FC Andorra vs Real Sociedad B: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Segunda División13 September 202620°15 km/h

Läs på svenska

FC AndorraPossession & high press

Real Sociedad BLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · FC Andorra (61%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.76 (+2 %)

1 · FC Andorra 61%X 22%17% Real Sociedad B · 2

61%

22%

17%

Analysis: FC Andorra – Real Sociedad B

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA-check reveals issues: the playing style is misrepresented, and the betting odds are unsupported by the facts.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Three consecutive losses hang over FC Andorra, yet they enter the match against Real Sociedad B as clear statistical favorites with a 61% probability of victory. Despite this poor run, the numbers suggest resilience, as the hosts boast an expected goals tally of 1.97 compared to the visitors' 1.04. It's a clash of styles: Andorra's possession and high press versus Sociedad B's low defence and direct approach, setting the stage for a tactical battle that could tilt the balance.

The head-to-head history, though limited to just two matches, shows both encounters ending in favor of Real Sociedad B. While this might raise eyebrows, the small sample size diminishes its predictive power. Andorra's superior season metrics, such as 1.8 xG per match and a solid defense allowing only 0.71 xGA, indicate a stronger foundation compared to Sociedad B's 0.81 xG and 1.4 xGA.

Betting angles provide clarity. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 58% leans towards a high-scoring affair, but a 2-0 or 2-1 win for Andorra seems the sharpest call, reflecting the numerical edge despite recent struggles.

FC Andorra

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #2xP/match #4Points #17

Key players

Efe AkmanCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Stefan GolubovićFxG 1.02 · xT 0.11
Thomas CarriqueRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.25

Real Sociedad B

Form DLWDD

League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #16xP/match #20Points #14

Key players

Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
Gorka CarreraFxG 0.17 · xT 0.00
Lander AstiazaranLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: FC Andorra – Real Sociedad B

Predicted score matrix

Real Sociedad B →

FC Andorra →

0–05.2%

0–14.8%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.4%

1–110.4%

1–25.2%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.3%

3–16.5%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.9%

4+–15.1%

4+–22.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-010%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,97–1,04

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.11

Over 2,558%

@1.76EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

FC Andorra to win61%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

FC Andorra to win61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Lautaro de León Bouzada Billar to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Lautaro de León Bouzada Billar to score30%
Joan Oleaga Arregi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.558% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Andorra	X	2 · Real Sociedad B
Betsafe	1.55	3.95	5.10
Betsson	1.55	3.95	5.10
Nordicbet	1.55	3.95	5.10
Pinnacle	1.59	4.10	5.66

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.24 to 2.11 (−6%).

1+5 %

63 %58 %

1.51 → 1.59

X-6 %

25 %20 %

4.35 → 4.10

2-4 %

19 %14 %

5.88 → 5.66

Over 2,5+7 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

FC Andorra 0Draw 0Real Sociedad B 2

Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Andorra have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Andorra

Real Sociedad B

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Andorra (7–7)

Real Sociedad B (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Andorra

Real Sociedad B

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Andorra

Real Sociedad B

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Andorra	Real Sociedad B
Points	3	5
xPoints	6.5	4
xG per match	1.8	0.81
xGA per match	0.71	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.24

Playing style	FC Andorra	Real Sociedad B
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.85	0.37
xT per match	1.4	0.68
xTA per match	0.52	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	30	23
Pressing intensity	0.18	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.42	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.4	0.24
Entries into the box per match	16	11
Entries into the box against	6	11
Pass completion %	0.82	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.67
Passes per match	489	311
Passes against per match	191	398
Switches of play per match	53.1	25.6
Long balls per match	48	32

Set pieces	FC Andorra	Real Sociedad B
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	3.9	4.3
Corners against per match	2.4	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.64

Other	FC Andorra	Real Sociedad B
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra)	Aitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B)
Saves	6	12
Save %	75%	71%
xG prevented	55%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Andorra

Fixtures, form & tips

Real Sociedad B

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Andorra vs Real Sociedad B according to our model?

The model gives FC Andorra a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Andorra 61%, draw 22%, Real Sociedad B 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.