Örebro SK vs Falkenberg Prediction: Away win 46% (26 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan26 October 2026 19:05 CETBehrn Arena, Örebro10°34 km/h

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Örebro SKPossession control

FalkenbergPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Falkenberg (46%)

1 · Örebro SK 30%X 24%46% Falkenberg · 2

30%

24%

46%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Örebro SK vs Falkenberg (Swedish Superettan, Monday, 26 October 2026): Örebro SK win 30%, draw 24%, Falkenberg win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Örebro SK 1.33, Falkenberg 1.64. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Örebro SK or draw 54%, Falkenberg or draw 70%. Prediction updated Monday, 19 October 2026.

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Analysis: Örebro SK – Falkenberg

Oscar Nilsson · 19 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT CONTAINS UNSUPPORTED CLAIMS: The betting odds of 2.30 for Falkenberg are not present in the FACTS and should be removed.

Falkenberg's recent form is their trump card as they prepare to face Örebro tomorrow. The visitors arrive unbeaten in their last five league outings, suggesting a team in harmony and backed by the model's probability giving them a 46% chance of victory. That's a significant lean, especially against a home side like Örebro, who have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Falkenberg not only have more points but also lead in expected points, suggesting their performances haven't just been about luck. In terms of expected goals, they edge out Örebro with 1.64 to 1.33, painting a picture of a team more likely to capitalize on their chances. These metrics align with the most likely scorelines: a 1-1 draw at 12%, but also a 9% probability for a 1-2 away win, reinforcing the idea that Falkenberg could very well leave with all three points.

Head-to-head encounters between these two sides since 2024 are limited to just three matches, offering a less reliable gauge of future performance compared to current form and statistical analysis. With one win, one draw, and one loss apiece, history offers little in terms of predictive power. Instead, the focus should be on the current form and underlying metrics, which clearly favor the visitors.

Despite both teams preferring a possession-based approach, the hosts have been less effective in turning that control into tangible results. Falkenberg's unbeaten streak speaks volumes about their capability to execute their game plan effectively.

Expect a tight contest where goals are likely, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams finding the net. This could lead to a tactically intriguing battle, where Falkenberg's form and clinical edge might just tip the scales. The sharpest betting angle here is backing Falkenberg for the win, aligning with both form and model insights.

Örebro SK

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #13xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.43
Jetmir HalitiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Hampus SöderströmCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.01

Falkenberg

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Melker NilssonCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Oskar LindbergRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
Elias MohammadFxG 0.12 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Örebro SK – Falkenberg

Predicted score matrix

Falkenberg →

Örebro SK →

0–05.4%

0–18.1%

0–26.9%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.5%

1–111.5%

1–29.2%

1–35.0%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.5%

2–17.5%

2–26.1%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.0%

3–13.3%

3–22.7%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,33–1,64

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.05

Over 2,557%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Falkenberg to win46%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Falkenberg to win46%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Albin Andersson to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Albin Andersson to score24%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Falkenberg46% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+38%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg46% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+38%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg46% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+34%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Örebro SK	X	2 · Falkenberg
Betsafe	2.24	3.53	EV+ 38% 3.00
LeoVegas	2.18	3.45	EV+ 34% 2.90
Nordicbet	2.24	3.53	EV+ 38% 3.00

Odds updated 22 Oct, 03:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Örebro SK win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 2.55 to 2.18 (−15%).

1-15 %

44 %34 %

2.55 → 2.18

X-1 %

32 %22 %

3.50 → 3.45

2+18 %

39 %29 %

2.45 → 2.90

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Örebro SK 1Draw 1Falkenberg 1

Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Falkenbergs FF are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Örebro SK

Falkenberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Örebro SK (28–40)

Falkenberg (52–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Örebro SK

Falkenberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Örebro SK

Falkenberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Örebro SK	Falkenberg
Points	25	51
xPoints	30.6	38.7
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.23

Playing style	Örebro SK	Falkenberg
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.32
Field tilt	0.53	0.42
xT per match	1.4	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	29	27
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.72
Passes per match	428	400
Passes against per match	374	398
Switches of play per match	16	18.4
Long balls per match	29	33

Set pieces	Örebro SK	Falkenberg
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.16
Corners per match	5.1	4.2
Corners against per match	4.8	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.5

Other	Örebro SK	Falkenberg
Throw-in control	0.53	0.56

The goalkeepers	Jakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK)	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)
Saves	101	44
Save %	72%	64%
xG prevented	56%	50%
Claims	147 (90%)	131 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Örebro SK

Fixtures, form & tips

Falkenberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Örebro SK vs Falkenberg according to our model?

The model gives Falkenberg a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 30%, draw 24%, Falkenberg 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Örebro SK vs Falkenberg?

The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Örebro SK and 1.64 for Falkenberg, 2.97 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Örebro SK or draw (1X) 54%, Falkenberg or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.