KS Cracovia 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wisła Płock

KS Cracovia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wisła Płock (4–11)

KS Cracovia (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wisła Płock

KS Cracovia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wisła Płock

KS Cracovia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wisła Płock	KS Cracovia
Points	5	8
xPoints	7.6	9.8
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.9	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.2

Playing style	Wisła Płock	KS Cracovia
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.49
xT per match	0.91	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	28	28
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.67
Passes per match	355	314
Passes against per match	346	326
Switches of play per match	28.1	18.1
Long balls per match	28	24

Set pieces	Wisła Płock	KS Cracovia
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.02
Corners per match	7.4	6.8
Corners against per match	3.7	6.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.67

Other	Wisła Płock	KS Cracovia
Throw-in control	0.84	0.77

The goalkeepers	Rafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock)	Sebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)
Saves	15	23
Save %	58%	74%
xG prevented	41%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wisła Płock

Fixtures, form & tips

KS Cracovia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisła Płock vs KS Cracovia according to our model?

The model gives KS Cracovia a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisła Płock 32%, draw 26%, KS Cracovia 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.