Norrby vs IFK Norrköping Prediction: Away win 60% (25 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan25 October 2026 13:00 CETBorås Arena, Borås8°19,5 mm32 km/h

Läs på svenska

NorrbyCounter-attacks & crosses

IFK NorrköpingPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · IFK Norrköping (60%)

1 · Norrby 19%X 21%60% IFK Norrköping · 2

19%

21%

60%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Norrby vs IFK Norrköping (Swedish Superettan, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Norrby win 19%, draw 21%, IFK Norrköping win 60%. Expected goals (xG): Norrby 1.18, IFK Norrköping 1.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Norrby or draw 40%, IFK Norrköping or draw 81%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Norrby – IFK Norrköping

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A solitary head-to-head encounter since 2024 saw Norrby edge out IFK Norrköping, yet this lone result holds little weight against the backdrop of current form and underlying numbers. The visitors, riding an impressive 12-match unbeaten streak in the league, travel with confidence. They have dominated the Superettan not just through results but also through a possession-heavy style that applies a relentless high press. This contrasts sharply with the hosts' approach, relying on counter-attacks and crosses, which may falter against high-quality opposition.

Despite Norrby's meager triumph over Norrköping in their sole recent match, the numbers strongly tilt towards the visitors. With model probabilities giving a 60% win chance to Norrköping, their superior expected goals (1.99) and expected points (44.3) further underline their dominance. The visitors' defense, allowing just 0.99 xGA per match, seems well-equipped to handle Norrby's offensive strategies, which average a modest 1.3 xG per game.

Weather conditions, including over 7 mm of rain, could potentially dampen the flow of goals. However, with a 61% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams finding the net, the outlook remains positive for a dynamic match. Expect Norrby to capitalize on set-piece opportunities and swift counters while Norrköping look to control the tempo with possession.

From a betting perspective, value emerges with Unibet offering odds of 2.10 on over 2.5 goals, reflecting the market's underestimation of the model's 61% probability. Given the statistics and playing styles, a likely scoreline falls around a 1-2 or 0-2 victory for the visitors. The tactical mismatch and recent form favor Norrköping, making their win an attractive outcome.

Norrby

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #12xP/match #3Points #13

Key players

Ture SpendlerLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.39
Joel HjalmarCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.21
Julius JohanssonFxG 0.20 · xT 0.17

IFK Norrköping

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Anton ErikssonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Noel SerneliusCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.28
Ryan NelsonRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.32

Match prediction: Norrby – IFK Norrköping

Predicted score matrix

IFK Norrköping →

Norrby →

0–04.5%

0–18.1%

0–28.4%

0–35.5%

0–4+4.3%

1–04.7%

1–110.2%

1–29.8%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.1%

2–02.9%

2–15.8%

2–25.8%

2–33.8%

2–4+3.0%

3–01.1%

3–12.3%

3–22.3%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,18–1,99

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.32

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IFK Norrköping to win60%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IFK Norrköping to win60%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Christoffer Nyman to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Christoffer Nyman to score28%
Charlie Axede to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · IFK Norrköping60% probability@1.89BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · IFK Norrköping60% probability@1.89NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
2 · IFK Norrköping60% probability@1.85LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Norrby	X	2 · IFK Norrköping
Betsafe	3.67	3.84	EV+ 13% 1.89
LeoVegas	3.60	3.80	EV+ 11% 1.85
Nordicbet	3.67	3.84	EV+ 13% 1.89

Odds updated 22 Oct, 03:37

Odds movement

1+7 %

29 %24 %

3.35 → 3.60

X-6 %

26 %21 %

4.05 → 3.80

2+3 %

53 %48 %

1.80 → 1.85

Over 2,5+1 %

62 %57 %

1.52 → 1.53

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Norrby 1Draw 0IFK Norrköping 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Norrby

IFK Norrköping

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Norrby (31–37)

IFK Norrköping (52–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Norrby

IFK Norrköping

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Norrby

IFK Norrköping

The teams in numbers

Performance	Norrby	IFK Norrköping
Points	27	58
xPoints	39.9	44.3
xG per match	1.3	1.9
xGA per match	1.4	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.24

Playing style	Norrby	IFK Norrköping
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.33
Field tilt	0.39	0.63
xT per match	1.4	1.7
xTA per match	1.7	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	32	38
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	17
Entries into the box against	17	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.75
Passes per match	301	445
Passes against per match	451	320
Switches of play per match	19.3	15.8
Long balls per match	32	34

Set pieces	Norrby	IFK Norrköping
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.2
Corners per match	5.4	5.6
Corners against per match	5.7	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.55

Other	Norrby	IFK Norrköping
Throw-in control	0.45	0.63

The goalkeepers	Sebastian Banozic (Norrby)	Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping)
Saves	83	77
Save %	69%	85%
xG prevented	54%	69%
Claims	168 (92%)	143 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Norrby

Fixtures, form & tips

IFK Norrköping

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Norrby vs IFK Norrköping according to our model?

The model gives IFK Norrköping a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norrby 19%, draw 21%, IFK Norrköping 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Norrby vs IFK Norrköping?

The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Norrby and 1.99 for IFK Norrköping, 3.16 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Norrby or draw (1X) 40%, IFK Norrköping or draw (X2) 81% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.