Cádiz vs Real Valladolid: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Segunda División30 August 202624°13 km/h

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CádizPossession & high press

1–1

Real ValladolidBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Real Valladolid (39%)

1 · Cádiz 33%X 28%39% Real Valladolid · 2

33%

28%

39%

Analysis: Cádiz – Real Valladolid

Marcus Johansson · 29 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Real Valladolid's five-game losing streak casts a shadow over their visit to Cádiz. Despite Valladolid's poor run, the model sees them as slight favorites with a 39% chance of victory. Cádiz may only have a 33% chance of winning but have the recent-form edge, having picked up two points this season compared to Valladolid's zero.

The hosts prefer a possession-based game with a high press, whereas Valladolid leans on a more balanced and physical approach. Cádiz's style might be key here, as they generate 0.25 expected goals within 8 seconds of winning the ball, suggesting they can capitalize quickly on turnovers. In contrast, Valladolid has managed just 0.1 xG in similar situations. However, Cádiz's overall xG per match is only marginally higher at 1.1 compared to Valladolid's 0.8.

With a small head-to-head sample of just two matches since 2023, where Cádiz has yet to win, current form and expected goals should weigh more heavily. The most likely scorelines—1-1, 0-1, and 1-0—all sit at 11% or higher, underscoring the expected closeness of this contest. Both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 48%, while the probability for over 2.5 goals is modest at 42%.

In terms of betting angles, there's notable value on Valladolid to win at odds of 2.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 39% probability represents a 15% edge over these bookmakers. While Valladolid's form is grim, the odds provide an attractive risk-reward scenario for those willing to back the visitors to turn their fortunes around.

Cádiz

Form DWLDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #19xP/match #6Points #15

Key players

Antonio José Cordero CampilloLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Jose Antonio De La RosaRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
Damián Rodríguez SousaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Real Valladolid

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #5xT #16xP/match #10Points #21

Key players

Julien PonceauCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Yeray CabanzonRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
Ramón MartínezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cádiz 33% · Draw 28% · Real Valladolid 39%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ValladolidBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,65fair 14,22-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CádizBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,64fair 14,40-26 %

Miss

Match prediction: Cádiz – Real Valladolid

Predicted score matrix

Real Valladolid →

Cádiz →

0–09.8%

0–110.8%

0–26.6%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.7%

1–113.5%

1–27.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.5%

2–17.7%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.6%

3–13.0%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-011%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,18–1,18

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.64

Over 2,542%

@2.48EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Real Valladolid or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Real Valladolid or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Víctor Andrés Meseguer Cavas to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Álvaro Miguel García Pascual to score32%
Ibrahim Akitunde Alani to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Real Valladolid39% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+28%reference odds
2 · Real Valladolid39% probability@3.20Betfair ExchangeEV+25%reference odds
2 · Real Valladolid39% probability@3.00Bet365EV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cádiz	X	2 · Real Valladolid
Bet365	2.55	3.00	EV+ 17% 3.00
Betfair Exchange	2.58	3.20	EV+ 25% 3.20
Betsafe	2.55	2.95	EV+ 7% 2.75
Betsson	2.55	2.95	EV+ 7% 2.75
Nordicbet	2.55	2.95	EV+ 7% 2.75
Paddy Power	2.15	3.00	EV+ 28% 3.30
Pinnacle	2.70	3.07	EV+ 15% 2.95

Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Real Valladolid win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 3.22 to 2.95 (−8%).

1+11 %

40 %35 %

2.43 → 2.70

X+2 %

34 %29 %

3.01 → 3.07

2-8 %

34 %29 %

3.22 → 2.95

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cádiz 0Draw 1Real Valladolid 1

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Real Valladolid CF have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cádiz

Real Valladolid

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cádiz (2–2)

Real Valladolid (0–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Real Valladolid

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Real Valladolid

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cádiz	Real Valladolid
Points	2	0
xPoints	3.2	2.9
xG per match	1.1	0.8
xGA per match	0.66	0.66
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.1

Playing style	Cádiz	Real Valladolid
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.45	0.6
xT per match	0.53	0.64
xTA per match	0.49	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.12
Entries into the box per match	6	9
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.76
Passes per match	409	471
Passes against per match	336	385
Switches of play per match	27.9	44.5
Long balls per match	34	43

Set pieces	Cádiz	Real Valladolid
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4.6	3.5
Corners against per match	4.1	4
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.25

Other	Cádiz	Real Valladolid
Throw-in control	0.66	0.77

The goalkeepers	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)	Álvaro Aceves Catalina (Real Valladolid)
Saves	9	3
Save %	82%	50%
xG prevented	69%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cádiz

Fixtures, form & tips

Real Valladolid

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cádiz vs Real Valladolid according to our model?

The model gives Real Valladolid a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 33%, draw 28%, Real Valladolid 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.