Portimonense vs Tondela: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Liga Portugal 213 September 202625°13 km/h

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Portimonense

Tondela

The model's lean: 1 · Portimonense (38%)

1 · Portimonense 38%X 30%32% Tondela · 2

38%

30%

32%

Analysis: Portimonense – Tondela

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Tondela's recent form leaves much to be desired, having lost their last three matches. This downturn in results starkly contrasts with the hosts' more stable footing. Although Portimonense have yet to face Tondela more than once since 2023 — a match they lost — the small sample size means it weighs less in the analysis than current form and expected goals. The odds suggest a tight contest, but the numbers favor the home side.

Portimonense's model probability sits at 38%, reflecting a slight edge over Tondela's 32%. This is mirrored in the expected goals: 1.32 for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors. It hints at a likely close match, where defensive solidity could play a pivotal role. Given the percentages, it seems the hosts have the slimmest margin of advantage, with a 1-0 victory as probable as a 0-1 defeat, each sitting at 9% likelihood.

The market is skeptical of a high-scoring game, with the over 2.5 goals pegged at just 48%. The balance tilts towards a tight, low-scoring affair. A 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 13%, suggesting both teams could find the net, yet an explosion of goals is unlikely.

The betting value stands firmly with Portimonense. With odds of 2.8 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and an implied probability of 38% from the model, there's a notable 6% edge. The cautious bettor should spot this as the sharpest angle. While this isn't a cast-iron guarantee, it's a well-judged opportunity for those who prefer stability over high-risk ventures.

Portimonense

Form WDWWL

Key players

Tiago Filipe Prazeres FerreiraRWBxG 0.20 · xT 0.12
Edney Henrique Santos da SilvaRWxG 0.55 · xT 0.09
Samuel Neves BengueCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Tondela

Form WWLLL

Key players

Joao MarcosFxG 0.40 · xT 0.03
CascavelRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
Joao AfonsoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Portimonense – Tondela

Predicted score matrix

Tondela →

Portimonense →

0–07.8%

0–19.1%

0–26.1%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.5%

1–112.9%

1–28.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.5%

2–18.3%

2–25.3%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.9%

3–13.6%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,32–1,28

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.65

Over 2,548%

@2.24EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro to score22%
João Vitor Xavier de Almeida to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Portimonense38% probability@3.03PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
1 · Portimonense38% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
1 · Portimonense38% probability@2.95BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Portimonense	X	2 · Tondela
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.95	3.15	2.30
Betsson	EV+ 12% 2.95	3.15	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.95	3.15	2.30
Pinnacle	EV+ 15% 3.03	EV+ 1% 3.35	2.36

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.76 to 1.65 (−6%).

1-1 %

34 %29 %

3.07 → 3.03

X-4 %

30 %25 %

3.48 → 3.35

2+6 %

44 %39 %

2.22 → 2.36

Over 2,5+10 %

47 %42 %

2.04 → 2.24

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Portimonense 0Draw 0Tondela 1

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Tondela have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Portimonense

Tondela

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Portimonense (2–2)

Tondela (2–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Portimonense

Tondela

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Portimonense

Tondela

The goalkeepers	Eduardo dos Santos Haesler (Portimonense)	Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)
Saves	4	8
Save %	67%	73%
xG prevented	30%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Portimonense

Fixtures, form & tips

Tondela

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Portimonense vs Tondela according to our model?

The model gives Portimonense a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portimonense 38%, draw 30%, Tondela 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.