Segunda División18°14 km/h

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    Celta FortunaCelta FortunaCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–2
    CastellonCastellonPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Castellon (59%)

    Celta Fortuna – Castellon · Segunda División

    1 · Celta Fortuna 19%X 22%59% Castellon · 2

    Analysis: Celta Fortuna – Castellon

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Celta Fortuna's clash with Castellon is set to unfold with a distinct stylistic contrast. The hosts favor a counter-attacking approach, utilizing crosses to disrupt defensive lines. In contrast, Castellon's emphasis is on controlling possession, which often dictates the flow of the game. This tactical battle is likely to define the course of the match, with the visitors' possession game expected to tip the balance in their favor.

    Numbers back Castellon's superiority. The expected goals model assigns them a clear edge: 1.72 xG against Celta's 1.22. This aligns with their xG per match, which stands at 1.2 compared to the hosts' 0.93. Defensively, Castellon also holds the upper hand, with a significantly better xGA of 0.73 against Celta Fortuna's 1.6. These figures suggest that Castellon's possession-based style could prove decisive against a more vulnerable home defense.

    Castellon's form and expected metrics provide a stronger basis for analysis. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 1-2, 0-1—reflect a match likely to be close but lean towards an away victory. With Castellon favored at 59% to secure the win, supported by their xPoints advantage (2.8 to 2.4), the visitors should edge this contest. The over 2.5 goals probability at 56% also suggests potential scoring opportunities, albeit with Castellon controlling the narrative.

    For those eyeing betting opportunities, the away win offers value at odds of 1.78 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a model estimation of 59% suggesting a 4% edge, backing Castellon carries a calculated risk. As possession dictates the game, the visitors should capitalize, likely securing a 1-2 victory.

    Celta FortunaCelta Fortuna
    Form DW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #19xT #13xP/match #16Points #4
    Key players
    • Ángel Arcos CadillaLWxG 0.14 · xT -0.04
    • Andrés Antañón VieitesCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
    • Anxo Rodríguez ÁlvarezRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.00
    CastellonCastellon
    Form WDLWD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #3xP/match #11Points #7
    Key players
    • Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
    • Diego BarriCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
    • Alvaro MartinCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Celta Fortuna 19% · Draw 22% · Castellon 59%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - RC Celta de Vigo BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,21fair 12,95-13 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - CastellonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,96fair 6,57-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Celta Fortuna – Castellon

    Predicted score matrix

    Castellon →
    Celta Fortuna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–18.8%
    0–27.8%
    0–34.5%
    0–4+2.8%
    1
    1–06.1%
    1–111.4%
    1–29.5%
    1–35.5%
    1–4+3.5%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.8%
    2–25.8%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–01.6%
    3–12.8%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,72
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.24
    Over 2,556%
    @1.69

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Castellon to win59%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.51

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Castellon to win59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Ousmane Camara to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Ousmane Camara to score28%
    • Diego Hernández Barriuso to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Castellon59% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Castellon59% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Castellon59% probability@1.75BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Celta FortunaX2 · Castellon
    Betsafe4.003.60
    EV+ 2%
    1.75
    Betsson4.003.60
    EV+ 2%
    1.75
    Nordicbet4.003.60
    EV+ 2%
    1.75
    Pinnacle4.223.98
    EV+ 6%
    1.81

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 1.83 to 1.69 (−8%).

    1-7 %
    27 %17 %

    4.53 → 4.22

    X+5 %
    30 %20 %

    3.79 → 3.98

    2+4 %
    58 %48 %

    1.75 → 1.81

    Over 2,5-8 %
    59 %49 %

    1.83 → 1.69

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Celta Fortuna
    Castellon
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Celta Fortuna (4–2)
    Castellon (1–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Celta Fortuna
    Enrique Ribes Recaj: 88 passningar, xT 0.2RecajPablo González Meixús: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MeixúsAnxo Rodríguez Álvarez: 45 passningar, xT -0.01ÁlvarezHugo Burcio García: 43 passningar, xT 0.02GarcíaJorge Carrillo Balea: 43 passningar, xT 0.08BaleaJoel López Salguero: 40 passningar, xT 0.01SalgueroPablo Gavián Alonso: 40 passningar, xT 0.23AlonsoAndrés Antañón Vieites: 35 passningar, xT 0.03VieitesÁngel Arcos Cadilla: 34 passningar, xT -0.07CadillaFrank Germain Jonathan Miller: 23 passningar, xT 0.48MillerJan Oliveras Codina: 20 passningar, xT 0Codina
    Castellon
    Alberto Jimenez: 143 passningar, xT 0.18JimenezJérémy Mellot: 133 passningar, xT 0.44MellotDiego Barri: 118 passningar, xT 0.16BarriAlvaro Martin: 81 passningar, xT 0.4MartinJuan José Nieto Zarzoso: 80 passningar, xT 0.11ZarzosoRomain Matthys: 68 passningar, xT 0.05MatthysAgustín Sienra: 55 passningar, xT 0.02SienraLucas Alcazar Moreno: 49 passningar, xT 0.01MorenoRaul Sanchez: 49 passningar, xT 0.36SanchezMarc Olivier Doue: 37 passningar, xT 0.08DouePablo Santiago: 34 passningar, xT 0.15Santiago
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Celta Fortuna
    Enrique Ribes Recaj: 88 passningar, xT 0.2RecajPablo González Meixús: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MeixúsAnxo Rodríguez Álvarez: 45 passningar, xT -0.01ÁlvarezHugo Burcio García: 43 passningar, xT 0.02GarcíaJorge Carrillo Balea: 43 passningar, xT 0.08BaleaJoel López Salguero: 40 passningar, xT 0.01SalgueroPablo Gavián Alonso: 40 passningar, xT 0.23AlonsoAndrés Antañón Vieites: 35 passningar, xT 0.03VieitesÁngel Arcos Cadilla: 34 passningar, xT -0.07CadillaFrank Germain Jonathan Miller: 23 passningar, xT 0.48MillerJan Oliveras Codina: 20 passningar, xT 0Codina
    Castellon
    Alberto Jimenez: 143 passningar, xT 0.18JimenezJérémy Mellot: 133 passningar, xT 0.44MellotDiego Barri: 118 passningar, xT 0.16BarriAlvaro Martin: 81 passningar, xT 0.4MartinJuan José Nieto Zarzoso: 80 passningar, xT 0.11ZarzosoRomain Matthys: 68 passningar, xT 0.05MatthysAgustín Sienra: 55 passningar, xT 0.02SienraLucas Alcazar Moreno: 49 passningar, xT 0.01MorenoRaul Sanchez: 49 passningar, xT 0.36SanchezMarc Olivier Doue: 37 passningar, xT 0.08DouePablo Santiago: 34 passningar, xT 0.15Santiago

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCelta FortunaCastellon
    Points44
    xPoints2.42.8
    xG per match0.931.2
    xGA per match1.60.73
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.3
    Playing styleCelta FortunaCastellon
    Build-up efficiency0.110.32
    Field tilt0.370.75
    xT per match0.721.4
    xTA per match0.970.83
    Won balls, offensive half2521
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.240.4
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.31
    Entries into the box per match713
    Entries into the box against910
    Pass completion %0.720.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.78
    Passes per match271485
    Passes against per match447224
    Switches of play per match18.724
    Long balls per match3230
    Set piecesCelta FortunaCastellon
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match36.6
    Corners against per match4.94.1
    xG per corner0.090.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.670.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.62
    OtherCelta FortunaCastellon
    Throw-in control0.640.73
    The goalkeepersJorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna)Alberto Jimenez (Castellon)
    Saves74
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Celta Fortuna
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Castellon
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Celta Fortuna vs Castellon according to our model?

    The model gives Castellon a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Fortuna 19%, draw 22%, Castellon 59%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.