Turkish 1. Lig23°1,7 mm21 km/h

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    IstanbulsporIstanbulsporPossession control
    1–1
    Fatih KaragümrükFatih KaragümrükPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Istanbulspor (38%)

    Istanbulspor – Fatih Karagümrük · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Istanbulspor 38%X 31%30% Fatih Karagümrük · 2

    Analysis: Istanbulspor – Fatih Karagümrük

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    With an expected goals tally of 1.63 to 1.19 in favor of Istanbulspor, the match against Fatih Karagümrük sets up as a battle of possession. Both sides prefer to control the ball, but Istanbulspor's slightly sharper attacking metrics suggest they might carve out the better chances. The most probable scoreline leans toward 1-1, nudging us toward a draw in what could be a tight contest, yet a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for the hosts remains very much in play.

    Fatih Karagümrük, despite having gathered more points this season and showing a knack for capitalizing quickly with an xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball at 0.17, might find it tougher to break down an Istanbulspor side that better suppresses expected goals against at 1.2 per match. This defensive solidity might just tip the scales in favor of the hosts, especially when the visitors' xGA stands at 1.6. The head-to-head sample is minimal, merely two matches, splitting wins, which doesn't heavily sway the analysis.

    The over/under 2.5 goals market teeters just over the halfway mark at 53%, suggesting a mild lean toward a match with more than two goals — a nod to both teams' vulnerabilities and attacking aspirations. However, with both teams to score at 56%, there's a subtle indication that defenses might not hold firm throughout.

    In betting terms, the standout angle lies with Istanbulspor. With a 38% chance of victory as rated by the model, odds of 2.8 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 7% value edge. This represents a calculated gamble on the home side's ability to exploit their slight statistical advantage in front of goal.

    IstanbulsporIstanbulspor
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #11xP/match #8Points #19
    Key players
    • Ömer Faruk DuymazFxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
    • Phellipe Cardoso AraújoFxG 0.90 · xT 0.33
    • Alieu ChamLWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.25
    Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #17xT #3xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Aleksandar PešićFxG 1.24 · xT 0.18
    • Tiago Süer Barbaros ÇukurLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
    • Barış Jakob KalaycıFxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Istanbulspor 38% · Draw 31% · Fatih Karagümrük 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - IstanbulsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,18fair 7,36+38 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Fatih KaragümrükBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,03fair 13,70-49 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Istanbulspor – Fatih Karagümrük

    Predicted score matrix

    Fatih Karagümrük →
    Istanbulspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–16.8%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–111.9%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–15.1%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,63–1,19
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.85
    Over 2,553%
    @1.83

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)72%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.76

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)72%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Abdullah Dıjlan Aydın to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Abdullah Dıjlan Aydın to score25%
    • Vefa Temel to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@3.10BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@3.10BetssonEV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · IstanbulsporX2 · Fatih Karagümrük
    Betsafe
    EV+ 19%
    3.10
    EV+ 3%
    3.29    		2.14
    Betsson
    EV+ 19%
    3.10
    EV+ 3%
    3.29    		2.14
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 19%
    3.10
    EV+ 3%
    3.29    		2.14

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 15:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    37 %27 %

    3.08 → 3.10

    X-5 %
    32 %22 %

    3.46 → 3.29

    2+3 %
    46 %36 %

    2.08 → 2.14

    Over 2,5+5 %
    56 %46 %

    1.75 → 1.83

    Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Istanbulspor 1Draw 0Fatih Karagümrük 1
    Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Istanbulspor
    Fatih Karagümrük
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Istanbulspor (4–8)
    Fatih Karagümrük (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Istanbulspor
    Alp Tutar: 100 passningar, xT 0.14TutarDijlan Aydin: 92 passningar, xT -0.01AydinDuran Şahin: 92 passningar, xT 0.13ŞahinMichael Ologo: 79 passningar, xT 0.04OlogoYusuf Ozer: 78 passningar, xT 0.18OzerFatih Tultak: 73 passningar, xT 0.46TultakIsa Dayakli: 66 passningar, xT 0DayakliIlian Ilianov Iliev: 57 passningar, xT 0.15IlievPhellipe Cardoso Araújo: 56 passningar, xT 0.48AraújoOzcan Sahan: 52 passningar, xT 0.16SahanMuhlis Dağaşan: 48 passningar, xT 0.04Dağaşan
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 136 passningar, xT 0.3YalçınDavide Biraschi: 104 passningar, xT 0.35BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 75 passningar, xT -0.03SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 74 passningar, xT 0.14KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 61 passningar, xT 0.16AkbabaBarış Jakob Kalaycı: 56 passningar, xT 0.08KalaycıMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 52 passningar, xT 0.91SarıkayaTiago Süer Barbaros Çukur: 47 passningar, xT 0.25ÇukurMarco Silvestri: 46 passningar, xT 0.13SilvestriDorukhan Toköz: 42 passningar, xT 0.03ToközRamazan Civelek: 32 passningar, xT 0.14Civelek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Istanbulspor
    Alp Tutar: 100 passningar, xT 0.14TutarDijlan Aydin: 92 passningar, xT -0.01AydinDuran Şahin: 92 passningar, xT 0.13ŞahinMichael Ologo: 79 passningar, xT 0.04OlogoYusuf Ozer: 78 passningar, xT 0.18OzerFatih Tultak: 73 passningar, xT 0.46TultakIsa Dayakli: 66 passningar, xT 0DayakliIlian Ilianov Iliev: 57 passningar, xT 0.15IlievPhellipe Cardoso Araújo: 56 passningar, xT 0.48AraújoOzcan Sahan: 52 passningar, xT 0.16SahanMuhlis Dağaşan: 48 passningar, xT 0.04Dağaşan
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 136 passningar, xT 0.3YalçınDavide Biraschi: 104 passningar, xT 0.35BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 75 passningar, xT -0.03SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 74 passningar, xT 0.14KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 61 passningar, xT 0.16AkbabaBarış Jakob Kalaycı: 56 passningar, xT 0.08KalaycıMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 52 passningar, xT 0.91SarıkayaTiago Süer Barbaros Çukur: 47 passningar, xT 0.25ÇukurMarco Silvestri: 46 passningar, xT 0.13SilvestriDorukhan Toköz: 42 passningar, xT 0.03ToközRamazan Civelek: 32 passningar, xT 0.14Civelek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
    Points16
    xPoints4.34.3
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match1.21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.310.21
    Playing styleIstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.530.39
    xT per match0.951.2
    xTA per match0.81.7
    Won balls, offensive half2024
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.2
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against1117
    Pass completion %0.780.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.72
    Passes per match335287
    Passes against per match369476
    Switches of play per match29.116.1
    Long balls per match3930
    Set piecesIstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
    xG from free kicks0.110.12
    Corners per match2.92.7
    Corners against per match3.67
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.780.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.65
    OtherIstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
    Throw-in control0.760.72
    The goalkeepersAlp Tutar (Istanbulspor)Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)
    Saves913
    Save %53%77%
    xG prevented29%81%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Istanbulspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Istanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?

    The model gives Istanbulspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istanbulspor 38%, draw 31%, Fatih Karagümrük 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.