Torreense vs Leixões: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Liga Portugal 213 September 202621°19 km/h

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Torreense

Leixões

The model's lean: 1 · Torreense (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.63 (+6 %)

1 · Torreense 45%X 29%25% Leixões · 2

45%

29%

25%

Analysis: Torreense – Leixões

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A tight 1-1 draw holds the highest probability (13%) as Torreense prepares to host Leixões in Liga Portugal 2, pitting the league's mid-table competitors against each other. The balance between these two teams is reflected in their head-to-head record since 2023, showing one win each and two draws over four encounters. However, with a small sample size, current form and expected goals provide a more reliable forecast for this matchup.

Torreense enters with a 45% win chance according to the model, underlining their slight edge. Their expected goals tally of 1.47 suggests that they might just have enough firepower to secure a narrow victory, perhaps a 1-0 win, which stands at an 11% likelihood.

Leixões, with a modest 25% probability of winning, will need to defy the odds and recent form. Their expected goals of 1.05 imply they may struggle to break down Torreense's defense.

With a 50% chance of both teams scoring and only a 46% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, this fixture seems poised for a low-scoring affair. Bettors might see value in under 2.5 goals, aligning with expectations of a defensively disciplined game.

Torreense's slight edge in the model probabilities and expected performance metrics suggests they hold the advantage heading into this match.

Torreense

Form WWLDL

Key players

Ianique dos Santos TavaresCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.23
Volnei FeltesCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Alejandro Alfaro CascalesRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Leixões

Form WLWLW

Key players

Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
Simão Pedro Soares AzevedoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.35
Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Torreense – Leixões

Predicted score matrix

Leixões →

Torreense →

0–08.4%

0–18.1%

0–24.4%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.4%

1–112.8%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.1%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.3%

3–14.5%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,47–1,05

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.96EV+5%

Over 2,546%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Torreense to win45%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Torreense to win45%
Under 2.5 goals54%
André Filipe Encarnação Simões to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score25%
Edinaldo Gomes Pereira to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Torreense	X	2 · Leixões
Pinnacle	2.11	EV+ 6% 3.63	3.28

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

Odds movement

1-1 %

47 %42 %

2.13 → 2.11

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.63

2+4 %

32 %27 %

3.16 → 3.28

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %49 %

1.82 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Torreense 1Draw 2Leixões 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Torreense

Leixões

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Torreense (3–7)

Leixões (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Torreense

Leixões

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Torreense

Leixões

The goalkeepers	Adriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense)	Igor Stefanovic (Leixões)
Saves	9	8
Save %	56%	62%
xG prevented	30%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Torreense

Fixtures, form & tips

Leixões

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Torreense vs Leixões according to our model?

The model gives Torreense a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Torreense 45%, draw 29%, Leixões 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.