Liga Portugal 224°13 km/h

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    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    vs
    PenafielPenafiel
    The model's lean: 1 · Felgueiras (45%)

    Felgueiras – Penafiel · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Felgueiras 45%X 30%25% Penafiel · 2

    Analysis: Felgueiras – Penafiel

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Felgueiras have emerged as a team in form, currently unbeaten in six consecutive league matches. This recent streak contrasts with their head-to-head record against Penafiel, where they have only managed one win in four meetings since 2023. However, the historical sample is small and weighs less than their current form and expected goals. The probability model gives the hosts a 45% chance of victory, suggesting that Felgueiras are the likely favorites going into this game.

    Penafiel, while on a scoring streak of nine consecutive league matches, face a tough challenge against a team that has been difficult to beat recently. With expected goals of 0.96 for the visitors against 1.36 for the hosts, the offensive edge seems to favor Felgueiras. Yet, the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match remains high, with the most probable outcomes being 1-1 or 1-0, both at 13%.

    While the over 2.5 goals probability is a modest 41%, indicating a lean towards a tighter contest, the sharpest angle for bettors is the value on a home win. With odds of 2.28 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the 3% edge according to the model presents a worthwhile opportunity for those backing Felgueiras to continue their unbeaten run.

    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    Form WDDDW
    Key players
    • Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Lucas da Costa DuarteFxG 0.22 · xT 0.01
    PenafielPenafiel
    Form LWLWW
    Key players
    • Max Svensson RíoLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.07
    • João Gonçalo Teixeira PintoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.19
    • Cláudio Moreira da SilvaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26

    Match prediction: Felgueiras – Penafiel

    Predicted score matrix

    Penafiel →
    Felgueiras →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.2%
    0–19.1%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.0%
    1–113.2%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.1%
    2–18.7%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–13.9%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,36–0,96
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.55
    Over 2,541%
    @2.30

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Mario Rivas Viondi to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Mario Rivas Viondi to score22%
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.28BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FelgueirasX2 · Penafiel
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 8%
    2.39    		3.103.20

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:31

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    42 %37 %

    2.37 → 2.39

    X+1 %
    33 %28 %

    3.06 → 3.10

    2+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.17 → 3.20

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Felgueiras 1Draw 1Penafiel 2
    Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Felgueiras 1932 are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • Penafiel have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Felgueiras
    Penafiel
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Felgueiras (4–3)
    Penafiel (5–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Francisco Franca: 111 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFilipe Cruz: 99 passningar, xT 0.46CruzEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 96 passningar, xT 0.21CruzRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 86 passningar, xT 0.3AlmeidaMateus Pasinato: 85 passningar, xT 0.09PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 72 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 69 passningar, xT 0.13CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12MartinsAfonso Freitas: 39 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    Penafiel
    Jaime Sánchez Muñoz: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MuñozCláudio Moreira da Silva: 77 passningar, xT 0.38SilvaAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 72 passningar, xT 0.04VallésAdrián Hernández Hernández: 72 passningar, xT 0.07HernándezPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 60 passningar, xT -0.02SáGoncalo Negrao: 42 passningar, xT 0.43NegraoTeddy Alloh: 42 passningar, xT 0.06AllohMiguel Oliveira: 38 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 30 passningar, xT 0.27PintoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 15 passningar, xT 0.15ReyMax Svensson Río: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Río
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Francisco Franca: 111 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroFilipe Cruz: 99 passningar, xT 0.46CruzEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 96 passningar, xT 0.21CruzRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 86 passningar, xT 0.3AlmeidaMateus Pasinato: 85 passningar, xT 0.09PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 72 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 69 passningar, xT 0.13CostaHenrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12MartinsAfonso Freitas: 39 passningar, xT 0.3Freitas
    Penafiel
    Jaime Sánchez Muñoz: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MuñozCláudio Moreira da Silva: 77 passningar, xT 0.38SilvaAlejandro Carbonell Vallés: 72 passningar, xT 0.04VallésAdrián Hernández Hernández: 72 passningar, xT 0.07HernándezPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 60 passningar, xT -0.02SáGoncalo Negrao: 42 passningar, xT 0.43NegraoTeddy Alloh: 42 passningar, xT 0.06AllohMiguel Oliveira: 38 passningar, xT 0.06OliveiraJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 30 passningar, xT 0.27PintoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 15 passningar, xT 0.15ReyMax Svensson Río: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Río
    The goalkeepersMateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel)
    Saves108
    Save %77%100%
    xG prevented86%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Felgueiras
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Penafiel
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Felgueiras vs Penafiel according to our model?

    The model gives Felgueiras a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Felgueiras 45%, draw 30%, Penafiel 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

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    1 41%X 28%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    PenafielPenafiel
    0–1
    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VizelaVizela
    1–0
    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    1 39%X 30%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.