Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig28 August 202623°1,1 mm23 km/h

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PendiksporCounter-attacks & crosses

1–1

BandırmasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Pendikspor (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.21 (+2 %)

1 · Pendikspor 39%X 32%29% Bandırmaspor · 2

39%

32%

29%

Analysis: Pendikspor – Bandırmaspor

Anna Karlsson · 25 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The hosts and unsupported "home" claim aside, here's the corrected text:

Bandırmaspor's impressive unbeaten streak of 15 league matches forms a compelling narrative as they face off against Pendikspor. Despite this, the head-to-head record since 2024 paints a different picture. With only four encounters between them, Pendikspor has managed a win and a draw against Bandırmaspor's two victories. Although this historical data may seem informative, its small sample size makes it less influential compared to the current form and expected goals.

The statistics underscore a strategic clash between Pendikspor's counter-attacking style and Bandırmaspor's preference for possession. Pendikspor is given a slight edge by the model, which predicts a 39% chance of victory for Pendikspor compared to 29% for Bandırmaspor. Yet, the draw emerges as the most probable outcome, with a 32% likelihood. The most likely scorelines further emphasize the probability of a stalemate, with 1-1 leading the way at 13%.

Pendikspor's expected goals stand at 1.36 against Bandırmaspor's 1.09. However, Bandırmaspor exhibits a stronger defensive profile with an xGA of 0.75 compared to Pendikspor's 1.5. This defensive solidity could prove crucial, especially as the likelihood of both teams scoring is pegged at just 50%. The over 2.5 goals market also leans under, with only a 44% chance of crossing that threshold, suggesting a tight and possibly low-scoring affair.

From a betting perspective, the draw presents notable value across multiple bookmakers. With odds of 3.14 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, punters have a decent opportunity to capitalize on an outcome that the model rates at 32%. While no edge exists, the alignment of both probability and odds marks the draw as an attractive option in this fascinating matchup.

Pendikspor

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #5xP/match #15Points #10

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.02
Hakan YeşilRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.53
Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12

Bandırmaspor

Form DWWDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #19xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Gianni BrunoFxG 1.30 · xT 0.00
Amidou BadjiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pendikspor 39% · Draw 32% · Bandırmaspor 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BandirmasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,37fair 16,78-26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,59fair 10,78-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Pendikspor – Bandırmaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bandırmaspor →

Pendikspor →

0–09.0%

0–19.0%

0–25.1%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.4%

1–113.2%

1–27.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.0%

2–18.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.6%

3–14.0%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,36–1,09

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.71

Over 2,544%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Jonson Scott Clarke-Harris to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Jonson Scott Clarke-Harris to score22%
Atınç Nukan to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.21BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.21BetssonEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.21NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pendikspor	X	2 · Bandırmaspor
Betsafe	2.05	EV+ 2% 3.21	3.40
Betsson	2.05	EV+ 2% 3.21	3.40
Nordicbet	2.05	EV+ 2% 3.21	3.40

Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:44

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Pendikspor win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.34 to 2.05 (−12%).

1-12 %

47 %37 %

2.34 → 2.05

X+7 %

34 %24 %

3.01 → 3.21

2+13 %

34 %24 %

3.01 → 3.40

Over 2,5-2 %

52 %42 %

2.04 → 2.00

Nordicbet · 16 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Pendikspor 1Draw 1Bandırmaspor 2

Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Bandirmaspor are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pendikspor

Bandırmaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pendikspor (6–8)

Bandırmaspor (4–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Bandırmaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Bandırmaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pendikspor	Bandırmaspor
Points	4	5
xPoints	3	4.9
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	0.75
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.06

Playing style	Pendikspor	Bandırmaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.53	0.64
xT per match	1.2	0.6
xTA per match	1.1	0.55
Won balls, offensive half	17	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.31
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.8	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.78
Passes per match	367	414
Passes against per match	306	238
Switches of play per match	27.9	33.2
Long balls per match	42	50

Set pieces	Pendikspor	Bandırmaspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	3.6	2.6
Corners against per match	4.6	3.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.55

Other	Pendikspor	Bandırmaspor
Throw-in control	0.81	0.72

The goalkeepers	Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor)	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)
Saves	3	9
Save %	33%	90%
xG prevented	52%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pendikspor 39%, draw 32%, Bandırmaspor 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.