Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig28 August 202622°0,3 mm18 km/h

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Ankara KeçiörengücüPossession control

2–2

ÜmraniyesporBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (57%)

1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 57%X 24%19% Ümraniyespor · 2

57%

24%

19%

Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Ümraniyespor

Marcus Johansson · 25 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Ankara Keçiörengücü's 57% win probability underscores their advantage against Ümraniyespor, shaped by a possession-focused style. The hosts have been efficient in converting control into tangible results, having bested the visitors in three of their last four encounters. While this head-to-head sample is small, Keçiörengücü's current form and expected goals figures of 1.82 further tilt predictions in their favor.

Ümraniyespor, with a balanced and physical approach, may find their 0.98 expected goals insufficient against a side that excels in quick transitions, evidenced by Keçiörengücü's 0.25 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball. Although both teams' scoring potential aligns at 53% for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, the visitors’ lower xG and points suggest they might struggle to assert themselves.

The model's lean towards Keçiörengücü aligns with a likely 1-0 or 2-0 result. However, for those seeking value, the over 3.5 goals market offers a 2% edge at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. While not a certainty, these odds imply a potential payout for those banking on an unexpectedly open match.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #13xT #18xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Francis EzehFxG 0.09 · xT 0.21
Mame DioufRWxG 0.52 · xT 0.03
Ibrahim AkdagCDMxG 0.53 · xT 0.07

Ümraniyespor

Form WLDLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #9xP/match #6Points #15

Key players

Cebio SoukouFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
Kerem SenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.32

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ankara Keçiörengücü 57% · Draw 24% · Ümraniyespor 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KeciörengücüBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,37fair 6,37-16 %

Miss

Matchresultat - ÜmraniyesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 17,45fair 21,60-19 %

Miss

Match prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Ümraniyespor

Predicted score matrix

Ümraniyespor →

Ankara Keçiörengücü →

0–06.4%

0–15.7%

0–22.9%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.7%

1–111.2%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.1%

3–16.0%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,82–0,98

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.90

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ankara Keçiörengücü to win57%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ankara Keçiörengücü to win57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score40%
Andrej Đokanović to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü	X	2 · Ümraniyespor
Betsafe	1.63	3.66	4.86
Betsson	1.63	3.66	4.86
Nordicbet	1.63	3.66	4.86

Odds updated 28 Aug, 07:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.04 to 1.90 (−7%).

1-3 %

62 %52 %

1.68 → 1.63

X+1 %

31 %21 %

3.62 → 3.66

2+7 %

23 %13 %

4.56 → 4.86

Over 2,5+6 %

57 %47 %

1.68 → 1.78

Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Ankara Keçiörengücü 3Draw 0Ümraniyespor 1

Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Ümraniyespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ankara Keçiörengücü (8–6)

Ümraniyespor (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Ümraniyespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Ümraniyespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Ümraniyespor
Points	4	2
xPoints	5.1	5.1
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1.3	0.86
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.07

Playing style	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Ümraniyespor
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.38	0.42
xT per match	0.69	1
xTA per match	0.95	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	21	15
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.14	0.14
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	15	17
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.82
Passes per match	249	380
Passes against per match	405	398
Switches of play per match	22.4	24.9
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Ümraniyespor
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	3.3	5.5
Corners against per match	4.9	5.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.71

Other	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Ümraniyespor
Throw-in control	0.58	0.63

The goalkeepers	Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)	Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)
Saves	10	10
Save %	63%	83%
xG prevented	36%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Fixtures, form & tips

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor according to our model?

The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 57%, draw 24%, Ümraniyespor 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.