Rosengård vs Utsikten: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan16 August 2026 16:00 CEST

Läs på svenska

RosengårdPossession & high press

1–1

UtsiktenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Rosengård (70%)Best value by the model: 2 · Utsikten @ 9.70 (+28 %)

1 · Rosengård 70%X 16%13% Utsikten · 2

70%

16%

13%

Analysis: Rosengård – Utsikten

Oscar Nilsson · 15 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Five points separate Rosengård 1917 and Utsikten in the standings, with Rosengård 1917 holding the distinct advantage. However, despite their superiority in numbers, Rosengård 1917 carries a seven-game losing streak into this match, a stark contrast to their superior xG and xGA metrics. Rosengård pairs a possession-oriented style with a high press, a tactical approach that should theoretically create scoring opportunities. Utsikten, meanwhile, relies on counter-attacking and crossing, a strategy that has failed to yield results, as reflected in their meager five points.

Rosengård 1917's expected goals tally of 1.5 per match dwarfs Utsikten's 0.96, and their expected goals against per game is half that of Utsikten's 2.1. Yet, football's beauty lies in its unpredictability: Rosengård's ongoing losing streak is a testament to this. The models still heavily favor them with a 70% chance of winning, while the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 suggest a tight but clear edge over Utsikten.

Weather conditions aren't expected to play a significant role, keeping the focus on the tactical dynamics. With a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals, and a 56% chance both teams find the net, goals seem probable. Rosengård 1917 should break their slump by exploiting Utsikten's defensive frailties, perhaps even achieving a 2-0 victory.

For value seekers, the real intrigue is in the betting market. Despite Utsikten's low probability of victory, the EV+ options at 9.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a speculative opportunity. Priced at odds that far exceed the model's 13% rating, there's a tangible edge for the audacious punter willing to bet against the odds in the hope that Rosengård 1917's losing streak continues. While the smart money stays with Rosengård 1917, sometimes the best bets lie in the unlikely.

Rosengård

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #7xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.41 · xT 0.36

Utsikten

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #31xGA #32xT #24xP/match #31Points #32

Key players

Melvin KoliqiFxG 0.23 · xT 0.21
Pontus OlssonRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.29
Enzo AndrénLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.13

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rosengård 70% · Draw 16% · Utsikten 13%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC RosengårdBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,12fair 3,76-17 %

Miss

Match prediction: Rosengård – Utsikten

Predicted score matrix

Utsikten →

Rosengård →

0–03.3%

0–12.7%

0–21.4%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–07.6%

1–17.6%

1–23.5%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–09.9%

2–19.3%

2–24.4%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.4%

3–17.9%

3–23.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.3%

4+–09.8%

4+–19.2%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-19%
3.3-08%
4.3-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

2,54–0,94

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@2.92

Over 2,568%

@1.36

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rosengård to win70%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rosengård to win70%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Alexander Robért to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Alexander Robért to score30%
Felix Wennergrund to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Utsikten13% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
2 · Utsikten13% probability@9.70BetssonEV+28%reference odds
2 · Utsikten13% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+28%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rosengård	X	2 · Utsikten
Betsafe	1.19	6.10	EV+ 28% 9.70
Betsson	1.19	6.10	EV+ 28% 9.70
Nordicbet	1.19	6.10	EV+ 28% 9.70

Odds updated 15 Aug, 22:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 13 August — the odds have shortened from 1.45 to 1.36 (−6%).

1-2 %

78 %73 %

1.22 → 1.19

X+10 %

18 %13 %

5.55 → 6.10

2-12 %

12 %7 %

11.00 → 9.70

Over 2,5-6 %

69 %64 %

1.45 → 1.36

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Rosengård 1917 have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rosengård

Utsikten

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Utsikten (12–43)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Utsikten

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Utsikten

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rosengård	Utsikten
Points	26	5
xPoints	25	13.9
xG per match	1.5	0.96
xGA per match	1	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.45

Playing style	Rosengård	Utsikten
Build-up efficiency	0.39	0.36
Field tilt	0.66	0.47
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	34	31
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.47
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	11
Entries into the box against	10	17
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.69
Passes per match	387	318
Passes against per match	341	435
Switches of play per match	16.3	15.3
Long balls per match	30	29

Set pieces	Rosengård	Utsikten
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.09
Corners per match	6.2	4.3
Corners against per match	2.9	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.62

Other	Rosengård	Utsikten
Throw-in control	0.54	0.59

The goalkeepers	Rosengård	Linus Dahlgren (Utsikten)
Saves	–	37
Save %	–	66%
xG prevented	–	52%
Claims	–	44 (82%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rosengård

Fixtures, form & tips

Utsikten

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rosengård vs Utsikten according to our model?

The model gives Rosengård a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosengård 70%, draw 16%, Utsikten 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.