Leganés vs Eldense: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Segunda División29 August 202623°8 km/h

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LeganésLow block & direct

1–0

EldenseBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Leganés (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Eldense @ 4.37 (+24 %)

1 · Leganés 43%X 29%28% Eldense · 2

43%

29%

28%

Analysis: Leganés – Eldense

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Leganés may be the model's slight favorite with a 43% chance of winning, but the clash against Eldense is tighter than it seems. The hosts have shown inefficiencies in their goal-scoring potential, averaging only 0.33 xG per match compared to Eldense's more robust 0.7. Despite Leganés' direct style, their defensive frailties are evident, leaking an average of 2.0 xGA per game. This defensive vulnerability could give Eldense, who boast a more balanced and physical approach, an unexpected advantage.

While Leganés has gathered more points, with four compared to Eldense's solitary point, the underlying metrics tell a different story. The xPoints edge of 1.8 to 1.4 slightly favors Leganés, yet it underscores a closely matched contest. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 or 1-0 suggest a low-scoring affair, consistent with the expected goals tally of Leganés at 1.42 and Eldense at 0.98.

In the context of over/under betting, the odds lean towards a cautious under 2.5 goals, given the 43% probability of exceeding that threshold. Both teams to score stands at 48%, highlighting a scenario where a single goal might determine the outcome.

The head-to-head sample is too small to override current form and expected goals data, making the recent form and style all the more critical. And here's where the value lies: despite the narrow edge for the home side, Eldense holds significant betting value at odds of 3.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Eldense's chances at 28%, providing a 6% edge. This presents a prime opportunity for those seeking a calculated risk against the favorite. Ultimately, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable outcome, but Eldense's odds beckon the shrewd bettor.

Leganés

Form DLWDW

League ranking xG #22xGA #21xT #22xP/match #19Points #5

Key players

Ismaël Seifallah GharbiCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Zico BuurmeesterRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
Lalo AguilarCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.00

Eldense

Form DDLLD

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #12xP/match #22Points #19

Key players

Mariano Emilio Carmona CerezoFxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
Guillermo Macho MuñozCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.21

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Leganés 43% · Draw 29% · Eldense 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CD EldenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,86fair 21,35-30 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Leganés CDBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,04fair 10,25-31 %

Miss

Match prediction: Leganés – Eldense

Predicted score matrix

Eldense →

Leganés →

0–09.4%

0–18.5%

0–24.3%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.5%

1–113.0%

1–26.2%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.2%

2–19.0%

2–24.4%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.4%

3–14.3%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.0-09%
4.2-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,42–0,98

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.70

Over 2,543%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Leganés or draw (1X)74%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Leganés or draw (1X)74%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Gonzalo Julián Melero Manzanares to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Gonzalo Julián Melero Manzanares to score26%
Iñigo Sebastián Magaña to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Eldense28% probability@4.37PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
2 · Eldense28% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · Eldense28% probability@3.85BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leganés	X	2 · Eldense
Betsafe	1.88	3.35	EV+ 9% 3.85
Betsson	1.88	3.35	EV+ 9% 3.85
Nordicbet	1.88	3.35	EV+ 9% 3.85
Pinnacle	1.90	EV+ 2% 3.53	EV+ 24% 4.37

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

1-3 %

52 %47 %

1.95 → 1.90

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.58 → 3.53

2+16 %

26 %21 %

3.78 → 4.37

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leganés

Eldense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leganés (2–1)

Eldense (2–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leganés

Eldense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leganés

Eldense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leganés	Eldense
Points	4	1
xPoints	1.8	1.4
xG per match	0.33	0.7
xGA per match	2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.23

Playing style	Leganés	Eldense
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.15	0.58
xT per match	0.21	0.76
xTA per match	2.3	0.59
Won balls, offensive half	14	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.18
Entries into the box per match	3	12
Entries into the box against	22	8
Pass completion %	0.66	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.68
Passes per match	200	339
Passes against per match	555	427
Switches of play per match	14	20.2
Long balls per match	20	23

Set pieces	Leganés	Eldense
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	1	6.7
Corners against per match	9	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	1	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.6

Other	Leganés	Eldense
Throw-in control	0.56	0.64

The goalkeepers	Raúl Fernández-Cavada Mateos (Leganés)	Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense)
Saves	6	6
Save %	86%	55%
xG prevented	66%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Eldense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leganés vs Eldense according to our model?

The model gives Leganés a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leganés 43%, draw 29%, Eldense 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.