Córdoba vs Almería: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Segunda División12 September 202628°14 km/h

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CórdobaPossession control

0–2

AlmeríaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Córdoba (42%)

1 · Córdoba 42%X 27%31% Almería · 2

42%

27%

31%

Analysis: Córdoba – Almería

Marcus Johansson · 12 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Córdoba's possession-oriented style will clash with Almería's balanced and physical approach, setting the stage for an intriguing matchup. Despite the visitors holding an edge in recent head-to-head encounters with three wins out of four, the small sample size suggests caution in overvaluing this statistic. More revealing are their season stats: Córdoba's expected goals (xG) per match stand at 1.6, slightly higher than Almería's 1.3, indicating a potent attack that could exploit any lapse in Almería's defense.

The model leans toward Córdoba with a 42% win probability, reflecting their slightly superior xPoints at 5.5 compared to Almería's 5.1. This suggests Córdoba's possession game may allow them to dictate much of the play and potentially create more chances. However, Almería's strong physical presence and lower expected goals against (xGA) at 1.1 per match hint at a resilient defense capable of absorbing pressure and hitting on the counter.

With over 2.5 goals tipped at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, the numbers favor a scoreline with multiple goals. This aligns with Córdoba's higher xG and the likelihood of them conceding, given their xGA of 1.5. The most likely outcomes are 1-1 or a narrow victory for either side, with a 2-1 result for Córdoba as a plausible outcome if they can leverage their possession effectively.

Given the model's lean and Córdoba's xG edge, there might be potential in backing the home side to triumph in a closely contested affair.

Córdoba

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #18xT #4xP/match #13Points #19

Key players

Víctor Sánchez MoralesFxG 0.62 · xT -0.14
Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.31
Diego Pertejo CansecoFxG 0.45 · xT -0.06

Almería

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #14xP/match #15Points #13

Key players

Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Federico BoniniCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Miguel De La FuenteFxG 0.20 · xT -0.01

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Córdoba 42% · Draw 27% · Almería 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CórdobaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,40fair 7,99-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AlmeríaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,63fair 8,36-21 %

Miss

Match prediction: Córdoba – Almería

Predicted score matrix

Almería →

Córdoba →

0–05.2%

0–16.9%

0–25.4%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.4%

1–07.1%

1–111.4%

1–28.3%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.7%

2–18.5%

2–26.4%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.9%

3–14.3%

3–23.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,50

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.24

Over 2,558%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score28%
Daniel Requena Sánchez to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Córdoba42% probability@2.60PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
1 · Córdoba42% probability@2.45Bet365EV+2%reference odds
1 · Córdoba42% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Córdoba	X	2 · Almería
Bet365	EV+ 2% 2.45	3.40	2.63
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.45	3.35	2.55
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.45	3.35	2.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.45	3.35	2.55
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.60	3.57	2.69

Odds updated 12 Sept, 20:26

Odds movement

1+9 %

41 %36 %

2.38 → 2.60

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.53 → 3.57

2-6 %

37 %32 %

2.85 → 2.69

Over 2,5+3 %

60 %55 %

1.65 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Córdoba 0Draw 1Almería 3

Goals: 2–10 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Córdoba

Almería

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Córdoba (7–10)

Almería (6–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Córdoba

Almería

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Córdoba

Almería

The teams in numbers

Performance	Córdoba	Almería
Points	3	6
xPoints	5.5	5.1
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.2

Playing style	Córdoba	Almería
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.52	0.53
xT per match	1.2	0.71
xTA per match	0.86	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	26	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.31
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.74	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.75
Passes per match	321	450
Passes against per match	242	296
Switches of play per match	28	18.9
Long balls per match	33	27

Set pieces	Córdoba	Almería
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.26
Corners per match	4.5	4.9
Corners against per match	2.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.48

Other	Córdoba	Almería
Throw-in control	0.79	0.67

The goalkeepers	Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba)	Andres Fernandez (Almería)
Saves	7	7
Save %	70%	70%
xG prevented	30%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Córdoba

Fixtures, form & tips

Almería

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Córdoba vs Almería according to our model?

The model gives Córdoba a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Córdoba 42%, draw 27%, Almería 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.