01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Östersund to win57%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Swedish SuperettanJämtkraft Arena, Östersund6°6,2 mm21 km/h
Läs på svenska
ÖstersundPossession & high pressvs
Nordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Östersund (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Nordic United @ 5.84 (+15 %)
Östersund vs Nordic United · Swedish Superettan
1 · Östersund 57%X 23%20% Nordic United · 2
57%
23%
20%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Östersund vs Nordic United (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Östersund win 57%, draw 23%, Nordic United win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Östersund 1.71, Nordic United 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Östersund or draw 80%, Nordic United or draw 43%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Östersund – Nordic United
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Östersund's impressive 14-match unbeaten streak looms large as they prepare to host Nordic United. Despite the home side's strong form, the model assigns them only a 57% chance of victory, hinting at a more competitive clash than the table might suggest. With both teams expected to score nearly a goal each, and rain potentially dampening attacking endeavors, a low-scoring affair is on the cards.
The expected goals (xG) numbers show a nuanced battle. Östersund's 1.71 xG suggests a slight edge in offensive threat, but Nordic United's counter-attacking prowess averaged 1.4 xG throughout the season, implying they can exploit any lapses in the hosts' defense. Nevertheless, Östersund's stout defense, allowing just 0.97 xGA per match, strengthens their case for a clean sheet.
A solitary head-to-head encounter between these teams, ending in a draw, provides little predictive value. Instead, the tactical clash of possession versus counter-attack, coupled with the elements, suggests a tight match. With an even 50% chance for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, the statistical narrative leans towards a cautious 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts.
Despite Östersund's apparent upper hand, there's significant betting value on an away win. With Betsafe and Nordicbet offering odds of 5.84 for a 15% edge, and LeoVegas slightly lower at 5.6 for an 11% edge, the model's 20% likelihood for an upset stands out across all three bookmakers. While not a guarantee, punters might find a calculated risk in backing Nordic United at these odds, capitalizing on potential volatility in a damp, tightly contested match-up.
ÖstersundForm DWDDD
League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #2xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Sunday AnyanwuCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Dennis WidgrenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.41
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
Nordic UnitedForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #3xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Aziz HarabiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.34
- Elias AnderssonCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.54
- Matteus BehnanCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Östersund – Nordic United
Predicted score matrix
Nordic United →
Östersund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–16.3%
0–23.1%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.7%
1–111.7%
1–25.4%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.7%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.9%
3–15.6%
3–22.6%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–13.5%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,71–0,95
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.08EV+5%
Over 2,550%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Östersund to win57%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Amar Begic to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Amar Begic to score27%
- Jonathan Gürsac to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Nordic United20% probability@5.84BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- 2 · Nordic United20% probability@5.84NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
- 2 · Nordic United20% probability@5.60LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Östersund | X | 2 · Nordic United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.52 | 4.23 | EV+ 15% 5.84 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 4.10 | EV+ 11% 5.60 |
| Nordicbet | 1.52 | 4.23 | EV+ 15% 5.84 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 09:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Östersund win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.50 (−13%).
1-13 %
62 %52 %
1.72 → 1.50
X+11 %
29 %19 %
3.70 → 4.10
2+37 %
24 %14 %
4.10 → 5.60
LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesÖstersund 0Draw 1Nordic United 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Östersund
Nordic United
Östersund (34–25)
Nordic United (40–43)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Östersund
Nordic United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Östersund
Nordic United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Östersund | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45 | 39 |
| xPoints | 37.9 | 37.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Östersund | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 38 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 457 | 380 |
| Passes against per match | 341 | 404 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 16.8 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Östersund | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| Other | Östersund | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| The goalkeepers | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) | William Eskelinen (Nordic United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 36 |
| Save % | 64% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 42% |
| Claims | 77 (90%) | 86 (95%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Östersund vs Nordic United according to our model?
The model gives Östersund a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Östersund 57%, draw 23%, Nordic United 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Östersund vs Nordic United?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Östersund and 0.95 for Nordic United, 2.66 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Östersund or draw (1X) 80%, Nordic United or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.