Helsingborgs IF vs Ljungskile Prediction: Away win 42% (25 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan25 October 2026 15:00 CETOlympia, Helsingborg10°14,2 mm52 km/h

Läs på svenska

Helsingborgs IFPossession control

LjungskilePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ljungskile (42%)

1 · Helsingborgs IF 33%X 25%42% Ljungskile · 2

33%

25%

42%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Helsingborgs IF vs Ljungskile (Swedish Superettan, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Helsingborgs IF win 33%, draw 25%, Ljungskile win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Helsingborgs IF 1.46, Ljungskile 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Helsingborgs IF or draw 58%, Ljungskile or draw 67%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Helsingborgs IF – Ljungskile

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Ljungskile's narrow victory over Helsingborgs earlier this season gives them a slight psychological edge, though it's a small sample size that barely dents the broader narrative of form and expected goals. The visitors hold a slender lead in the points tally and boast a more pronounced advantage in xPoints, suggesting they have been somewhat unfortunate not to be more comfortably ahead in the standings. Meanwhile, both sides favor a possession-oriented game, which could lead to a tactical chess match.

Helsingborgs, hosting this fixture, have been steady if unspectacular. Their 1.46 expected goals per game are solid, but not show-stopping. Ljungskile, on the other hand, are slightly more potent in attack with an xG of 1.4 per match, coupled with an equivalent defensive record to their hosts at 1.4 xGA. This parity in defense indicates a potential for a cagey affair, though the model does lend a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 54%.

The weather forecast predicts rain, which can often dampen the goal-scoring prospects, but this is already factored into the model's numbers. With the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw (12%), closely followed by a 2-1 result (9%), there is a nod towards a competitive and possibly tight scoreboard.

For bettors looking to capitalize on value, the smart money appears to be backing Ljungskile to win away at odds of 2.85 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, both offering a 19% edge over the model's 42% probability. LeoVegas trails slightly with a 14% edge at 2.75 odds. The visitors' form and xG supremacy, coupled with favorable betting odds, make them an attractive proposition for those seeking an edge.

Helsingborgs IF

Form WLDLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #7xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Max SvenssonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.51
Lukas KjellnäsCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Alvin NordinCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.25

Ljungskile

Form WLLDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Filip AmbrozCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.32
Abdishakur Bashir OmarLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.21
Emilio ReljanovicRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Helsingborgs IF – Ljungskile

Predicted score matrix

Ljungskile →

Helsingborgs IF →

0–06.2%

0–17.7%

0–25.5%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.3%

1–112.1%

1–28.1%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.3%

2–18.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.1%

3–14.2%

3–22.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,46–1,37

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.22EV+3%

Over 2,554%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ljungskile or draw (X2)61%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ljungskile or draw (X2)61%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Lukas Lindholm Corner to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Lukas Lindholm Corner to score22%
Daouda Amadou to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ljungskile42% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
2 · Ljungskile42% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
2 · Ljungskile42% probability@2.75LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Helsingborgs IF	X	2 · Ljungskile
Betsafe	2.33	3.54	EV+ 19% 2.85
LeoVegas	2.30	3.50	EV+ 14% 2.75
Nordicbet	2.33	3.54	EV+ 19% 2.85

Odds updated 22 Oct, 03:37

Odds movement

10 %

43 %38 %

2.30 → 2.30

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.50

20 %

36 %31 %

2.75 → 2.75

Over 2,5+3 %

62 %57 %

1.52 → 1.57

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Helsingborgs IF 0Draw 0Ljungskile 1

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Helsingborgs IF

Ljungskile

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Helsingborgs IF (36–47)

Ljungskile (36–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Ljungskile

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Ljungskile

The teams in numbers

Performance	Helsingborgs IF	Ljungskile
Points	31	32
xPoints	29	37.7
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.29

Playing style	Helsingborgs IF	Ljungskile
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.36
Field tilt	0.53	0.47
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.4	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	33	32
Pressing intensity	0.53	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.29
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	406	333
Passes against per match	361	355
Switches of play per match	14.3	19.3
Long balls per match	27	36

Set pieces	Helsingborgs IF	Ljungskile
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.16
Corners per match	5.5	5.5
Corners against per match	5	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.62

Other	Helsingborgs IF	Ljungskile
Throw-in control	0.54	0.54

The goalkeepers	Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)	Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile)
Saves	78	94
Save %	68%	72%
xG prevented	45%	55%
Claims	148 (93%)	170 (96%)

Teams & more matches this round

Helsingborgs IF

Fixtures, form & tips

Ljungskile

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Helsingborgs IF vs Ljungskile according to our model?

The model gives Ljungskile a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helsingborgs IF 33%, draw 25%, Ljungskile 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Helsingborgs IF vs Ljungskile?

The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Helsingborgs IF and 1.37 for Ljungskile, 2.83 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Helsingborgs IF or draw (1X) 58%, Ljungskile or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.