IFK Värnamo vs Sandviken Prediction: Away win 39% (24 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan24 October 2026 13:00 CESTFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo9°2,2 mm20 km/h

Läs på svenska

IFK VärnamoPossession control

SandvikenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sandviken (39%)Soft draw

1 · IFK Värnamo 37%X 23%39% Sandviken · 2

37%

23%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for IFK Värnamo vs Sandviken (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): IFK Värnamo win 37%, draw 23%, Sandviken win 39%. Expected goals (xG): IFK Värnamo 1.51, Sandviken 1.41. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: IFK Värnamo or draw 61%, Sandviken or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Sandviken

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The single head-to-head clash between IFK Värnamo and Sandviken since 2024, a solitary win for Värnamo, offers little insight into their upcoming matchup. Instead, the spotlight falls on current form and expected goals, where Sandviken holds a noticeable edge. With the visitors' xG per match at 1.5 compared to the hosts' 1.1, Sandviken's offensive potential looms large, despite Värnamo's commendable streak of scoring in 11 straight league games.

Värnamo's possession control approach faces a stern test against Sandviken's high press. The visitors have demonstrated a capacity to convert pressing into scoring opportunities, evidenced by their superior xG and slight lead in both actual points and xPoints this season. Moreover, Värnamo's defense, conceding an average of 1.3 xGA per match, will need to be on high alert to withstand Sandviken's attacking prowess.

In considering the likely scorelines, a 1-1 draw surfaces as the most probable outcome, yet the balance tips toward Sandviken, with the model assigning them a 39% chance of victory. The expectation of goals is bolstered by the 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood that both teams find the net, a scenario that should not be overly disrupted by the forecasted rain, already accounted for in the model.

The sharpest betting angle lies with Sandviken as the clear value play. Offered at odds of 3.51 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, the model suggests a juicy 38% edge. Despite the slight statistical odds, the potential return makes backing the visitors a compelling prospect for those seeking value in this clash of styles.

IFK Värnamo

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #13xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.41
Douglas BergqvistCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Viktor ClaessonCMxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Sandviken

Form LDWLD

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Adam KianiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
Linus TagessonRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.25
Valassina Solo DiomandeLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Sandviken

Predicted score matrix

Sandviken →

IFK Värnamo →

0–05.7%

0–17.3%

0–25.4%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.8%

1–111.8%

1–28.1%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.1%

2–18.7%

2–26.1%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.1%

3–14.3%

3–23.1%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,51–1,41

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.30EV+2%

Over 2,556%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sandviken or draw (X2)61%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sandviken or draw (X2)61%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Johan Arvidsson to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Viktor Claesson to score24%
Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sandviken39% probability@3.44BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
2 · Sandviken39% probability@3.44NordicbetEV+35%reference odds
2 · Sandviken39% probability@3.30LeoVegasEV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Värnamo	X	2 · Sandviken
Betsafe	2.01	3.62	EV+ 35% 3.44
LeoVegas	2.00	3.55	EV+ 30% 3.30
Nordicbet	2.01	3.62	EV+ 35% 3.44

Odds updated 21 Oct, 16:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 2.00

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.55

2+3 %

30 %25 %

3.20 → 3.30

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Värnamo 1Draw 0Sandviken 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Värnamo have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Värnamo

Sandviken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Värnamo (35–47)

Sandviken (43–38)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Sandviken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Sandviken

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Värnamo	Sandviken
Points	32	35
xPoints	32.3	37
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.27

Playing style	IFK Värnamo	Sandviken
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.6
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	33	29
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	16
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.78
Passes per match	388	500
Passes against per match	388	342
Switches of play per match	15.2	14.2
Long balls per match	32	30

Set pieces	IFK Värnamo	Sandviken
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	5.1	4.7
Corners against per match	5.2	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.64

Other	IFK Värnamo	Sandviken
Throw-in control	0.48	0.62

The goalkeepers	Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)	Otto Lindell (Sandviken)
Saves	89	57
Save %	69%	70%
xG prevented	50%	48%
Claims	144 (89%)	103 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Värnamo

Fixtures, form & tips

Sandviken

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Sandviken according to our model?

The model gives Sandviken a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 37%, draw 23%, Sandviken 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in IFK Värnamo vs Sandviken?

The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for IFK Värnamo and 1.41 for Sandviken, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

IFK Värnamo or draw (1X) 61%, Sandviken or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.