Segunda División25°17 km/h

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    MallorcaMallorcaBalanced & physical
    3–0
    CeutaCeutaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Mallorca (61%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.88 (+13 %)

    Mallorca – Ceuta · Segunda División

    1 · Mallorca 61%X 23%16% Ceuta · 2

    Analysis: Mallorca – Ceuta

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Sixty-one percent. That's the model's probability of Mallorca securing a victory over Ceuta, a figure that speaks volumes about the balance of power in this matchup. The hosts have displayed a robust defensive form, conceding an average of just 1.0 goals against per match, a stark contrast to Ceuta's leaky defense, which has allowed an average of 2.1 goals against. Despite Ceuta's possession-focused style, their vulnerability at the back is hard to overlook.

    The expected goals tell a compelling story: Mallorca's 1.94 to Ceuta's 0.84. This suggests a likely struggle for the visitors to find the net, aligning with the most probable scorelines of 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of the home side. While both teams to score sits at 49%, the defensive solidity of Mallorca and Ceuta's attacking inefficiency lean towards a clean sheet for the hosts. With a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, the market slightly favors a more open game, but the numbers hint at a tighter contest.

    For those looking at potential value, Ceuta's victory at odds of 6.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet holds a 7% edge over the model's 16% probability. This is the standout betting angle, though it remains a high-risk play given the hosts' clear statistical superiority.

    MallorcaMallorca
    Form WL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #17xP/match #20Points #11
    Key players
    • Antonio RailloCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
    • Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    • Toni LatoLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
    CeutaCeuta
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #22xT #11xP/match #21Points #22
    Key players
    • Kialy Abdoul Abdoul KoneFxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
    • Cedric Wilfried Teguia NoubiRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.35
    • Kuki ZalazarCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Mallorca 61% · Draw 23% · Ceuta 16%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CeutaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 27,98fair 31,86-12 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - MallorcaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,56fair 6,09-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Mallorca – Ceuta

    Predicted score matrix

    Ceuta →
    Mallorca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–14.9%
    0–22.2%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.7%
    1–110.4%
    1–24.3%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.6%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–07.5%
    3–16.4%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–05.7%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.2-012%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    1,94–0,84
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.13EV+1%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.76

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Mallorca to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Mallorca to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Pablo Torre Carral to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Pablo Torre Carral to score29%
    • Youness Lachhab Didi to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw23% probability@4.88PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • 2 · Ceuta16% probability@6.91PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • 2 · Ceuta16% probability@6.80BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MallorcaX2 · Ceuta
    Betsafe1.394.30
    EV+ 10%
    6.80
    Betsson1.394.30
    EV+ 10%
    6.80
    Nordicbet1.394.30
    EV+ 10%
    6.80
    Pinnacle1.45
    EV+ 13%
    4.88
    EV+ 12%
    6.91

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Mallorca win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 1.49 to 1.45 (−3%).

    1-3 %
    67 %62 %

    1.49 → 1.45

    X+10 %
    23 %18 %

    4.45 → 4.88

    2+15 %
    17 %12 %

    6.02 → 6.91

    Over 2,50 %
    58 %53 %

    1.77 → 1.76

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mallorca
    Ceuta
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mallorca (2–2)
    Ceuta (1–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mallorca
    Antonio Raillo: 168 passningar, xT 0.28RailloMartin Valjent: 123 passningar, xT 0.11ValjentManu Morlanes: 95 passningar, xT 0.16MorlanesToni Lato: 89 passningar, xT -0.01LatoPablo Torre: 64 passningar, xT -0.02TorreArnau Tenas Ureña: 58 passningar, xT 0.13UreñaMiguel Calatayud García: 47 passningar, xT 0.21GarcíaÁlex Sala Herrero: 43 passningar, xT 0.04HerreroSergi Darder: 37 passningar, xT 0DarderAntoniu Roca Vives: 22 passningar, xT 0.05VivesZito André Sebastião Luvumbo: 15 passningar, xT 0.02Luvumbo
    Ceuta
    Marino Illescas: 94 passningar, xT 0.15IllescasYann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 57 passningar, xT 0.03BodigerGuillermo Vallejo: 50 passningar, xT 0.06VallejoCarlos Hernandez: 47 passningar, xT 0.04HernandezAdrián Lapeña Ruiz: 44 passningar, xT 0.01RuizAnuar Mohamed Tuhami: 43 passningar, xT 0.05TuhamiCarlos Redruello Nimo: 40 passningar, xT 0.36NimoKuki Zalazar: 37 passningar, xT 0.02ZalazarAle Melendez: 31 passningar, xT 0.01MelendezKialy Abdoul Abdoul Kone: 30 passningar, xT 0.13KoneCedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi: 26 passningar, xT 0.36Noubi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mallorca
    Antonio Raillo: 168 passningar, xT 0.28RailloMartin Valjent: 123 passningar, xT 0.11ValjentManu Morlanes: 95 passningar, xT 0.16MorlanesToni Lato: 89 passningar, xT -0.01LatoPablo Torre: 64 passningar, xT -0.02TorreArnau Tenas Ureña: 58 passningar, xT 0.13UreñaMiguel Calatayud García: 47 passningar, xT 0.21GarcíaÁlex Sala Herrero: 43 passningar, xT 0.04HerreroSergi Darder: 37 passningar, xT 0DarderAntoniu Roca Vives: 22 passningar, xT 0.05VivesZito André Sebastião Luvumbo: 15 passningar, xT 0.02Luvumbo
    Ceuta
    Marino Illescas: 94 passningar, xT 0.15IllescasYann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 57 passningar, xT 0.03BodigerGuillermo Vallejo: 50 passningar, xT 0.06VallejoCarlos Hernandez: 47 passningar, xT 0.04HernandezAdrián Lapeña Ruiz: 44 passningar, xT 0.01RuizAnuar Mohamed Tuhami: 43 passningar, xT 0.05TuhamiCarlos Redruello Nimo: 40 passningar, xT 0.36NimoKuki Zalazar: 37 passningar, xT 0.02ZalazarAle Melendez: 31 passningar, xT 0.01MelendezKialy Abdoul Abdoul Kone: 30 passningar, xT 0.13KoneCedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi: 26 passningar, xT 0.36Noubi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMallorcaCeuta
    Points30
    xPoints1.61.5
    xG per match0.620.91
    xGA per match12.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.44
    Playing styleMallorcaCeuta
    Build-up efficiency0.30.29
    Field tilt0.590.4
    xT per match0.630.79
    xTA per match0.61.1
    Won balls, offensive half2427
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.16
    Entries into the box per match1114
    Entries into the box against814
    Pass completion %0.810.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.63
    Passes per match414308
    Passes against per match343390
    Switches of play per match15.619.4
    Long balls per match2329
    Set piecesMallorcaCeuta
    xG from free kicks0.010.03
    Corners per match24.1
    Corners against per match4.53.1
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.67
    OtherMallorcaCeuta
    Throw-in control0.70.67
    The goalkeepersArnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)Guillermo Vallejo (Ceuta)
    Saves68
    Save %86%53%
    xG prevented67%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Mallorca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ceuta
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mallorca vs Ceuta according to our model?

    The model gives Mallorca a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mallorca 61%, draw 23%, Ceuta 16%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.