Granada vs Albacete: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Segunda División12 September 202623°14 km/h

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GranadaPossession control

1–1

AlbaceteLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Granada (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Albacete @ 4.22 (+44 %)

1 · Granada 36%X 30%34% Albacete · 2

36%

30%

34%

Analysis: Granada – Albacete

Oscar Nilsson · 12 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Granada's 36% win probability stands out, but Albacete's recent losing streak, five in a row, looms larger in the pre-match analysis. Despite the possession-heavy approach of the hosts, both teams have comparable expected goals, with Granada at 1.33 and Albacete at 1.24. The model hints at a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13%, reflecting the small margins in play.

The sample of four head-to-head matches since 2023 is limited, showing a slight edge to Albacete with a 2-1-1 record. However, season form tilts in favor of the hosts. Granada holds the upper hand on points and expected points, creating an expectation of a low-scoring affair, with only a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Despite the model's slight lean toward Granada, there's a compelling value play on the visitors. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer Albacete at 3.35, which the model rates at 34% probability, creating a 14% value edge. With the odds in this range, punters might find the best angle in backing the visitors to snap their losing streak against the possession-focused hosts.

Granada

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #16xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Pedro AlemanFxG 0.22 · xT 0.15
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.35
Gerard GumbauCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02

Albacete

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #21xT #13xP/match #18Points #21

Key players

Jose CorpasFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Victor San Bartolome PrietoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Fran GamezRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.24

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Granada 36% · Draw 30% · Albacete 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AlbaceteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,68fair 12,65+8 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GranadaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,41fair 10,89-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: Granada – Albacete

Predicted score matrix

Albacete →

Granada →

0–08.0%

0–19.1%

0–25.8%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.8%

1–113.0%

1–27.8%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.8%

2–18.4%

2–25.2%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.0%

3–13.7%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,33–1,24

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.85

Over 2,547%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Granada or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Granada or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Alejandro Sola López-Ocaña to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Alejandro Sola López-Ocaña to score22%
Izan González Muñoz to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Albacete34% probability@4.22PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
2 · Albacete34% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
2 · Albacete34% probability@3.95BetssonEV+34%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Granada	X	2 · Albacete
Betsafe	1.85	EV+ 2% 3.35	EV+ 34% 3.95
Betsson	1.85	EV+ 2% 3.35	EV+ 34% 3.95
Nordicbet	1.85	EV+ 2% 3.35	EV+ 34% 3.95
Pinnacle	1.93	EV+ 7% 3.53	EV+ 44% 4.22

Odds updated 12 Sept, 15:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Granada win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.11 to 1.93 (−9%).

1-9 %

52 %42 %

2.11 → 1.93

X+7 %

33 %23 %

3.30 → 3.53

2+17 %

30 %20 %

3.60 → 4.22

Over 2,5-3 %

51 %41 %

2.09 → 2.02

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Granada 1Draw 1Albacete 2

Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Albacete Balompie have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Granada

Albacete

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Granada (5–4)

Albacete (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Granada

Albacete

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Granada

Albacete

The teams in numbers

Performance	Granada	Albacete
Points	7	0
xPoints	5.5	4.3
xG per match	0.94	0.87
xGA per match	0.99	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.27

Playing style	Granada	Albacete
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.35
Field tilt	0.5	0.5
xT per match	0.68	0.72
xTA per match	0.87	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	31
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	10	17
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.68
Passes per match	296	350
Passes against per match	350	394
Switches of play per match	29.9	32
Long balls per match	43	33

Set pieces	Granada	Albacete
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	4.3	5.5
Corners against per match	2.8	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.65	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.65

Other	Granada	Albacete
Throw-in control	0.67	0.71

The goalkeepers	Raul Lizoain (Granada)	Diego Marino (Albacete)
Saves	13	15
Save %	77%	68%
xG prevented	58%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Albacete

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Granada vs Albacete according to our model?

The model gives Granada a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Granada 36%, draw 30%, Albacete 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.