Girona vs Castellon: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Segunda División13 September 202621°12 km/h

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GironaPossession & high press

CastellonPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Girona (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Castellon @ 3.37 (+18 %)

1 · Girona 39%X 26%35% Castellon · 2

39%

26%

35%

Analysis: Girona – Castellon

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The narrow 39% model probability for Girona sets the stage for a tightly contested matchup against Castellon, who have a close 35% chance of victory. Despite the minor statistical edge for the hosts, Castellon’s form and expected goals suggest they might have the upper hand. With 10 points compared to Girona's 7, the visitors have shown more consistent results. In terms of xG and xGA, Castellon again holds the advantage, boasting a higher xG per match of 1.9 and a lower xGA of 0.62, compared to Girona’s 1.3 and 1.2, respectively.

A small head-to-head sample limits its usefulness, making current form and expected goals more telling. The most likely scorelines indicate a close contest, with 1-1 at 13%, followed by 1-0 at 9% in favor of Girona. The slight edge towards a low-scoring outcome is reflected in the expected goals figures—1.39 for Girona and 1.32 for Castellon—alongside a lean toward under 2.5 goals, sitting at 49%.

The sharpest angle comes from the value odds offered on an away win. With Castellon rated by the model at a 35% win probability, backing them at 3.1 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet carries a 9% edge. Given their superior form and xG metrics, this angle is worth considering.

Girona

Form DLWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #14xT #3xP/match #8Points #5

Key players

Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Abel RuizFxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Bryan GilFxG 0.36 · xT -0.01

Castellon

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.61 · xT 0.04
Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Agustín SienraCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Girona – Castellon

Predicted score matrix

Castellon →

Girona →

0–07.0%

0–18.4%

0–25.8%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.9%

1–112.6%

1–28.0%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.5%

2–18.5%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.0%

3–13.9%

3–22.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,39–1,32

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.26EV+9%

Over 2,551%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Vladyslav Vanat to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Vladyslav Vanat to score33%
Diego Hernández Barriuso to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Castellon35% probability@3.37PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
2 · Castellon35% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Girona	X	2 · Castellon
Betsafe	2.08	3.40	EV+ 10% 3.15
Betsson	2.08	3.40	EV+ 10% 3.15
Nordicbet	2.08	3.40	EV+ 10% 3.15
Pinnacle	2.08	3.60	EV+ 18% 3.37

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

1-3 %

46 %41 %

2.15 → 2.08

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+4 %

32 %27 %

3.25 → 3.37

Over 2,5-4 %

59 %54 %

1.72 → 1.65

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Girona

Castellon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Girona (9–5)

Castellon (5–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Girona

Castellon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Girona

Castellon

The teams in numbers

Performance	Girona	Castellon
Points	7	10
xPoints	5.6	7.4
xG per match	1.3	1.9
xGA per match	1.2	0.62
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.21

Playing style	Girona	Castellon
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.55	0.73
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	0.89	0.66
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	18
Entries into the box against	10	9
Pass completion %	0.81	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.76
Passes per match	424	505
Passes against per match	385	270
Switches of play per match	28.7	22.6
Long balls per match	36	28

Set pieces	Girona	Castellon
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.03
Corners per match	4	5.8
Corners against per match	1.8	3.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.12	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.14	0.71

Other	Girona	Castellon
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)	Romain Matthys (Castellon)
Saves	11	6
Save %	69%	86%
xG prevented	47%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

Castellon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Girona vs Castellon according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Girona 39%, draw 26%, Castellon 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.