Cádiz vs Las Palmas: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Segunda División13 September 202626°33 km/h

Läs på svenska

CádizBalanced & physical

Las PalmasPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Las Palmas (49%)

1 · Cádiz 27%X 24%49% Las Palmas · 2

27%

24%

49%

Analysis: Cádiz – Las Palmas

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

With Las Palmas grabbing attention, the numbers favor their controlled possession style to dominate. They hold a strong 49% probability of victory in this match against Cádiz. This confidence is rooted in their recent head-to-head success, winning both matchups since 2023. While it's a small sample size, it certainly nudges the scales.

Cádiz may seem like underdogs with just a 27% win probability, but they've been punching above their weight in terms of xPoints, where they edge Las Palmas (6.0 vs. 4.0). Despite collecting fewer actual points, this suggests they've been somewhat unlucky. Their robust defense, reflected in a lower xGA (0.96) compared to the visitors (1.1), could frustrate the opposition.

The expected goals tell a tale of slight Las Palmas superiority (1.51 vs. 1.07), hinting at their ability to carve out more quality chances. Yet, Cádiz's balanced and physical approach could stymie those efforts, making the most likely scorelines of 1-1 or 0-1 quite plausible. With the over 2.5 goals tipped at just 48%, a tight affair seems in the offing, though both sides finding the net has a slender majority.

For bettors seeking an edge, valuable odds of 2.65 on a Las Palmas victory with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a compelling 30% edge, according to the model's 49% win probability for the visitors. This value angle stands out in a matchup where Las Palmas' ability to control possession may ultimately tip the scales in their favor, despite Cádiz's defensive resilience.

Cádiz

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #20xP/match #5Points #18

Key players

Jose Antonio De La RosaRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
Javi CastroCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
Manuel Rivera DomínguezLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

Las Palmas

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #19xP/match #21Points #10

Key players

Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
Taisei MiyashiroRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Cádiz – Las Palmas

Predicted score matrix

Las Palmas →

Cádiz →

0–07.9%

0–111.1%

0–28.6%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.7%

1–112.6%

1–29.2%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.5%

2–04.3%

2–16.6%

2–25.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.5%

3–12.3%

3–21.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,07–1,51

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.79

Over 2,548%

@2.07

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Las Palmas to win49%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Las Palmas to win49%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score26%
Enzo Lilian Marin Loiodice to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.52PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas49% probability@2.45BetssonEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cádiz	X	2 · Las Palmas
Betsafe	2.72	3.15	EV+ 20% 2.45
Betsson	2.72	3.15	EV+ 20% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.72	3.15	EV+ 20% 2.45
Pinnacle	2.87	3.36	EV+ 23% 2.52

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Las Palmas win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.77 to 2.52 (−9%).

1+12 %

38 %33 %

2.57 → 2.87

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.31 → 3.36

2-9 %

39 %34 %

2.77 → 2.52

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.05 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cádiz 0Draw 0Las Palmas 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cádiz

Las Palmas

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cádiz (5–6)

Las Palmas (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Las Palmas

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Las Palmas

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cádiz	Las Palmas
Points	3	7
xPoints	6	4
xG per match	1.1	0.72
xGA per match	0.96	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.23

Playing style	Cádiz	Las Palmas
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.27
Field tilt	0.44	0.57
xT per match	0.56	0.65
xTA per match	0.59	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	22	19
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.16
Entries into the box per match	8	9
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.79
Passes per match	387	426
Passes against per match	385	350
Switches of play per match	21.8	20.5
Long balls per match	28	27

Set pieces	Cádiz	Las Palmas
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.3	2.8
Corners against per match	4.3	5.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.5

Other	Cádiz	Las Palmas
Throw-in control	0.6	0.68

The goalkeepers	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)	José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)
Saves	19	12
Save %	76%	67%
xG prevented	68%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cádiz

Fixtures, form & tips

Las Palmas

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cádiz vs Las Palmas according to our model?

The model gives Las Palmas a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 27%, draw 24%, Las Palmas 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.