01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vizela to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Liga Portugal 223°8 km/h
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Porto Bvs
VizelaThe model's lean: 2 · Vizela (48%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.13 (+2 %)
Porto B – Vizela · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Porto B 24%X 27%48% Vizela · 2
24%
27%
48%
Analysis: Porto B – Vizela
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Vizela has dominated their recent showdowns with Porto B, winning three of the last four encounters since 2023. While the head-to-head sample is small, it does hint at a psychological edge for the visitors despite the hosts' home advantage. The model aligns with this narrative, giving Vizela a solid 48% chance of victory compared to Porto B's 24%.
The expected goals forecast paints a picture of a closely contested match, with Porto's 1.12 trailing Vizela's 1.47. This suggests Vizela's slight superiority but also hints at a competitive game. The most likely outcomes—1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 11%—underline a slender margin that favors the visitors but doesn’t rule out a resilient performance from the hosts.
With 52% odds for both teams to score and an over 2.5 goals probability of 48%, the attack-minded approach seems likely to feature prominently. Yet, the likelihood of a low-scoring affair lingers just as strongly. The tension between these probabilities makes predicting the exact number of goals tricky, but the model's slight lean towards Vizela suggests they might edge it.
For bettors, the standout angle is the over 2.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds at 2.1 and the model rating it a 48% probability, there's a slender 1% edge in this line. While not a guarantee, this represents a calculated gamble for those looking to find value beyond the conventional match outcome bets.
Porto BForm WWLWL
Key players
- Tiago AndradeLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.48
- Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
- Antonio RibeiroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
VizelaForm LWLDW
Key players
- Matías Rafael Lacava GonzálezFxG 0.36 · xT 0.17
- Giovani BambaFxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
- Jean Pierre RhynerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Porto B – Vizela
Predicted score matrix
Vizela →
Porto B →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–110.6%
0–28.1%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.7%
1–29.1%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–04.7%
2–16.9%
2–25.1%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.6%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,12–1,47
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.69
Over 2,548%
@2.13EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vizela to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Heinz Robert Mörschel Moreno to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Bernardo Pinto Lima to score25%
- Aleksandar Busnić to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.548% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Over 2.548% probability@2.10BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- Over 2.548% probability@2.10BetssonEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Porto B | X | 2 · Vizela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Betsson | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.72 | 3.28 | 2.03 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPorto B 1Draw 0Vizela 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Porto B
Vizela
Porto B (2–6)
Vizela (4–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Porto B
Vizela
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Porto B
Vizela
| The goalkeepers | João de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B) | Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 13 |
| Save % | 63% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Academica – Benfica B13 September 2026
- Chaves – Feirense13 September 2026
- AVS – Farense13 September 2026
- Portimonense – Tondela13 September 2026
- Sporting CP B – Lusitania FC13 September 2026
- Amarante Futebol Clube – União de Leiria13 September 2026
- Felgueiras – Penafiel13 September 2026
- Torreense – Leixões13 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Porto B vs Vizela according to our model?
The model gives Vizela a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto B 24%, draw 27%, Vizela 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.