Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction: Home win 65% (23 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan23 October 2026 19:00 CESTRimnersvallen, Uddevalla9°0,3 mm12 km/h

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OddevoldLow block & direct

GIF SundsvallLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Oddevold (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · GIF Sundsvall @ 7.54 (+11 %)

1 · Oddevold 65%X 21%15% GIF Sundsvall · 2

65%

21%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall (Swedish Superettan, Friday, 23 October 2026): Oddevold win 65%, draw 21%, GIF Sundsvall win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Oddevold 2.24, GIF Sundsvall 0.91. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Oddevold or draw 85%, GIF Sundsvall or draw 35%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Oddevold – GIF Sundsvall

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: With a hefty 65% win probability, Oddevold enters the clash with GIF Sundsvall as the clear favorite. The home side's low-defence, direct style is expected to assert control. The numbers suggest a likely outcome of a 2-0 or 2-1 victory for the hosts, backed by expected goals of 2.24 for Oddevold versus 0.91 for Sundsvall. With both teams employing a low defense, Sundsvall's struggles are evident in their 19 points compared to Oddevold's 39, a margin that tells the tale of contrasting campaigns.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample size of five matches, leans toward the home side with three wins to two. However, this historical edge must not overshadow the more compelling current form and xG statistics. Oddevold's average xG of 1.4 sharply outpaces Sundsvall's 0.95, reflecting their superior attacking threat this season.

The model leans towards an over 2.5 goals outcome at 61%, but both teams to score sit at a moderately lower 53%. This suggests that while goals are expected, they may predominantly come from Oddevold's end. Sundsvall, with their 1.6 xGA per match, are likely to concede multiple times against a potent Oddevold attack.

For value hunters, Sundsvall's long odds of 7.21 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet present a tempting EV+ proposition, rated at a 6% edge over the implied 15% chance. While such plays are speculative, they might appeal to those willing to stake a lower percentage on improbable outcomes. The draw at Betsafe also carries marginal value. However, in the realm of likely outcomes, a home win remains the safest play.

Oddevold

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #5xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Alexander AlmqvistLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Oscar Iglicar BerntssonLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.18
Jesper Merbom AdolfssonCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.44

GIF Sundsvall

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #16xP/match #12Points #16

Key players

Elvis HanssonRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
Hugo AvianderCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
Suwaibou KebbehFxG 0.32 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Oddevold – GIF Sundsvall

Predicted score matrix

GIF Sundsvall →

Oddevold →

0–04.6%

0–13.6%

0–21.8%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.4%

1–19.0%

1–24.0%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.8%

2–19.8%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.1%

3–17.3%

3–23.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.6%

4+–16.9%

4+–23.1%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,24–0,91

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.38

Over 2,561%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Oddevold to win65%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Oddevold to win65%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%
Hugo Aviander to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · GIF Sundsvall15% probability@7.54PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
X · Draw21% probability@5.27PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · GIF Sundsvall15% probability@7.21BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oddevold	X	2 · GIF Sundsvall
Betsafe	1.39	EV+ 1% 4.88	EV+ 6% 7.21
LeoVegas	1.38	EV+ 1% 4.90	EV+ 3% 7.00
Nordicbet	1.39	EV+ 1% 4.88	EV+ 6% 7.21
Pinnacle	1.33	EV+ 9% 5.27	EV+ 11% 7.54

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Oddevold 3Draw 0GIF Sundsvall 2

Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oddevold

GIF Sundsvall

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oddevold (41–37)

GIF Sundsvall (19–58)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oddevold

GIF Sundsvall

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oddevold

GIF Sundsvall

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oddevold	GIF Sundsvall
Points	39	19
xPoints	44.3	34.1
xG per match	1.4	0.95
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.29

Playing style	Oddevold	GIF Sundsvall
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.3
Field tilt	0.45	0.36
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	40	28
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.69
Passes per match	333	308
Passes against per match	451	482
Switches of play per match	16.1	16.2
Long balls per match	29	29

Set pieces	Oddevold	GIF Sundsvall
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.06
Corners per match	5.7	4.3
Corners against per match	4.2	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.58

Other	Oddevold	GIF Sundsvall
Throw-in control	0.45	0.58

The goalkeepers	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)	Jonas Olsson (GIF Sundsvall)
Saves	74	110
Save %	69%	67%
xG prevented	49%	44%
Claims	164 (93%)	155 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oddevold

Fixtures, form & tips

GIF Sundsvall

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall according to our model?

The model gives Oddevold a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oddevold 65%, draw 21%, GIF Sundsvall 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?

The model expects 2.24 goals (xG) for Oddevold and 0.91 for GIF Sundsvall, 3.14 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Oddevold or draw (1X) 85%, GIF Sundsvall or draw (X2) 35% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.