01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Las Palmas to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Segunda División26°34 km/h
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CádizBalanced & physical0–1
Las PalmasPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Las Palmas (49%)
Cádiz vs Las Palmas · Segunda División
1 · Cádiz 27%X 24%49% Las Palmas · 2
27%
24%
49%
Analysis: Cádiz – Las Palmas
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In their last two meetings, Las Palmas have come out on top against Cádiz, securing two wins. But with just two matches in this head-to-head history, it's hardly a decisive factor. Instead, looking at the current season's form and expected goals offers a more nuanced picture. Cádiz, despite having only 3 points so far, has been outperforming their results in terms of expected points, indicating a level of underperformance relative to their play quality. They generate 1.1 xG per match while keeping their xGA at 0.96, both superior to Las Palmas’ numbers.
Las Palmas, however, sits on 7 points, thanks to their possession-based approach which has been effective in grinding out results. They might not create as much in terms of expected goals, averaging 0.72 per match, but their style suits tight contests. The model sees them as having a 49% chance of winning, pointing to a tactical advantage despite their inferior expected goals metrics.
The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% suggests a balanced encounter, but a 0-1 result for the visitors at 11% is also well within the realm of possibility. The over/under 2.5 goals is finely poised at 48%, reinforcing the notion of a close and potentially low-scoring match. Both teams to score is a slender favorite at 52%, yet the hosts' better defensive numbers could tilt this.
The sharpest bet appears to be backing an away win at odds of 2.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model finds a solid 20% edge here, aligning with the visitors’ historical edge and current points total. It’s a pragmatic stance, favoring Las Palmas’ knack for getting results even when the performance data suggests otherwise.
CádizForm LDDDL
League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #21xP/match #5Points #18
Key players
- Jose Antonio De La RosaRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
- Javi CastroCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
- Manuel Rivera DomínguezLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Las PalmasForm DWWLD
League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #19xP/match #20Points #7
Key players
- Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
- Taisei MiyashiroRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
- Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cádiz 27% · Draw 24% · Las Palmas 49%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Las PalmasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,09fair 8,78+15 %
MissMatchresultat - CádizBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,50fair 17,27-51 %
MissMatch prediction: Cádiz – Las Palmas
Predicted score matrix
Las Palmas →
Cádiz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–111.1%
0–28.6%
0–34.3%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.6%
1–29.2%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–04.3%
2–16.6%
2–25.0%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.3%
3–21.8%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,07–1,51
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.79
Over 2,548%
@2.09
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Las Palmas to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score26%
- Enzo Lilian Marin Loiodice to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.99PinnacleEV+46%reference odds
- 2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
- 2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.80BetssonEV+37%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cádiz | X | 2 · Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.38 | 3.15 | EV+ 37% 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.15 | EV+ 37% 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | 3.15 | EV+ 37% 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.30 | EV+ 46% 2.99 |
Odds updated 12 Sept, 14:27
Odds movement
1-2 %
41 %31 %
2.57 → 2.51
X0 %
34 %24 %
3.31 → 3.30
2+8 %
40 %30 %
2.77 → 2.99
Over 2,5+2 %
51 %41 %
2.05 → 2.09
Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCádiz 0Draw 0Las Palmas 2
Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cádiz
Las Palmas
Cádiz (5–6)
Las Palmas (6–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cádiz
Las Palmas
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cádiz
Las Palmas
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cádiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 7 |
| xPoints | 6 | 4 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.72 |
| xGA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Cádiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| xTA per match | 0.59 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 386 | 426 |
| Passes against per match | 385 | 350 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.8 | 20.5 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Cádiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.5 |
| Other | Cádiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz) | José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 12 |
| Save % | 76% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Burgos – Ceuta11 September 2026
- Córdoba – Almería12 September 2026
- Girona – Castellon12 September 2026
- Granada – Albacete12 September 2026
- FC Andorra – Real Sociedad B12 September 2026
- Real Valladolid – Real Oviedo13 September 2026
- Mallorca – Sabadell13 September 2026
- CD Tenerife – Leganés13 September 2026
- Sporting Gijón – Eldense13 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cádiz vs Las Palmas according to our model?
The model gives Las Palmas a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 27%, draw 24%, Las Palmas 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.