Brage vs Öster Prediction: Home win 40% (24 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan24 October 2026 17:00 CESTDomnarvsvallen, Borlänge8°3,2 mm19 km/h

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BragePossession control

ÖsterCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Brage (40%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.65 (+6 %)

1 · Brage 40%X 27%34% Öster · 2

40%

27%

34%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Brage vs Öster (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Brage win 40%, draw 27%, Öster win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Brage 1.65, Öster 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Brage or draw 66%, Öster or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Brage – Öster

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Brage holds a slight edge in their recent head-to-head encounters against Öster, with two wins in three matches. While this sample is limited, it does set a tone of competitiveness. Yet, the broader picture reveals a different story, as Öster boasts a more substantial points tally this season, sitting at 39 compared to Brage's 26. This discrepancy suggests a challenge for the hosts despite their previous head-to-head success.

However, digging deeper into the underlying numbers, Brage emerges as a team playing below its potential. Their expected points (xPoints) of 37.0 significantly outshine their actual haul, hinting at an underachievement that could course-correct in their favor. In contrast, Öster seems to be overperforming, with fewer expected points (32.2) than they have accumulated. The expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics also align with this narrative, favoring Brage on both fronts.

The match leans towards Brage, but the probabilities and expected goals suggest a tight contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1, followed closely by a narrow 2-1 victory for Brage. Despite Öster's inclination towards counter-attacks and crosses, Brage's possession control might stifle their efforts, especially given Öster's higher xGA, which suggests vulnerabilities in defense.

For bettors, there's a compelling angle with the under 3.5 goals market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer this at odds of 1.65, with the model backing it at a 64% probability, yielding a 6% edge. Given the expected tactical battle and Brage's strong defensive metrics, this bet presents a calculated opportunity.

Brage

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #10Points #14

Key players

Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.64
Malte PerssonLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.37
Mass Modou SiseFxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Öster

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #11xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

Dennis OlssonLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.50
Daniel AskCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.25
Tatu VarmanenRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Brage – Öster

Predicted score matrix

Öster →

Brage →

0–05.2%

0–16.4%

0–24.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.7%

1–111.4%

1–27.6%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.1%

2–26.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.6%

3–15.0%

3–23.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.2%

4+–13.0%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,65–1,37

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.52EV+6%

Over 2,558%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Brage or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Brage or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Lasse Bruun Madsen to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Matias Tamminen to score29%
Ozor Victor Okeke to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.564% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 3.564% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brage	X	2 · Öster
Betsafe	2.16	EV+ 0% 3.74	EV+ 1% 3.00
LeoVegas	2.12	3.65	2.90
Nordicbet	2.16	EV+ 0% 3.74	EV+ 1% 3.00

Odds updated 22 Oct, 03:37

Odds movement

1-6 %

50 %40 %

2.25 → 2.12

X+7 %

31 %21 %

3.40 → 3.65

2+2 %

34 %24 %

2.85 → 2.90

LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Brage 2Draw 0Öster 1

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brage

Öster

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brage (41–50)

Öster (41–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brage

Öster

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brage

Öster

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brage	Öster
Points	26	39
xPoints	37	32.2
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.32

Playing style	Brage	Öster
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.44	0.45
xT per match	1.5	1.4
xTA per match	1.6	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	31	28
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	17	20
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.74
Passes per match	331	383
Passes against per match	381	387
Switches of play per match	19.5	14.4
Long balls per match	34	29

Set pieces	Brage	Öster
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.2
Corners per match	4.7	4.9
Corners against per match	6.1	6.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.57

Other	Brage	Öster
Throw-in control	0.56	0.56

The goalkeepers	Viktor Frodig (Brage)	Carl Lundahl Persson (Öster)
Saves	73	114
Save %	64%	76%
xG prevented	45%	54%
Claims	161 (96%)	156 (87%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brage

Fixtures, form & tips

Öster

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brage vs Öster according to our model?

The model gives Brage a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brage 40%, draw 27%, Öster 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Brage vs Öster?

The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Brage and 1.37 for Öster, 3.02 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Brage or draw (1X) 66%, Öster or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.